Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

Once simply an online purveyor of books, Amazon.com has become a marketplace for just about anything you’d want to buy.

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Member Avatar gt7255 (< 20) Submitted: 3/22/2015 10:28:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $378.07 AMZN Score: +0.67

Following historical trends 4th quarter earnings announcements give AMZN a huge bounce.

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Member Avatar thumbsUpFool (98.37) Submitted: 3/12/2015 10:20:08 PM : Underperform Start Price: $371.52 AMZN Score: -0.68

I am not a naysayer or a doomsday predictor. This market is in new territory though, and it WILL come down sooner, rather than later. There are two strong predictors of serious crashes and those are the Shiller PE (CAPE) and Warren Buffet's favorite Mkt Cap to GNP. The CAPE goes back further, so let's look at that. There have only been three times before now that the CAPE (price to last 10 yr avg earnings or "Cyclically Adjusted PE) has soared past 25x. The Great Depression, The Dot Com boom, and the Housing Boom. All three times the market plummeted back down. The average 3 yr annualized return following these peaks averages about -19%. High PE and negative PE stocks will be absolutely obliterated, and this is one of those. I am calculating based on historical averages that the likelihood the crash has already begun is 27%. It's still more in the markets favor than not that the climb will continue, but each month that passes will eventually tip that in the other direction.

So where are we going?
I don't know, I can only go on history, and history does not always repeat itself exactly the same way. I do know though that I have made many successful stock picks based on books I've read and my personal experiences. History was the sole basis of every one of these books and every one of the decisions I made...

When will the drop occur?
Again, I don't know, I can only guess based on the averages of the amount of time it has taken in the past. In the Great Depression, after the CAPE reached 25, the crash happened within approx 300 days. The market during the dotcom and housing booms started its decline more than 4 years after reaching 25x. It will most likely be somewhere in between but this is one of only 4 data points so many outcomes are possible.

I'm thumbsupfool, why the hell am I giving a thumbs down?

Because this is a seriously overvalued time. One of the greatest in US market history.

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Member Avatar rydechus (< 20) Submitted: 3/12/2015 7:27:29 AM : Outperform Start Price: $368.82 AMZN Score: +0.68

Amazon is great company with everything you could every want to buy with free 2 day shipping for prime customers. Stockholders are getting tired of them not being profitable and I think within a few years people will sell if they don't start making money.

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Member Avatar CantonTownship (55.14) Submitted: 3/8/2015 4:45:20 PM : Underperform Start Price: $378.40 AMZN Score: +0.68

AAA LOW SALE

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Member Avatar CellBlock9 (91.50) Submitted: 3/7/2015 11:18:24 AM : Outperform Start Price: $378.40 AMZN Score: -0.68

mgk, 380.09

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Member Avatar Dreadnought (59.25) Submitted: 2/28/2015 8:30:53 PM : Underperform Start Price: $380.85 AMZN Score: -0.12

Alice says to SALE this one for keeps, so I hope she is loading up of shares of GOOGL.

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Member Avatar Traveler000 (< 20) Submitted: 2/27/2015 6:57:33 PM : Outperform Start Price: $140.45 AMZN Score: +91.83

Simple, the Founder has a long-term vision and does not let quarter-to-quarter pressures drive the company. Amazon is getting ready to become the go-to place for everything. Soon they will replace sites like Angie's List for services on top of products.

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Member Avatar FutureMonkey (87.65) Submitted: 2/23/2015 3:57:42 PM : Outperform Start Price: $300.72 AMZN Score: +11.10

It is all about Amazon Prime Membership. Accelerating growth in members -- loyalty and increased purchases through the Amazon platform.

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Member Avatar jander2 (68.03) Submitted: 2/16/2015 11:57:41 AM : Outperform Start Price: $120.69 AMZN Score: +119.76

5

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Member Avatar Kidkerner (69.73) Submitted: 2/3/2015 9:37:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $358.38 AMZN Score: +2.96

Unlike any other in U.S. ecommerce. A powerhouse now and into the foreseeable future.

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Member Avatar BASSALDMF (51.16) Submitted: 2/1/2015 9:27:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $350.05 AMZN Score: +3.48

SPREADING FAST IN CHINA, ALIBABA IS DOOMED, YOU HEARD ME RIGHT JPMRGAN! WHO BUYS A SHARE ONLY IN THE COMPANY PROFIT RATHER THAN THE COMPANY ITSELF? ONLY A FOOL WILL BUY AND HOLD BABA, AFTER RAINING BILLIONS WHY NEEDS ANOTHER 10BIN BONDS? THEN ALL IS IN CAYMAN ISLAND, WHAT A PIRATE... STICK WITH AMAZON OF CHINA, IT WILL SPREAD LIKE FIRE...

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Member Avatar stocky5 (41.93) Submitted: 1/29/2015 9:51:21 AM : Underperform Start Price: $303.05 AMZN Score: -19.66

Overvalued and overbought.

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Member Avatar chauntey (58.44) Submitted: 1/28/2015 3:03:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $306.80 AMZN Score: +19.44

aaple, box, facebook,sbux

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Member Avatar HIcorp (45.89) Submitted: 1/26/2015 11:26:41 PM : Outperform Start Price: $304.50 AMZN Score: +20.88

Because I believe cable is dead.....and it killed it's self with bad service and overpriced everything.....I have amazon Prime for $7 month and netflix for $8 a month....and HBO and other channels will soon offer their own streaming service.....

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Member Avatar Sflbadaor (62.64) Submitted: 1/21/2015 6:42:32 PM : Outperform Start Price: $300.00 AMZN Score: +23.18

I like the sub 300 entry.

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Member Avatar rbitrage (74.14) Submitted: 1/6/2015 11:54:12 PM : Underperform Start Price: $297.50 AMZN Score: -22.93

Company makes hardly any money. Stock is no longer in the good graces of Wall Street. Now is time for the stock to deflate.

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Member Avatar TMFCavalier (79.84) Submitted: 1/5/2015 1:16:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $322.65 AMZN Score: +11.62

http://www.businessinsider.com/amazons-jeff-bezos-on-profits-failure-succession-big-bets-2014-12

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Member Avatar Deepblue22 (64.91) Submitted: 1/2/2015 4:02:31 AM : Outperform Start Price: $312.58 AMZN Score: +19.36

Trending down in 2014, but ecommerce will only trend up in the coming years.

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Member Avatar Icker (< 20) Submitted: 1/1/2015 2:02:24 PM : Outperform Start Price: $312.58 AMZN Score: +19.36

Dominant online retailer with the potential for a highly profitable cloud arm which already turns 5B in revenue.

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Member Avatar AwesomeOpossum (80.82) Submitted: 12/26/2014 11:19:14 PM : Outperform Start Price: $307.85 AMZN Score: +22.06

Who doesn't want their favorite video game delivered by a drone? With Amazon.com, the future really is now! As more and more customers get onboard with the great experience of buying from this amazing seller, the sky really will be the limit!

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