Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALXN)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A biotechnology company working to develop and deliver life-changing drug therapies for patients with serious and life-threatening medical conditions.

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Member Avatar pchop123 (79.57) Submitted: 7/13/2014 6:55:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $164.32 ALXN Score: -0.07

upside in price very likely

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Member Avatar BigFatBEAR (29.24) Submitted: 7/9/2014 4:22:34 PM : Outperform Start Price: $161.62 ALXN Score: +0.37

Too rich for my real cash at this level, but loved enough by informed folks, such as zzlangerhans, to make me a watcher. Low beta, which could be quite handy in a selloff, but I'm guessing this thing will kiss $100 someday in the next year or two, what with biotech being volatile and all.

Appears to be one of the best-of-breed in the sector, so if you're going to own individual stocks instead of IBB, might as well go this route.

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Member Avatar 1russianguy (63.32) Submitted: 6/9/2014 3:28:22 PM : Outperform Start Price: $167.83 ALXN Score: -3.21

BG grade of A(27)

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Member Avatar poluh2k (48.01) Submitted: 6/9/2014 8:44:39 AM : Underperform Start Price: $170.02 ALXN Score: +4.56

p/e 103
p/s 12
p/fcf 89
not good for long and not bad for short

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Member Avatar SnowBawl (< 20) Submitted: 5/5/2014 9:35:59 AM : Outperform Start Price: $155.11 ALXN Score: +0.08

13 classic growth stocks (Sterman).

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.75) Submitted: 3/24/2014 7:47:15 PM : Outperform Start Price: $150.34 ALXN Score: +2.38

Is biopharma a bubble? Traders don't really know or care about bubbles. They really want to know if the sector is going up or down, preferably in the shortest possible time frame. What matters more than the question of whether the biopharma sector is in a bubble (it undoubtedly is), is whether the bubble is still inflating or if it is popping. If two or three down days in a row meant a popping bubble, this bubble has already popped five times in the last year. What's happened instead is that the bubble let out a little air, sealed the hole, and went on to re-expand to new diameters of bubbliciousness.

I think it's a mistake to lump all stocks in the sector together. There's unquestionably a large contingent of small cap stocks that have increased their caps dramatically while having proven absolutely nothing regarding their ability to eventually successfully commercialize a new drug. Biocryst? Prana? Galectin? Cardiome? I'm hundreds of points underwater on all of these yet I still see no sign of positive cash flow on the horizon for any of them. On the other hand, there are midcap stocks like BioMarin, Vertex, Pharmacyclics, and Alkermes whose share prices have popped over the last coule of years but have the revenues and potential to back up their market capitalizations. These should be the refuge for traders who want to profit from dips without exposing themselves to too much additional risk.

Ironically, most ascribe the latest shakiness in biopharma to one of its strongest players, Gilead. Gilead's high pricing of hepatitis C drug Sovaldi is being questioned by Congress. Perhaps Gilead will have to back down on the price. Regardless, Sovaldi won't be cheap and Gilead has a large number of other products at both the commercialization stage and in development. I don't follow the company closely, but I wouldn't bet against them and I wouldn't use their current travails as a reason to bet against the biopharma sector.

Alexion is another powerhouse down almost 20% from recent highs this month. I thought Alexion's rough treamtent was just overflow from sector instability, but a Seeking Alpha article today claims that traders fear Congressional concerns on Sovaldi pricing will spread to Alexion's Soliris. If that's truly the reason Alexion has been disproportionately affected by sell-off, I think this will present a buying opportunity once it levels off. The Soliris train left the station long ago. US, European, and many ROW payors have been coughing up the exorbitant 400K/yr cost of Soliris for almost seven years. I was skeptical about Soliris' pricing myself (see my early red thumbs on Alexion from years ago) but eventually I had to believe the revenue trend. That trend has shown no signs of slowing, with 442M booked last quarter and 1.55B in 2013. Alexion hasn't sat on their laurels either, demonstrating new indications for Soliris and developing new ultraorphan drug candidates.

