American Reprographics Company (ARP)

ARP had a relatively high Goodwill impairment charge in the 3rd quarter. In addition their revenue was down severely @ 44% from last year (noticeable especially for summer months) reflecting early 2003-2004 levels. Going into winter where revenue can be even tighter I doubt that this can continue to maintain even this price. Great company, when good times return, but uncertainty is likely to rear it's ugly head as their slugs of debt become closer to being due. This company has probems that similarily (and compoundingly for ARP's case) plaguing the housing industry. As long as commercial space stays widely avaliable, their business will dwindle until things pick up again. I love the CEO. He's doing the right thing by taking a pay cut, these problems are just beyond reach and budget control is the number one priority right now.

Turn around , find support on SMA 200

Mmm...reprographics...

I simply used the screener to find all of the 5 star stocks with the greatest 52-week losses. 5 stars should make them good picks and the high 52-week loss should make them cheap. We’ll see how it works!

I bought this stock in my son's portfolio in March and it has doubled. I see some opportunity for the stock to continue to rise.

Goog growth and earnings.

fair value~~$23.09

Yikes - Lack of solid construction activity equals lack of real sales. Next..

Many people are hurting over this stock. But remember the basic principle of investor returns. Return for investors is not contingent on earnings but on how earnings compare to what investors are expecting. Betting against ARC is similar to betting against the aggregated Reprographics industry globally. However, if that industry survives which according to ARC management it will because they keep cannabalizing other companies, the ARC shareholders should do well in the long-run.

Stop the madness over this one already. I have never voiced my picks either for or against out loud before, but come on. We are in a new world with new rules.

ARC - Several companies pieced together under one umbrella with multiple middle management styles in play across the country. Add to that the fact that biz is bad, I mean really bad, and you expect a miracle to come out of this. Good luck. You're gonna need it along with cash that you want to just simply throw to the wind and hope for growth.

My grandfather once said that if you scatter your seeds you just get weeds and no one wants weeds.

One of the bigger players in a small and shrinking market, so its down but crucially : not out. May take a while but if it survives there'll be even less competition. High risk pick.

ARP seems to be in solid financial condition, has strong cash flow, and a substantial ownership stake for management. It is also a leader in a fragmented industry and is making aquisitions. Acknowledging the uncertainty of EPS figures in the next year or so, I see a favorable risk/reward proposition here.

Looking at the 2008 10K, I think the $60M in FCF is easy to achieve in 2009, despite the awful environment - see TMFPlatoish comments. Based on that, the stock is worth more than $10. But what I like is the disciplined management and the upside potential when recovery comes, and/or stimulus $$ start flowing.

This stock has been beaten down tremendously. They are in for tough times but management seems to be right on the ball. They saw this coming and continue to generate excellent FCF. I doubt this stock wont be an easy double in 5 years...

In times like these, bigger is proving to be not better.

I made a mistake in prematurley purchasing late last year. I am selling because I would not buy at this price. Maybe in the $2.00 range. I see communities turning more to local options to help each other out. This is the reality of THIS recession like it or not.

This companies sales growth through accusition is not happening and their so called "added value" programs are now easily replaced with simpler applications and more user freindly options that I see popping up in the smaller competitors. Bad news for ARP.

I begin my quest to invest in those innovative companies of the future (not necceasarily in this field) and their suppliers, etc.

With a majority of thier divisions in California, and being too tied to the construction market, I see hard times for them over the next 2 years.
They grow through acquisition, but in today economic climate I see them holding back and consolidating many of thier divisions to be a strong position when things get better.

Even with a possible construction recoverery in 2009 due to a now very weak dollar, this company is no doubt burning through cash and dealing wih layoffs of key players at this point.

Look for 2009 first quarter blues and a long expensive road back to recovery and stability.

Watch Out! Inflation has hit this sector very hard no matter what anybody says. Wholesale paper prices have nearly doubled in the last 13 months. Worldwide demand is down, down, down for Reprographic sevices. This goes from retail print outlets to placing equipment inside Architectural, Construction and Engineering firms. Monies for Public projects is drying up. Commercial projects are either on hold or indefinetly shut down. With the entire world in or predicting a deep recession, it will take years to rebuild this industry.

Ridiculously cheap well-run co.