ADVENTRX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AMEX:ANX)
A biopharmaceutical research and development company focused on commercializing proprietary product candidates for the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases.
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a bet that seeking alpha pumpers will make this one take off
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This stock is trading way below its Net Current Asset Value (liquidation value). Considering that the company has 3 products in its pipeline with huge potential, I think the risk/reward here is not taken into account. Even if I'm wrong and none of the company's drugs get approved the stock is still cheap enough that I should still make money. If even just one of the drugs gets approved the profits could be enormous. In other words, the margin of safety here is large enough that no matter what happens I will most likely make money. Now those are the kind of investments that I like best!
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There are currently 2000 ANX shares in my "fund" with break-even of around 1.08 USD.
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/fund-trades/678775.
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I caught Adventrx Pharmaceuticals, Inc plunging like a rock on November 11th and I stopped in to see if my favorite CAPS bio followers had rated it. ZZlangerhans had just given it one of his speculative upthumbs. Speculative meaning that it's long term potential was too far out and overall not generally bright, but in the current cycle of such a biopharm, there might be some room for a trade for a patient investor not interested in the final outcome of the drug portfolio. The basis was on the excellent cash position, the burn rate, and the timeframe given to Adventrx to interest speculative biopharm investors. Sure enough when you comment on a biopharms solid cash postition they decide to dilute anyway.
http://caps.fool.com/Pitch/ANX/6059878/cash-plays-are-favorites-of-mi.aspx?source=itxsittb0000001
We bantered this on ZZ's pitch. One can issue more shares at a 30% lower price because one wants to ensure an even safer cash margain to work with, or one can do it because management has poor expectations of end results and wants to collect a paycheck as long as possible. Adding the $15 Million to current cash and backing out the burn rate and we have a nice long runway for something to fizzle or pop. I'll take my caps play well below the offering price and well below ZZ's unfortunate entry and watch this one for awhile. Of the two drugs, ANX-188 for acute sickle cell may have some potential. ANX-514 appears to be a reformulation of an existing chemo drug. Long term potential is beyond my abilities at this point, I prefer to play this one as a swing trade on the drop below the dilution price and the large cash postion. This type of play requires monitoring and getting out before any Phase III data if the share price has not risen to provide some margin.
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Has $1.59 in cash per share, selling for less than half that.
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Cash plays are favorites of mine when I'm expecting a significant correction in an overbought market. If the market cap remains stable in a broad market decline I usually score well on the pick. If the market cap declines even further below cash then I've identified a strong potential GBMB purchase. Today I'll add Adventrx to Vanda, Targacept, and Insmed.
The market cap of 24M is backed by cash of 38M as of the recent earnings statement. Burn runs at 2-4M, so the company has several quarters to pull a rabbit out of their hat before cash runs down to the current cap. Exelbine seems cooked and ANX-514 has failed to inspire, so I suspect the rabbit will be cheaply acquired sickle cell drug poloxamer 188. I'm not ready to drop a buy on Adventrx yet, although the cash looks meaty. If indiscriminate broad market flight drops the share price below 0.8, I might be there to pick up the pieces.
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ANX 530 (Exelbine) will more than like be approved. Come 9/1/11-PDUFA Date, all ANX longs will know.
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Overvalued Biotech company coming to market with a drug that competes with another drug that is barely used. Fair Value might be $2. Anything over that is not worthwhile. All hype and speculation.
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Build-up and spike on FDA decision
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The stock will outperform the market because of the FDA approval date set for Sept 1st, people are going to be pumping it up throughout August.
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Seems cheap under $2. Approval soon?
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support from $2.08, it will go up.
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In recovery mode and just hit the $2 dollar mark! Buy buy buy
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they are approved and on the fast track
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In the usually speculative biotech sector ANX is actually employing a business model that seems more stable. Its lead drug CoFactor basically is designed to replace the existing drug with less adverse side effects. Also in the wake of recent reports of problems with several anemia drugs it is important to point out that Cofactor has significantly reduced anemic side effects in phase II trials. ANX also has Zanaflu,a new product for the common cold and influenza, which should make it to market by flu season. This stock should make it to $10 in the next 12-18 months.
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Once trial results are released in June this stock is going to go crazy. Thiovir, it's broad spectrum anti-viral, and CoFactor a colon cancer med are both deep in their trials. ANX bumped to over 5$ with positive news after Phase II trials of Cofactor last year. Imagine positive feedback for Phase III. I see ANX getting bids in 2 years with their pipeline.
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Phase IIb data will be released in June. Relatively unknown bio-tech. Icahn is the biggest shareholder.
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