Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (NYSE:ANR)
The Company and its operating subsidiaries are engaged in the business of extracting, processing and marketing coal from deep and surface mines, located in the Central and Northern Appalachian regions of the United States.
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Recs
I got in with real money last year near $6, sold some and it's time to buy more below $7. Eventually it will take a long run up. Till then continue to buy and sell.
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AQ target, if not defiantly deep value.
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bought in RL at 7.50. Also own BTU and WLT...this is my trifecta play on the rebound in Coal. Let the cyclical bull market commence!
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Coal is dead
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Too much debt in balance sheet....
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Huge headwinds in demand, and a very unfriendly political climate, dead set on putting ANR out of business.
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We suffered an unusually warm winter in 2011/2012 and although there has been significant swithing from coal to natural gas for power generation as well as a slowdown in the Great China Build the glut in natural gas and coal supply will not last forever. Rigs have slowed it's production of ng and mines have been shut down. So in the interim, until demand comes upto supply, we will have low prices for both. IMO as fast as share prices fell so will they rise. I plan on being on the right side of this trade.
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I am hedging my prediction on a Romney victory. But even without it, natural gas prices will "necessarily sky-rocket" if we no longer use coal for electrical power generation. So, will coal stay around? Yes! And the price will rise as natgas rises.
ANR is well positioned to avoid anything close to bankruptcy with its current cash position and credit facility. It is trading at about 25% of its book value (and that's after taking a $2.5 bln hit to their balance sheet for goodwill and non-producing assets.
ANR is a double by year-end with a Romney win. Even with Obama we could see a move back above $9.
Recs
After a few weeks' observation, I started my position on ANR today. Small-money but I have the real faith that this stock has stabilized and is bound for a run.
China's local government started their own version of QE2 from weeks ago, and their coal inventories is going down for the first time in 10 months.
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Short-term rally
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Bottom fishing. Coal has secular headwinds for sure, but this company is actually cash flow positive (CFO) and has plenty of cash on its balance sheet to weather the storm. Banking on exports....
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Cash on hand has somehow been trending upward for the past two years at ANR. Coal can supply 500 years of energy and will come back sooner or later. The only factor is which companies have enough cash to weather the consolidation in the industry. ANR should be one of them.
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Oversold relative to book value.
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Why not at this point...
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ANR @ 14 and BTU @ 29
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Taking a gamble that coal stocks are oversold......
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http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/04/10/why-now-is-the-time-to-buy-coal.aspx
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_COAL_SURGING_EXPORTS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-04-10-14-27-17
Recs
This is shaping up to be a deep value buy, manageable liabilites, no pension obligations, book value about 2x recent trading prices. Coal will be here for a very long time, providing electricity, heat and being purchased from the emergings & europeans for the same purpose. I like it. Building a position.
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Beaten down as Massey acquisition hasn't gone exactly peachy-king. Operating income has weakened due to costs associated with restructuring, reducing staff levels. Looking at a much better 2012 Q3 and Q4 recovery.
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will be $25 soon
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