Ambarella (NASDAQ:AMBA)

CAPS Rating: 4 out of 5

AMBA News and Commentary

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1,020 Outperform
19 Underperform
 

All-Star Players

188 Outperform
6 Underperform
 

Wall Street

4 Outperform
1 Underperform
 

Top AMBA Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

grmind (66.41)
Submitted February 02, 2016

Seriously. Look at the performance of this company across the board in every metric, its moat in video technology, and the skill of its management team (ROE,ROA). Then look at its stock performance. Tell me what you see. Anyone think video is going… More

roolbreakers (98.78)
Submitted August 02, 2015

amb

AMBA VS S&P 500 (SPY)

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Recent Community Commentary

Read the most recent pitches from players about AMBA.

Recs

0
Member Avatar Staka (96.15) Submitted: 10/7/2017 4:56:47 AM : Underperform Start Price: $49.92 AMBA Score: -14.82

MRS82:3

Recs

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Member Avatar CMFFrankDip (< 20) Submitted: 9/27/2017 2:32:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $49.12 AMBA Score: +14.87

The company's new computer vision line of products will propel it to new heights as the SOCs will have applications in robots, security cameras, ans last but not least autonomous vehicles. AMBA's products will have advantages around cost, low light operation, low power requirements, and real-time computing capability. The company designed the silicon around its software stack to optimize device performance.

Recs

0
Member Avatar ROEoutshinesGOLD (99.82) Submitted: 9/1/2017 7:47:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $45.81 AMBA Score: -3.85

Ambarella Follows a Strong Quarter With Disappointing Guidance (Again) - The Motley Fool:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/09/01/ambarella-follows-a-strong-quarter-with-di.aspx
or (iOS News app):
https://apple.news/AF4HuRBeQPRSoGgLl0ak1gA
Steve Symington (TMFSymington) Sep 1, 2017 at 9:00AM:

‘“
…Ambarella management stated it now expects full fiscal-year 2018 revenue to be down 3% to 7% from the prior year, representing a reduction from their previous forecast for revenue to be roughly flat from last fiscal year, plus or minus 3%.

According to CFO George Laplante, the blame for that reduction lies with a combination of lower-priced drones impacting the premium drone segment, continued weakness from Tier 2 drone customers, lower-than-expected growth from the newer virtual reality market, and a recent shortage of certain memory components that could impact camera build schedules for certain customers. Incidentally, Laplante added the latter culprit will be partially offset by higher-than-anticipated revenue from GoPro in the second half. But all told, non-GoPro revenue growth for the year is now expected to be a modest 9% to 12%.
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Why Ambarella, Inc. Stock Plunged (-22.4%) Today - The Motley Fool:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/09/01/why-ambarella-inc-stock-plunged-today.aspx
or (iOS News app):
https://apple.news/Amz7Vp8aMO_m6gkpsqSWjuA
Steve Symington (TMFSymington) Sep 1, 2017 at 12:33PM:

‘“
Shares of AMBA were down 21.2% as of 11:30 a.m. EDT Friday after the video processing chip company announced solid fiscal second-quarter 2018 results, but reduced its full-year revenue outlook.

Ambarella's revenue for the quarter climbed 10% year over year to $71.6 million, driven by growth from the IP security and OEM automotive markets, while adjusted gross margin fell 410 basis points year over year to 63%. Both figures compared favorably to Ambarella's latest guidance, which called for revenue of $69 million to $72 million and adjusted gross margin of between 62% and 63.5%. …
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[—]

AMBA CFO George Laplante:
"…lower-priced drones impacting the premium drone segment…"
^
That line got me thinking about the possibility that AMBA is over-serving the drone market and it is being disrupted from below. Perhaps it is time to sell?:

1) “If disruptive — buy. When they hit the high-end of the market — sell.”
— Clayton M. Christensen:
^
(@ 2min mark in): video about his "idiot simple" portfolio algorithm and why disruptive companies can be misprized:
https://youtu.be/Bas2Dw4lcfM
+
2) A very specific definition of Disruptive Innovation — Clayton M. Christensen:
https://youtu.be/qDrMAzCHFUU
^
‘“
Disruptive innovation is not a breakthrough inovation that makes good products a lot better. It has a very specific definition. That is it transforms a product that historically was so expensive and complicated that only a few people with a lot of money and a lot of skill had access to it. The Disruptive Innovation makes it so much more affordable and accessible that a much larger population have access to it.
„„
+
3) Clayton Christensen’s new theory is meant to protect you from disruption - Quartz:
https://qz.com/801706/innovation-guru-clayton-christensens-new-theory-will-help-protect-you-from-disruption/
or (iOS News app):
https://apple.news/ADO046jqrQPiuT_2d95FbmQ
^
‘“
What we didn’t anticipate, and what in many ways was a fault of mine, was that the term disruption has so many different connotations in the English language, that it allows people to justify whatever they want to do as, “Oh, this is disruptive,” and they don’t ever read the book. The population of people where the fewest have read the book are venture capitalists. They are arrogant and smart and why do they need to read something?

