Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

Once simply an online purveyor of books, Amazon.com has become a marketplace for just about anything you’d want to buy.

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Member Avatar davidm9999 (66.04) Submitted: 5/21/2015 3:16:50 PM : Underperform Start Price: $432.78 AMZN Score: +1.06

Trading at 18X book value

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Member Avatar chessman777 (62.10) Submitted: 5/15/2015 11:36:23 AM : Outperform Start Price: $425.19 AMZN Score: +0.11

innovation and a market leader

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Member Avatar bat3 (62.47) Submitted: 5/12/2015 11:00:41 PM : Outperform Start Price: $429.98 AMZN Score: -1.74

biggest freggin' company in the universe.
investing extensively in infrastructure that I think will make it bulletproof and untouchable in the near future.
Company has the resources to diversify in a big way through large scale acquisition of market leaders of emerging (and why not established?) industries.

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Member Avatar HayZeus (39.85) Submitted: 5/8/2015 2:28:11 PM : Outperform Start Price: $432.51 AMZN Score: -1.79

The Worldwide Monopoly Store

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Member Avatar GandDConnection (< 20) Submitted: 5/4/2015 7:19:54 PM : Outperform Start Price: $424.06 AMZN Score: -0.08

We were comparing Amazon.com to K12, trying to decide which stock we preferred over the next 3+ years. This one was easy: Only one of these companies has seriously rising sales, and CASH FLOW. In addition to Amazon's big top line and cash flow, its high R&D spend impresses us — more than tripling over the past three years. We believe in Jeff Bezos, *rainmaker*. By contrast, K12 trades below 1x sales, suggesting the market has a lack of faith in its business. Former CEO Ron Packard jumped ship for a Dubai investing firm, implying the founder didn’t see a lot to like there, either. As a college student, we also see clearly how Amazon Student offers the equivalent of free Prime for a time for college students and is ubiquitous, at least on our college campus.

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Member Avatar slenker99 (61.21) Submitted: 4/30/2015 1:53:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $424.80 AMZN Score: -1.15

They sell more of everything than anyone else without the overhead. Expansion easy with new prime like offerings, premium subscriptions, digital, ...

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Member Avatar Whamo (< 20) Submitted: 4/27/2015 9:52:27 AM : Outperform Start Price: $445.12 AMZN Score: -4.26

Amazon's delivery systems promise profits.

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Member Avatar ERojo (< 20) Submitted: 4/27/2015 9:03:02 AM : Underperform Start Price: $426.75 AMZN Score: +1.03

bubble

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Member Avatar APPLEGIS (57.49) Submitted: 3/30/2015 2:00:04 AM : Outperform Start Price: $371.87 AMZN Score: +12.10

I think APPLE is hoarding cash of the World VS IT lawsuit. I wonder if the humans could win a law suit against AI, the CIA and the FBI?

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Member Avatar andrewtraylor (41.50) Submitted: 3/28/2015 5:48:22 PM : Outperform Start Price: $371.87 AMZN Score: +12.10

Ridiculous how people say this company doesn't make money when it has nearly 7 billion in operating cash flow. Bezos is a rainmaker and so is Amazon as long as he is running it.

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Member Avatar gt7255 (51.22) Submitted: 3/22/2015 10:28:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $378.07 AMZN Score: +11.89

Following historical trends 4th quarter earnings announcements give AMZN a huge bounce.

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Member Avatar thumbsUpFool (97.62) Submitted: 3/12/2015 10:20:08 PM : Underperform Start Price: $371.52 AMZN Score: -12.10

I am not a naysayer or a doomsday predictor. This market is in new territory though, and it WILL come down sooner, rather than later. There are two strong predictors of serious crashes and those are the Shiller PE (CAPE) and Warren Buffet's favorite Mkt Cap to GNP. The CAPE goes back further, so let's look at that. There have only been three times before now that the CAPE (price to last 10 yr avg earnings or "Cyclically Adjusted PE) has soared past 25x. The Great Depression, The Dot Com boom, and the Housing Boom. All three times the market plummeted back down. The average 3 yr annualized return following these peaks averages about -19%. High PE and negative PE stocks will be absolutely obliterated, and this is one of those. I am calculating based on historical averages that the likelihood the crash has already begun is 27%. It's still more in the markets favor than not that the climb will continue, but each month that passes will eventually tip that in the other direction.

So where are we going?
I don't know, I can only go on history, and history does not always repeat itself exactly the same way. I do know though that I have made many successful stock picks based on books I've read and my personal experiences. History was the sole basis of every one of these books and every one of the decisions I made...

When will the drop occur?
Again, I don't know, I can only guess based on the averages of the amount of time it has taken in the past. In the Great Depression, after the CAPE reached 25, the crash happened within approx 300 days. The market during the dotcom and housing booms started its decline more than 4 years after reaching 25x. It will most likely be somewhere in between but this is one of only 4 data points so many outcomes are possible.

I'm thumbsupfool, why the hell am I giving a thumbs down?

Because this is a seriously overvalued time. One of the greatest in US market history.

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Member Avatar rydechus (63.30) Submitted: 3/12/2015 7:27:29 AM : Outperform Start Price: $368.82 AMZN Score: +12.18

Amazon is great company with everything you could every want to buy with free 2 day shipping for prime customers. Stockholders are getting tired of them not being profitable and I think within a few years people will sell if they don't start making money.

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Member Avatar CantonTownship (34.82) Submitted: 3/8/2015 4:45:20 PM : Underperform Start Price: $378.40 AMZN Score: -10.49

AAA LOW SALE

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Member Avatar CellBlock9 (89.28) Submitted: 3/7/2015 11:18:24 AM : Outperform Start Price: $378.40 AMZN Score: +10.49

mgk, 380.09

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Member Avatar Dreadnought (49.56) Submitted: 2/28/2015 8:30:53 PM : Underperform Start Price: $380.85 AMZN Score: -11.24

Alice says to SALE this one for keeps, so I hope she is loading up of shares of GOOGL.

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Member Avatar Traveler000 (< 20) Submitted: 2/27/2015 6:57:33 PM : Outperform Start Price: $140.45 AMZN Score: +125.33

Simple, the Founder has a long-term vision and does not let quarter-to-quarter pressures drive the company. Amazon is getting ready to become the go-to place for everything. Soon they will replace sites like Angie's List for services on top of products.

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Member Avatar FutureMonkey (88.28) Submitted: 2/23/2015 3:57:42 PM : Outperform Start Price: $300.72 AMZN Score: +25.59

It is all about Amazon Prime Membership. Accelerating growth in members -- loyalty and increased purchases through the Amazon platform.

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Member Avatar jander2 (70.19) Submitted: 2/16/2015 11:57:41 AM : Outperform Start Price: $120.69 AMZN Score: +159.20

5

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Member Avatar Kidkerner (51.85) Submitted: 2/3/2015 9:37:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $358.38 AMZN Score: +14.88

Unlike any other in U.S. ecommerce. A powerhouse now and into the foreseeable future.

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