Alexander's, Inc. (NYSE:ALX)

SuperPicks (29.64) Submitted: 3/17/2010 2:44:27 AM : Start Price: $284.07 ALX Score: -25.11

This is a part of 4 part pure downthumb play on REIT here on CAPs (entered 3/16/2010):
in order from most overvalued to least: AEC, TCO, HME, ALX

The first two (AEC &TCO) appear to be sure-deal underperforms IMO.

The stock charts on each of these have done fairly well during the past 5 years, 3years, and past 1 year. Additionally they have done much better than their other REIT counterparts. The market has bet each of these have some fundamental (location, property type, income levels, debt structure, etc) significantly better than the rest of the pack. Now this may be true, but not at these valuations pal.
I'll reference snippets of profile (from Reuters website) of each that are valid reminders for me:
AEC:
multifamily real estate. The properties the Company owns are concentrated in Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Florida, Indiana, Virginia and Maryland. As of December 31, 2009, approximately 32%, 24%, 14%, 10%, 7%, 7% and 6% of the units in properties it owns were located in Ohio, Michigan, Georgia, Florida, Indiana, Virginia and Maryland, respectively.

TCO:
Regional/Super-regional shopping centers. The centers are located in metropolitan areas, including Atlantic City, Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, Orlando, Phoenix, San Francisco, Tampa and Washington, District of Columbia.

HME:
East coast. Has been conservative and has desirable type rentable communities (not luxury spots so relatively inexpensive to rent).
Owns, operates, acquires, develops and rehabilitates apartment communities. The Company's properties are regionally focused, primarily in selected Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Florida markets along the East Coast of the United States.

ALX:
The Company is managed by, and its properties are leased and developed by Vornado Realty Trust (Vornado). As of December 31, 2009, the Company had seven properties in the greater New York City metropolitan area. It consisted of the 731 Lexington Avenue property, the Kings Plaza Regional Shopping Center, the Rego Park I shopping center, the Rego Park II property, the Paramus property and the Flushing property.

The 731 Lexington Avenue property, a 1,307,000 square foot multi-use building, comprises the entire square block bounded by Lexington Avenue, East 59th Street, Third Avenue and East 58th Street in Manhattan. The Kings Plaza Regional Shopping Center contains 1,351,000 square feet and is located on Flatbush Avenue in Brooklyn. The Rego Park I shopping center contains 351,000 square feet and is located on Queens Boulevard and 63rd Road in Queens, New York. The Rego Park II property, a 600,000 square foot shopping center is located adjacent to the Rego Park I property in Queens, New York.

tcuwhit (45.55) Submitted: 5/6/2009 5:40:42 PM : Start Price: $252.04 ALX Score: -12.03

ALX owns property in NYC. The entire landscape of the city will change since thousands upon thousands of high paying jobs have completely vanished b/c of the recession and increased government regulation, as well as a liberal government that is doing its best to stifle business growth. That coupled with a company that has a 7to1 leverage ratio and couldnt make money if it tried makes me think that this stalk is way over valued. This is my one short pick for this quarter

OldEnglish (27.97) Submitted: 3/25/2009 8:32:32 AM : Start Price: $164.20 ALX Score: -75.39

Leveraged to the hilt in a laughably socialist and crumbling state.

Tastylunch (29.61) Submitted: 3/3/2009 12:42:18 AM : Start Price: $131.21 ALX Score: -112.55

Reggie Middleton
http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/01/short-stocks-middleton-personal-finance-investing-ideas_reggie.html?partner=yahootix

streetflame (30.57) Submitted: 1/26/2009 12:34:06 AM : Start Price: $186.30 ALX Score: -50.18

Already negative free cash flow is going into overdrive once commercial real estate starts to melt down. Also look how overpriced it is compared to SL Green.

sunfarmer (< 20) Submitted: 3/14/2008 4:38:30 PM : Start Price: $308.85 ALX Score: -18.30

new york real estate!

Jro81 (91.48) Submitted: 11/14/2007 1:20:44 PM : Start Price: $355.09 ALX Score: -17.69

So much debt 10x the enterprize value ... Can you say bankrupt !!

NeroSagetrade (93.97) Submitted: 10/14/2007 6:17:35 PM : Start Price: $381.53 ALX Score: -14.29

Alexanders is not a poor company, its just the wrong company in the wrong place at the wrong time in the financial take of things. Alexanders is responsible for leasing, renovating and turning over real estate, generally condominiums, and the market for condos has dried up just as quickly as the housing market has. A recent earnings take shows earnings declined 50% and they should decline further. At 10 times sales, and a staggering 30 times book, I cant see this outpacing the market in this environment.

Nero

Sagetrade

hotredman (< 20) Submitted: 3/15/2007 11:33:32 PM : Start Price: $363.25 ALX Score: +7.66

grate ideer i give a high 5