American Reprographics Company (NYSE:ARC)

This is a "go-to" shop for the construction industry as a whole and the construction industry is really moving right now (for better or worse, for richer or poorer, for longer or shorter; we will see) I think ARC has a good year ahead of them and they are really beaten down at the present.

Interesting pick demand will rise with construction

HG

This a value stock at these levels

I am taking a flyer with a very small position in an industry that interests me. That's really all there is to this pick. I work with construction documents myself in a construction and design field. So ARC is in a familiar industry and is an interesting modern company.

I think ARC's stock will outperform the market, but that's only because most people (I'm speaking about people who are not involved in the reprographics industry) have "no clue" as to the "biggest challenge" that "reprographers" are now experiencing, and will continue to experience as the future unfolds. People who don't know how the AEC reprographics industry works think that ARC's revenues will rebound in direct proportion to the rebound that the AEC industry will experience. That's always the way it was in the past, with every recession the AEC industry experienced, so, "why ain't that gonna be the same this time?" Well, there's a "digital" transition that's been going on for years, by now, and that transition has heightened during the recession. What I'm speaking about is the fact that AEC customers are not printing (per project) as much as they used to print (per project.) They (customers) are transmitting digital files to project participants. The use of electronic take-off software has already had a negative impact on the volume of printing. The growing use of "BIM" will further reduce the need to print. As to GC's, who have long been the major "print volume" customers of reprographers, they are sending out "CD's" with plans and specs (or are using FTP sites to share files with sub-contractors), rather than ordering sets of plans and specs for their subs. We used to routinely get orders for 40 or 50 sets of plans and specs for almost every project. Those types of orders are gone. Customers have found ways, and will continue to find ways, to print less. The use of tablet computers (and even the iPAD) will increase the "we don't need to print everything" mentality. But, in spite of all of this negative stuff that's going on (and which will continue to happen), ARC's stock price should perform will, but, as I said, that's simply because "most" people "think" that ARC's revenues and profits will rebound to what they once were. I don't see ARC's revenues or profits climbing back to where they used to be. Frankly, I'll be totally shocked if they do. I actually think that ARC's stock price will continue to rise and will do so until "financial investors" begin to realize that ARC's revenues and profits will not bounce back to what they used to be. But, they will not see this until the AEC industry rebounds and evidence (ARC's future financial reports) shows that ARC's revenues and profits did not rebound "proportionately." So, in conclusion, I give a thumbs up to ARC's stock price appreciation, at least for the next year. It will probably take 18-24 months before "investors" begin to see that ARC is not "bouncing back" even though the AEC industry bounced back.

The company has a growth model based on gobbling up other companies. 8x larger than next biggest rival in the industry. It's a bit of counter intuition but if ARC is buying other AEC document management companies it means that so many companies are selling out of the industry. I think this is because it is a declining industry. Also the industry is heavily driven by technological innovation.

hg

I don't believe the commercial real estate market is going to be in "armageddon mode" for several years to come, but that's how this stock is currently priced.

Turn around , find support on SMA 200

I bought this stock in my son's portfolio in March and it has doubled. I see some opportunity for the stock to continue to rise.

Goog growth and earnings.

Yikes - Lack of solid construction activity equals lack of real sales. Next..

Many people are hurting over this stock. But remember the basic principle of investor returns. Return for investors is not contingent on earnings but on how earnings compare to what investors are expecting. Betting against ARC is similar to betting against the aggregated Reprographics industry globally. However, if that industry survives which according to ARC management it will because they keep cannabalizing other companies, the ARC shareholders should do well in the long-run.

Stop the madness over this one already. I have never voiced my picks either for or against out loud before, but come on. We are in a new world with new rules.

ARC - Several companies pieced together under one umbrella with multiple middle management styles in play across the country. Add to that the fact that biz is bad, I mean really bad, and you expect a miracle to come out of this. Good luck. You're gonna need it along with cash that you want to just simply throw to the wind and hope for growth.

My grandfather once said that if you scatter your seeds you just get weeds and no one wants weeds.

ARP seems to be in solid financial condition, has strong cash flow, and a substantial ownership stake for management. It is also a leader in a fragmented industry and is making aquisitions. Acknowledging the uncertainty of EPS figures in the next year or so, I see a favorable risk/reward proposition here.

This stock has been beaten down tremendously. They are in for tough times but management seems to be right on the ball. They saw this coming and continue to generate excellent FCF. I doubt this stock wont be an easy double in 5 years...

In times like these, bigger is proving to be not better.

I made a mistake in prematurley purchasing late last year. I am selling because I would not buy at this price. Maybe in the $2.00 range. I see communities turning more to local options to help each other out. This is the reality of THIS recession like it or not.

This companies sales growth through accusition is not happening and their so called "added value" programs are now easily replaced with simpler applications and more user freindly options that I see popping up in the smaller competitors. Bad news for ARP.

I begin my quest to invest in those innovative companies of the future (not necceasarily in this field) and their suppliers, etc.

With a majority of thier divisions in California, and being too tied to the construction market, I see hard times for them over the next 2 years.
They grow through acquisition, but in today economic climate I see them holding back and consolidating many of thier divisions to be a strong position when things get better.