Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALXN)
A biotechnology company working to develop and deliver life-changing drug therapies for patients with serious and life-threatening medical conditions.
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Earnings report: 29 cents per share, up from a loss of 28 cents a year ago.
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PHARM STOCK
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One of few stocks in the world that seem just too expensive even though it operates in an industry outside of the FIRE sector of economy (FIRE = Financial, Insurance & Real Estate).
The valuation to earnings potential going forward is not worth it, nothing going for it on the dividend end, and there would be other companies in the sector that are much more desirable.
I'd sell this company to put my money elsewhere. In fact, I'd rather use that money and pour it across residential real estate, apartment buildings, other stocks, commodities, or bonds. Even if it survives the next decade, it will lag its peers and it will likely lag S&P 500.
SELL.
bearish on pbr, cog, io, mcf, chd, prgo, zep, psa, ccl, joe, celg, sndk, wms, brk-a, alxn, mygn, otex, apol, fun, uti, swn, goog, tm, bms, stec
These picks are within this CAPs account that is market neutral - all longs are offset by a short. All long & short picks are diversified across industries & world location to limit downside exposure. This CAPS account will maintain at the very least 20 picks and at the very most 80 picks. Picks will be ended in long/short pairs to remain neutral.
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One word: Soliris, nice upwards trending also.
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the time is right - solid company
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Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria -- extremely rare condition. Can Alexion justify an extremely high price for because of the rarity of the disease? Probably not. Notice that they are recording sales but not receiving cash. Their accounts receivables are going up, because they are not collecting payment. I think it will be very difficult to get insurance to cover soliris, especially at the current price-- if they do cover it, they will negotiate extreme discounts, e.g. paying only 20-30% of alexions's charge. Expect only about 30% of their accounts receivables to ultimately be converted to cash.
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One might wonder why the run-up in price of a company whose claim to fame is just one orphan drug for a rare disease abbreviated PNH? I believe it's because of the future promise of this drug against diseases for which there has not been much successful intervention to date, such as Rheumatoid Arthritis. If this drug is found to work against diseases which ravage a large section of the human population, then ALXN may have found a huge future revenue stream.
What they need to do now, is find a way to develop those potential drugs, or partner - or perhaps sell themselves - to a larger company with the resources to do such development. I believe that's what drives the current interest in the stock. This is not a new thesis, and I feel most of this is baked into the stock price, so unless some even more endearing factual info. comes out, The stock will likely tread sideways for a while. If nothing happens in the next 3-6 mos., we might even see the stock price head lower.
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Reuters, 10/4/07:
In a departure from the current status quo, Presidential front runner Senator Hillary Clinton would support stem cell funding and research.
That would be a boon for research efforts and for companies such as ALXN, which specializes in the development of biologic therapeutic products for the treatment of hematologic and cardiovascular disorders, auto-immune diseases, and cancer.
Alexion stock has endured negative earnings, and the P/S is 147. Any change in official policy could put this company and stock on a rocket ride to the moon. Buy and hold long.
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I valuate this one at 351% intrinsic value.
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Watch this thing go down.Muaahhh.Small rev,many shares,big talk=down
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Cash burning machine.
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I believe that this company's new cancer drug will draw in many investors over the next few months and the drug itself, which is in FDA review, looks like a definite winner. I suspect this stock to hit $65 , maybe as high as $80 by Q4 07.
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Overbought - Will correct sharply
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