[Princeton psychologist] Daniel Kahneman has this book Thinking Fast and Slow, and in the language he uses, there is type 1 activity and type 2 activity. What a brilliant idea, because it forces you to go back to see what is type 1 or what is type 2. Instead of calling it disruptive and sustaining innovation, if I had called it type 1 innovation and type 2 innovation, it would have forced all of these people who have misused the term to read another paragraph.
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* more info:
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Video: book summary: "The Innovators Dilemma" a book written by Clayton M. Christensen :
https://youtu.be/yUAtIQDllo8
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Much longer (video) presentation of the dynamics involved in Disruptive Innovation: Clayton Christensen :
https://youtu.be/rpkoCZ4vBSI
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"Thinking, Fast and Slow" (a book aforementioned above by Christensen in interview with Quartz):
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow
+
1) animated book summary, part 1:
https://youtu.be/tiyTYGY5X3Y
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2) animated book summary, part 2:
https://youtu.be/Q_wBt5aSRYY

Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in AMBA.

Score Leader

RipeOldAge

RipeOldAge (< 20) Score: +783.22

The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in AMBA.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
RipeOldAge < 20 10/23/2012 Outperform 1Y $6.04 +867.68% +84.46% +783.22 1 Comment
bullshiite 29.27 10/15/2012 Outperform 5Y $6.35 +820.31% +81.78% +738.54 0 Comment
devilTHEORY 74.22 3/4/2013 Outperform 5Y $10.10 +478.61% +71.03% +407.58 0 Comment
Winnerfrommidlan 65.53 12/31/2012 9/9/2016 Outperform 5Y $11.00 +431.27% +86.42% +344.85 1 Comment
mkirkp49 59.42 12/31/2012 Outperform 1Y $11.00 +431.27% +86.42% +344.85 0 Comment
doctorskg 21.30 1/22/2013 Outperform 5Y $11.75 +397.36% +75.53% +321.83 0 Comment
largec 53.66 3/18/2013 Outperform 3W $12.37 +372.43% +67.51% +304.92 0 Comment
TMFHumbleServant 92.94 3/19/2013 Outperform 5Y $12.65 +361.98% +67.48% +294.49 1 Comment
dahlman1234 < 20 3/25/2013 Outperform 5Y $13.40 +336.12% +66.89% +269.23 1 Comment
lmkwin1 54.76 5/9/2013 Outperform 5Y $13.70 +326.57% +59.47% +267.10 0 Comment

Wall Street

See what the Wall Street professionals think, according to their public statements and filings.

Player Name Player
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
S&P
Gain
Score End Date Commentary
TrackJimCramer 85.18 5/2/2016 Underperform 3W $40.40 +44.65% +25.19% -19.46 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.18 6/11/2015 Outperform 3W $111.50 -63.77% -1.74% -62.03 5/2/2016 @ $40.40 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 85.18 3/31/2015 Underperform 3W $75.71 +47.27% +2.53% -44.74 6/11/2015 @ $111.50 0 Comment
trackchardan 31.69 12/5/2014 Underperform NS $53.02 +24.75% +1.14% -23.61 3/5/2015 @ $66.14 0 Comment
TrackStifel 93.76 12/3/2014 Outperform NS $53.31 +9.62% +25.60% -15.97 0 Comment
TrackPiperJaff 85.14 9/8/2014 Outperform NS $37.17 +57.22% +29.58% +27.64 0 Comment
TrackImperialCap < 20 9/3/2014 Outperform NS $35.61 +64.11% +29.29% +34.82 0 Comment
TrackWayneRogers 59.63 3/7/2014 Outperform 3M $31.50 +85.52% +38.30% +47.23 0 Comment
TrackBWS 97.34 1/14/2013 Underperform NS $12.79 -24.82% +3.23% +28.05 2/8/2013 @ $9.62 0 Comment

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