Amyris, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMRS)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

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Member Avatar TMFBlacknGold (94.00) Submitted: 6/8/2015 4:59:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.00 AMRS Score: -20.19

My top pick and my top holding personally. The balance sheet is horrendous and management continues to overpromise and underdeliver, but after covering the industrial biotech sector more than anyone else in recent years two things have become readily apparent: 1) Production costs are perhaps the most important determining factor for a company's success; and 2) consumer products offer some of the best growth. Amyris has both working for it at the moment.

Production costs for it's flagship molecule (farnesene) have dropped from >$14 per liter a few years ago to <$2.50 per liter in early 2015. Better yet, production costs are trending to lower than $2 per liter by the end of 2015. Meanwhile, the introduction of in-house brands including Biossance (consumer cosmetics), Muck Daddy (industrial hand cleaner; competing with the ancient GoJo in a $400 million US market), Myralene (industrial solvents), and Novvi (lubricants and base oils) should catalyze growth for the foreseeable future while the bulk supply business develops. Then again, bulk supply of flavor & fragrance (F&F) molecules -- for which the platform is uniquely positioned to address -- could reach >$75 million in product sales by 2018. After $7.8 million in revenue in 3Q14 alone for the first F&F molecule, I think investors can be optimistic about F&F.

The problem here is that Mr. Market has yet to pick up on the improvements, still placing Amyris in the penalty box for past hiccups that have since been addressed. The company paid the price financially, but if product sales ramp as expected in 2H15 and early 2016 then investment banks and institutional investors would be much more confident, providing new capital in future raises at more favorable terms.

Most investors are also unaware of the significance of an impending decision from Total SA, also beneficial owner of >25% of Amyris. If the French oil & gas company decides to pursue both diesel and jet fuel using Amyris' platform, then all $105 million in debt provided by Total over the years is extinguished from Amyris' balance sheet and converted into equity in the fuels joint-venture. That's 1/3 of the debt currently on the balance sheet.

If that occurred, Amyris would likely turn around and raise an equal or greater amount of debt (on more favorable terms) to pay off less favorable debt, fund operations and growth, and/or fund the completion of the two SMA facilities that will grow production capacity by 400%. If that occurred at the same time growing consumer products and falling production costs enabled cash flow positive operations, well, Amyris would become a much different investment.

At about $2 per share and <$200 million market cap (the correct metric to consider given the coming dilution) Amyris is a sweet risk worth taking.

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Member Avatar rbitrage (88.08) Submitted: 10/13/2014 9:56:10 PM : Underperform Start Price: $3.13 AMRS Score: +60.75

No tangible book. No profits in the last year and no earnings in the last year. Currently anything speculative is being punished severely in the market. Expect AMRS to be punished, too.

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Member Avatar MaxPower13 (97.69) Submitted: 3/24/2014 12:31:00 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.61 AMRS Score: -69.68

Just read Maxx's article. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/03/12/can-amyris-inc-save-deep-sea-sharks-and-expand-thi.aspx At this price, I think it's worth taking a shot.

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Member Avatar SqwiiTrader (< 20) Submitted: 2/18/2014 2:17:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.67 AMRS Score: -70.77

Senholt

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Member Avatar rknapton (< 20) Submitted: 7/23/2013 8:22:55 PM : Underperform Start Price: $2.82 AMRS Score: +67.41

Short. Former Biopharma company, now specialty chem. Revs down 73% Issuing tons of stock and debt.

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Member Avatar oregonpb (38.69) Submitted: 2/16/2012 12:04:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.20 AMRS Score: -129.28

Biofuel>> until the company produces for the market it will be speculative, but when it does it might be too late to get in ~early.

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Member Avatar powerkiwi (< 20) Submitted: 1/23/2012 4:46:30 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.46 AMRS Score: -145.40

Its a strong company with many potential technologies. Green tech is growing rapidly

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Member Avatar GeoSteam (21.05) Submitted: 1/20/2012 11:15:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.41 AMRS Score: -144.46

It is a biochemical company which can turn plant sugars into more valuable commodities using designer microbes, an entirely new human capability. The company is ran by idealistic, practical leaders, with special strength in several nations, e.g. Brazil.

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Member Avatar phboyer (< 20) Submitted: 9/30/2011 2:16:55 PM : Outperform Start Price: $19.85 AMRS Score: -175.76

AMRS is undervalued at these levels. There is resistance at the $20.50 level. If it breaks $21 is could squirt all the way to $30 in no time. They are well backed and respected in the VC community.

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Member Avatar korhonen (62.43) Submitted: 2/20/2011 1:48:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $29.97 AMRS Score: -152.48

On the cusp of profitability and have gained capital through the IPO.

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Member Avatar EclecticRecluse (81.37) Submitted: 1/30/2011 3:37:38 AM : Underperform Start Price: $31.12 AMRS Score: +158.90

Weakening Earnings Opinion

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Member Avatar TMFRisingStars (44.70) Submitted: 1/28/2011 11:39:18 AM : Outperform Start Price: $31.70 AMRS Score: -158.63

Here's the buy rec:
http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2011/01/27/rising-star-buy-amyris-biotechnologies.aspx

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Member Avatar TheGrtGdOM (58.39) Submitted: 11/6/2010 3:01:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $17.38 AMRS Score: -162.54

The long term arc is that oil is going to cost more and more to extract. This company's products OTOH need no refining and have an abundantly available feedstock. They can be shunted into pathways for use as gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel substitutes and exceed the original's performance. And eventually aviation will be charged for its carbon emissions as well, justifying an additional premium for this alternative.

Meanwhile the company will eke by at first by producing other specialty products as they get their production costs down and the costs of oil and associated with its use go up. I suspect that "capital light" may even eventually mean selling just the bugs as IP.

A long term play but worth it for an investor with tolerance for risk and a long term horizon.

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