American Safety Insurance Holdings, Ltd. (ASI)

JerryDreamer (< 20) Submitted: 8/17/2009 1:43:54 AM : Start Price: $15.97 ASI Score: +23.71

When the overly optimistic FOMC says that household spending will be "constrained" by sluggish income growth, ongoing job losses, lower household wealth, and tight credit AND Shanghai stocks hit a seven-week low, then you know this bear market rally is finally over!

Paramnesia1930 (98.20) Submitted: 7/31/2009 7:15:04 PM : Start Price: $16.43 ASI Score: +25.02

The 1929-1930 equity rally (coming out of The Great Depression) lasted 147 days and the market was up 46%. It has been the same amount of time since the March, 2009 low and we are up about the same percentage. It’s déjà vu (paramnesia), so prepare for a drop of about the same percentage (85%).

ESCalanderAI (85.05) Submitted: 3/3/2008 7:38:25 AM : Start Price: $19.12 ASI Score: -12.54

EXP POS EARN

cdempsey1221 (98.94) Submitted: 11/28/2007 6:36:17 PM : Start Price: $19.44 ASI Score: +6.28

Highly competitive market, softening margins, weak ratios lead me to believe their in a "ride out the storm" pattern for their business. They are domiciled in Bermuda, and state in their 10-K they cannot pay a dividend to to solvency issues to their insured. Their expense ratio (~38%) is high, even for their market, and their combined ratio (95.3%) isn't much better.

Commercial insurance is an extremely price sensitive, and risky business. The major business segment was US construction, and they're taking a hard hit on earned premium; and will also have a hard time getting this business as profitable as it once was.

The main thing that worries me is their inability to give a divendend, and their main business segment losing ground, and the possibility of having to misprice their products to gain customers. A lapse in underwriting principle could be really be a problem for a small company like this, and it will be hard to maintain strict underwriting standards in this market.

albanyfx (25.68) Submitted: 10/29/2007 2:36:10 PM : Start Price: $20.47 ASI Score: -6.21

GReat company, Great P/E, so low! it cant be ignore by my personal port or Fool's port.

discinboy (41.50) Submitted: 9/19/2007 10:28:35 PM : Start Price: $19.80 ASI Score: -4.51

Will continue to produce solid gains, but is not one that will triple any time soon

KNsurfer (59.65) Submitted: 9/9/2007 8:36:45 AM : Start Price: $19.75 ASI Score: -7.83

:)

PeterLinch (< 20) Submitted: 6/29/2007 9:16:56 PM : Start Price: $23.78 ASI Score: -17.58

American Safety Ins. has all the makings of a 10 bagger over the next decade.

They have significant inside ownership, high marks on all profit indicators, very little debt, and a great management crew.

I see great potential with this investment. Based on my valuation work, my price target for these shares is $38-$39 at current levels.

MarkBDow (91.23) Submitted: 4/8/2007 9:30:59 AM : Start Price: $19.91 ASI Score: -9.77

Currently trading at less than 10% over its book value and in a niche market, this company should continue to perform very well for the next several years with a very limited downside.

GotBuffet (51.36) Submitted: 2/14/2007 1:55:40 AM : Start Price: $18.30 ASI Score: -3.81

Supervalue

CubsBearsBulls43 (98.66) Submitted: 2/13/2007 12:48:43 PM : Start Price: $18.45 ASI Score: -4.68

A good value play.

FeverPred (46.11) Submitted: 1/22/2007 6:24:15 AM : Start Price: $18.64 ASI Score: -6.18

For most Small Cap companies, good management = success. This company has some of the best and has nowhere to go but up.

Porquapa (46.55) Submitted: 12/16/2006 8:05:02 PM : Start Price: $18.35 ASI Score: -5.29

momentum, low PE, fundamentals

1Ganador (37.89) Submitted: 12/10/2006 2:48:33 PM : Start Price: $18.29 ASI Score: -5.69

It's such a great value that I don't need to check anything else. However, all the indications are reassuring:

1) High inside ownership
2) Great management
3) Expanding margins
4) Trading at book value