Atlas Energy, Inc. (ATLS)

Last time I wrote pitch for ATN in April 2009 which you can still find as ATN.DL at http://msncaps.fool.com/Ticker/ATN.DL.aspx. ATN ticker got renamed as ATLS after merger. I bought this stock for $13 around that time. Today its trading close to $26. My holding got doubled in just period of six months. At this point it make sense to close this position and book profit. Well, not at all from current valuation perspective it has still lot more room for growth. I wrote blog on my top natural gas picks titled Tomorrow's Exxon Mobils at http://msncaps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=189090&t=02007495882059315953 in May in 2009, people were mocking on that post....giving all reasons not to invest in ATLS (ATN) and ATPG. ATPG has almost quadrapuled in this time. I should say all those guys missed sweet rides. Recent market correction has brought opportunity to increase holdings in these stocks. Again my recommendation dont miss this chance.
Lastly, fool founder Rich Smith has given several valuation reasons to buy ATLS in his post Rocket stock or Dud at http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2009/09/08/rocket-stock-or-dud.aspx?source=isesitlnk0000001&mrr=0.50. His main arguments is companies current reserves value at 2.3 billion USD where as its market value is just short of 1 billion.
There are several other comments in this post where users saying Rich Smith still way short in his valuation. Basically he is considering current price of $2.25 per million BTUs whereas ATLS has already worked out hedges for future contracts at the price of $6 to $7 per million BTUs. Other factors like low cost of production and favourable local prices makes this company value atleast 3 billion dollar atleast even using most conservative estimates.
Buy, Buy and Buy....

I originally invested in ATN for the NatGas play & the dividends back on 1/08/09, since then I have been following them closely, actually I even got both the ATN & ATLS boards setup here on Motley Fool. It's been a fun and VERY profitable ride this year.

I am also a long term investor I personally do not like paying short term cap-gains tax rate. ATLS is my 2nd largest holding (ATPG is my #1, together they represent 65% soon to be 70%) and believe both of them can be held positively for at least 3 years. I am currently forecasting both to be over $40 YE-2010, $50 if ATLS can book 1/3 of their ~9.125TCF possible reserves by then, as that would give them ~4TCF proven & probable instead of just ~1TCF now.

Just the idea that ATN/ATLS had over 30 years production reserve and that they could possibly increase those reserves 10 fold, would mean MANY years of increasing production & reserves w/o acquiring any new leases = POTENTIAL, now please add all the legal disclaimers, lol.

Dividends not only have not been promised to resume, that the company has been forthright in stating that they wish to redirect ALL (including previous dividends) cash-flows to accelerate development of the Marcellus region.

As I also previously wrote RRC has been kicking ATN's butt in recent drilling. Now while ATN may still have the lead (slightly) in total # of producing wells, RRC has many more horizontal wells and about 3 or 4 times the # of recent permits on on file in Pennsylvania, not to mention higher total Marcellus production. (This is important as ATN used to market themselves as the top producer in the region) And in some cases properties overlap, it is in ATLS's best interest to delineate those nearby properties to keep RRC from sucking the gas right out from under them.

This will take a couple to a few quarters so I wouldn't expect ANY dividends until this has been addressed properly, most likely 1st new dividends a pittance in 2Q10 or 3Q10. We are no longer an income oriented stock we are now a GROWTH oriented stock > i.e. 100% increase in production from Marcellus = 50% increase in total production 2010. Personally with the focus on drilling horizontals for our own account I believe we can exceed those figures, assuming we can get similar results to RRC once we get a little practice under our belt.

MarketEdge 2nd Opinion Weekly 10/16/09 (From Scottrade)

Second Opinion® Weekly - ATLAS ENERGY (ATLS)
Exchange: NMS Close as of week ending 10/16/2009
Opinion
Opinion LONG Date Opinion Formed 4/13/2009 Price Opinion Formed 12.97
Score 0 C-Rate 0.0
Recommendation
Stock is a Buy.
Comment
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Strong Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
Look for Support at 28.48
Week's Activity (Close as of week ending 10/16/2009)
Week Close 29.55 Week Change 1.08
Week Open 28.47 Week High 29.61 Week Low 27.14
Price Analysis Volume Analysis
Yr. High 29.61 Ave Daily Volume(00) 8,075
Yr. Low 6.98 MO Chg.(%) 46.1
MO Chg.(%) 28.9
Resistance N/A Up/Down Volume(U/D)
Support 28.48 U/D Ratio 2.1
SELL STOP 20.8 U/D Direction UP
Volatility(%) 3.7
Position 99 On Balance Volume BL
ADXR 34 Positive OBV BL
Negative OBV BL
MA Price % Slope
10 Day 28.14 105 UP Money Flow(MF) 66
21 Day 26.38 112 UP MF Direction UP
50 Day 24.42 121 UP
200 Day 16.98 174 UP
Technical Analysis
Alpha 0.11 50-Day R.S. 1.31 OBOS 0
Beta 1.8 STO(Slow %K) 88 B.BANDS 30
MACD ST BL STO(Fast %K) 98 RSV 88
MACD LT BL Wilder's RSI 83 POWER RATING 86

Legend:

BL=Bullish
BR=Bearish

Long 0 Stock is a buy. Market risk is low.
Long -1 Stock is a buy with minor deterioration. Market risk is low.
Long -2 Stock now experiencing technical deterioration. Market risk is moderate but increasing.
Long/Neutral -3 Warning sign if you own the stock. Significant technical deterioration. A good point to begin evaluating your individual Buy-Hold-Sell strategies. Market risk is significantly increasing.
Long/Neutral -4 Warning sign if you own the stock. Extreme technical deterioration. Market risk is high.
Avoid 0 Stock is an Avoid. Market risk is high for buyers.
Avoid +1 Stock is an Avoid with minor improvement. Market risk is high for buyers.
Avoid +2 Stock now experiencing technical improvement. Market risk is moderate but decreasing for buyers.
Avoid/Neutral +3 Warning sign if you are short the stock. Significant technical improvement. A good point to begin evaluating your individual Buy-Hold-Sell strategies. Market risk is significantly decreasing for buyers.
Avoid/Neutral +4 Warning sign if you are short the stock. Extreme technical improvement. Market risk is low for buyers, but not as low as a Long with a score of 0.