Amarin Corp plc (ADR) (NASDAQ:AMRN)
The Company is engaged in the research, development and commercialization of novel drugs for the treatment of central nervous system disorders.
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Vescepta , the companies one drug, is far superior to Lovaza its competitor, which has a 1.2 billion dollar market. Vescepta does not raise LDL (bad cholesterol) while Lovaza does. Vescepta might well be approved for tryglycerides 200-500, which Lovaza is not. And Vescepta has better decrease of Non-HDL cholesterol. It is a matter of time before this drug is a big hit, and the company successful. I am an Internist in practice for 30 years, and I know what I am saying. The 275 US sales reps have all received options etc that they stand to gain when the stock excels. I am backing this pick with significant money.
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FDA approval for fish oil? What else is going on here, are they selling the good parts of the company for what?
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Well, I exited my wrong way red thumb with a positive score and now I'm already in a hole with my right way green thumb. My 100% wrongness about Amarin seems to be continuing. However, in CAPS I call them as I see them and try and learn from my mistakes. Based on my prior performance with this stock, I won't be trading Amarin in either direction in real life.
If one steps back from the high-pitched controversy about the company's long-term prospects, the short-term issues seem more clear. Vascepa for severe triglyceridemia is definitely a leaky ship, with concerns about patent protection, generic/supplement competition, and the marketing capability of an inexperienced company. However, with the latest capital raise from Pharmakon the company should have sufficient cash reserves to weather a few stormy quarters. In the meantime, the pending sNDA for Vascepa in 200-500 should generate some upward momentum in the stock assuming the application is accepted. If the FDA refuses to file, Amarin is likely toast for the foreseeable future.
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Oh this is one is interesting - large consensus putting this one in 20s but for an NCE qualification that has little bearing on its performance - all star team in place to take this to finish line (much higher stock price) whatever it is
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Levered to the hilt. Playing this as a mean-reversion trade for any inflationary spikes.
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Despite NCE status, their highly potent fish oil will generate positive results for the company and will overtake GSK's Lovaza.
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Too much supply in market already. There is nothing unique about purified fish oil except marketing.
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no real competitors in this field
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The market is discounting the commercialization potential of its star drug and not accounitng for the excellent team behind this launch.
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This Biotech in the middle of some mistakes has a lot potential because discovered and owned one of best medicaments that will be thrilling for many people's cardiovascular problems.
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Vacepa is an extremely valuable asset Amarin has. I remain bullish on this stock given the CEO Joe Z's background with acquisitions. It is difficult to value the company given the uncertainty surrounding NCE status. Given the extended delay from the FDA, I believe that NCE will be granted in the end. The FDA may just simply be looking for a way to grant Amarin this designation. Furthermore, I believe that the acquisition talks will progress in a much more progressive manner once NCE status has been decided. At the current price, Amarin has great upside potential with limited downside risks.
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By a method I'm testing this should continue to see it's CAPS rating decline for a while due to inconsistent corporate performance.
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I expect that when the NCE decision comes out, the company will be sold. The premium will be about 100% if the decision is "No", and 200% if the decision is "Yes". This stock has only upside, IMHO.
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Priced well for what lies ahead, buyout or no.
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hyertiglyceridemic drug Vasepa approved by FDA needs NCE approval drug has no side affects cash and cash equivalents o $ 215.1M no cash outflow Questions about a take over
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Great product with Vascepa. High likelihood for acquisition by a bigger pharma (maybe AZN). Huge market potential.
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Major patents picked up for new cholesterol/triglyceride/heart drug. Looking at huge buyout offers from big pharmaceuticals, namely AstraZeneca in the $4-8 billion range. Share values set to double on buyout.
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Superior product.
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No NCE, sorry guys
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