Acme Packet, Inc. (APKT)

spec

If you loved it at $8, then $4.62 is a lot better.

FAIR

This company has good numbers - good growth in earnings and revenue. They have no debt and about 23% of their market cap is backed by cash. They are the market leader for Session Border Controllers, which provide security for inter-network communications via VoiP (or at least that's my understanding) - a popular and growing method for conferencing and telecommunications. They had a great quarteer, and they don't sell directly to consumers.

I always liked this company, too bad I didn't act on it sooner.

screened with these parameters...
The previous day's closing price must be less than $9.95 a share.
The previous day's close must be above $2, a floor that reduces risk.
The previous quarter's average daily trading volume must be at least 40,000 shares, to weed out dead or rarely traded stocks.
A return on invested capital of at least 10%, to isolate companies with profits sufficient to support growth or reward shareholders.
A price-to-sales ratio of 8 or less.
Year-on-year revenue growth of at least 12% over the past 12 months.
Revenue growth in the previous quarter must be at least 75% of the growth rate for the previous 12 months.
Forecast earnings-per-share growth over five years of at least 15%.
At least 30% of outstanding shares must be held by Institutional investors.
Mean recommendation by analysts of "hold," "buy" or "strong buy."
No company with a negative earnings surprise in its recent past.

With the current P/E of 24 this stock is probably valued fairly given the current market demand for VOIP equipment. GIven the current condition of the ecomoy and the market it is probably a little over valued. I could see this stocks P/E as low as 17 which would put it just over $5. However, I think I up side is a P/E of 40 which would put the stock at $12. This gives a great risk reward.

Once the sales stop from insiders at the end of April and we get some upside swing in the economy at the same time as well as some positive news from ACME I think the stock will start climbing fast

STRONG GROWTH POTENTIAL

small cap, secure networking technology company, worldwide market, favorable valuation for PEG, P/B,P/E...P/S is unfavorable now....rev growth is better than industry average...eps growth has been negative for mrq and ttm.....speculative technology investment now....

50% of agrowing buisness but will have to out run cisco and sonus have to keep r and d cooking

dominant position in the field with tons of intellectual property

Is at or near bottom now. Orly and his piglets opted out of the insider stock sales plan which raised investor hopes and attitude. It is making money--nothing exciting at present but is postioned well in a growing niche.It has a better chance of going from 13.00 to 18.oo this year than AAPL has making half that gain before years end.

Dominant VOIP market positions, huge patent portfolio, acclerated revenue growth, market growth over 25% annually....

SPECULATIVE-HAS RECENTLY BOTTOMED OUT. NEW TO STOCK MARKET AND DOWN FROM HIGHS POST ISSUE. SALES LUMPY--AT COMPANY EST 1ST QUTR--NOT ANALYSTS. IS PROFITABLE COMPANY, EXPERIENCED. HAS PROPRIETARY BOX-2 SUPPLIERS (I JUST ADDED TO ENSURE SOURCING) SOFTWARE HAS PATENTS, HEAVY ON RESEARCH/VERSATILITY, EX-USA MARKETPLACE TOO, NO APPARENT COMPETITORS WITH MOXY TO CATCH OR REPLACE THEM IN NEAR FUTURE, RAPPORT WITH CLIENTS. GOOD REPORTS FROM TECHNICIANS ON DEPLOYMENT IN A GROWING OPPORTUNITY MARKET NICHE.

Not easy to illustrate with a crayon, but the fundamentals are great.

Short positions are currently at over 2M on this stock. Lockout was up at beginning of April but blackout covers through 2nd week of May due to earnings call. Buyback time will come after blackout is up ~5/6 or 5/7...I expect price in Jan 08 to be at at least 19/share...from the current 13/share thats a 45% gain with long term cap gains tax just a couple months away if you can make it that long...not to shabby...this is a story on the shorts that I bet alot of people don't want to become known before the blackout period is over.

Remembers the Roadrunner? Seems every time he needed some dynamite to blow up Mr. Wile. E Coyote, he turned to the ACME company. Perhaps that's what Jim O. at Forbes was thinking when he called Acme Packets "explosive technology." OK maybe not. But I work in the VoIP industry and APKT's session border controller has left everyone else in the dust (including potential acquirers Juniper and Cisco). The future looks even better Acme as VoIP, cellular over IP, IP video et al. continue to place complex demands on the edge of the providers network. Current APKT share price drop is a huge buying opp created by the end of the insider lock-up period and irrational fall-out from the Vonage debacle. But at these prices, watch out. I am loading up. Beep! Beep!

Improving margins. A great potential customer base. With the dip in the price, this appears to be an opportunity to get in at the start of a company with a good future.