Alcatel-Lucent (ADR) (NYSE:ALU)

Good value, cutting costs and focusing on their core business.

Is it worth $1 or $4?

You decide...

Revenue will pick up with demand for the new router technology

Too big to fail. My rebound pick.

LTE and small cell adoption rates. Also, effectiveness of cost management.

With very little returns coming from the financial markets, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse must have been chafing at the bit to lend money to/ invest in ALU. Most definitely not the ´´cap in hand´´ scenario that some may think.

ALU is a high-cost producer of commoditized products, in a competitive marketplace, where buyers are in the driver's seat. In a continuation of a historical pattern, management remains mired in telco-think, refusing to move outside of a box of its own creation. The primary problem: love--love of control; love of their little fiefdoms. There are way too many people for what's being delivered. They are smart, sure; and they make good stuff. But other people are smart, too, and make equally good stuff. The vaunted Bell Labs, pride of the real, original, AT&T, has been surpassed. Workers at Bell Labs used to get free long distance phone calls, a nice perk. Nowadays, Google Talk provides the same perk to anybody with a gmail account.

Talk of licensing the 29000-strong patent portfolio is naive at best. There is no intrinsic value to a patent. In fact, the disclosures in a patent are quickly scanned by competitors, and shamelessly cloned if they are of any use. If you ever find out, you are free to sue for damages in the cloner's home country court system. After years of obfuscation and delay, and filing countless documents in a foreign language, you may even get a judgment in your favor. Damages! Great! Now, you are entitled to use the loser's legal/banking system to collect. After more years go by (and countless fees and percent reductions are applied), you might get a smallish check in the mail. My advice: hurry up and cash it--that's the "value" your patent has brought you.

Now, ALU turns to vulture capitalists to fund their labor-shedding task. My guess is that ALU management will not meet whatever deadline the Goldman folks have driven into the loan agreement, and a massive transfer of (nominal) value will be in the works.

YMMV.

Some layoffs - cutbacks - refinancing - and a couple of improving Qs.... this will make money.

Alcatel-Lucent has most certainly bottomed out. it may take some time, but this one is cheap enough to buy and sit on for a year or two while they get their act together. A recent partnership with Sprint shows some potential for a turn around.

Potential to outperform due to excellent products and know-how in certain domains like core and edge routers, small cells and wireless access. Condition is that the management gets its act together, or is being replaced (not only CEO, but also N-1 level).

Alcatel-Lucent is likely to suffer from the Chinese competition (e.g. Huawei). Weak cash generation and high level of debt is a very poor combination.

reports more reductions to its worldwide headcount of about 5,000 people. The company said it is leaving or restructuring unprofitable Managed Services contracts with related headcount decreases.

lets see what happens with their q2 report, but betting on a pop shortly.

After recent releases of new technology and earnings reports (and figuring what I know of this industry) I think this stock is finally ready for a pop.

Company is WAY under valued! Patents alone are worth $2.00 a share.

Look out. I am thinking $4 to $5 target on ALU

Great value pick, nice growth prospects with 4g, and recently became profitable. Every year is looking better and better with this company's financials, fundamentals, and intangible assets. Their debt problem is manageable now.

bought an Acatel cell phone-absolute JUNK-if this is what repreents their company, count me out

Great price!