So will US politicians suddenly decide to attack established ultraorphan drug pricing while they're harassing Gilead? I think that's doubtful. While Soliris is five times as expensive as Sovaldi, it is used in so few patients that the overall layout of resources is much less. Payors historically haven't resisted the pricing of these drugs. Expect the market to quickly forget these concerns after one or two more quarters of revenue outperformance from Alexion, and the share price to bounce back and catch up with the previous trend.

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Member Avatar TerryFool (< 20) Submitted: 3/7/2014 10:51:40 AM : Outperform Start Price: $164.85 ALXN Score: -5.39

BUY@ 165 1YR EPS 130% 2YR EPS 200% TP 188

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Member Avatar Dudeone (93.97) Submitted: 2/12/2014 6:35:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $174.23 ALXN Score: -14.98

Soliris continuing to grow and good products in pipeline e.g. asfotase

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Member Avatar billyw10 (< 20) Submitted: 1/3/2014 6:26:30 PM : Outperform Start Price: $131.66 ALXN Score: +16.96

orphan drug alxn

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Member Avatar TerryHoodSr (48.28) Submitted: 5/29/2013 2:41:47 PM : Outperform Start Price: $93.87 ALXN Score: +53.72

3yr rev growth 36%

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Member Avatar CarlosDK (21.16) Submitted: 1/10/2013 8:12:04 AM : Underperform Start Price: $100.68 ALXN Score: -28.33

expensive on all valuations

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Member Avatar ayuddha (22.17) Submitted: 7/15/2012 5:18:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $96.87 ALXN Score: +23.53

It was picked by www.hechtsoft.de Trade Alerts.

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Member Avatar danrifenburgh (< 20) Submitted: 12/19/2011 1:25:55 PM : Outperform Start Price: $67.44 ALXN Score: +79.97

After a 60% run-up, this volatile stock seems due for a fall. TM P/E of 82.96 with expected earnings growth of 31.54% taking it to a forward P/E of 38.81 next year. ALXN also trades at a premium to S&P500 TTM P/E. The PEG stands at 2.24, this could suggest some overvaluation. The Price/Book is 11.62.

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Member Avatar rannici (< 20) Submitted: 10/27/2011 9:24:45 AM : Outperform Start Price: $67.84 ALXN Score: +86.94

just following the trend...

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Member Avatar tradingblues1 (49.57) Submitted: 10/13/2011 7:05:08 PM : Outperform Start Price: $68.08 ALXN Score: +78.84

soaring to the moon!!

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Member Avatar SIDRWC (59.47) Submitted: 9/28/2011 2:50:23 AM : Outperform Start Price: $67.62 ALXN Score: +74.81

The long-term potential growth for this company is astronomical... They seem to have incredible moment at this point, and is closely linked to stock-market turbulence. Very excited for this companies potential, and am buying in for the long hall.

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Member Avatar phatchips767 (< 20) Submitted: 7/25/2011 11:36:06 AM : Outperform Start Price: $58.67 ALXN Score: +132.03

ibd

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Member Avatar mrindependent (89.20) Submitted: 11/24/2010 1:30:43 PM : Underperform Start Price: $38.21 ALXN Score: -264.49

Found this stock with a screen that looks for stocks that are stratospherically valued based on high expectations. CAPS score of 2 is higher than expected, which indicates that somebody likes this stock at this price. The deciding factor for me was the negative commentary from ZZLangerhans.

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Member Avatar CramersSkeeDaddy (97.89) Submitted: 10/13/2010 12:01:39 PM : Outperform Start Price: $34.08 ALXN Score: +313.60

biotech spec 3

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Member Avatar Witchdoctor78 (56.73) Submitted: 9/11/2010 10:06:30 PM : Outperform Start Price: $30.46 ALXN Score: +362.39

Upcommimg biotech with a first in class drug due to expand its fda indications. They have pricing power, an off the beaten path pipeline, international presence and good marketing reach in the US. They face no competition for their indications, think Genzyme, only more focused. Could be an acquisition too.

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