Atlas Energy, Inc. (ATLS)

ValuePEG (97.47) Submitted: 10/20/2009 2:46:46 AM : Start Price: $28.45 ATLS Score: -12.80

I originally invested in ATN for the NatGas play & the dividends back on 1/08/09, since then I have been following them closely, actually I even got both the ATN & ATLS boards setup here on Motley Fool. It's been a fun and VERY profitable ride this year.

I am also a long term investor I personally do not like paying short term cap-gains tax rate. ATLS is my 2nd largest holding (ATPG is my #1, together they represent 65% soon to be 70%) and believe both of them can be held positively for at least 3 years. I am currently forecasting both to be over $40 YE-2010, $50 if ATLS can book 1/3 of their ~9.125TCF possible reserves by then, as that would give them ~4TCF proven & probable instead of just ~1TCF now.

Just the idea that ATN/ATLS had over 30 years production reserve and that they could possibly increase those reserves 10 fold, would mean MANY years of increasing production & reserves w/o acquiring any new leases = POTENTIAL, now please add all the legal disclaimers, lol.

Dividends not only have not been promised to resume, that the company has been forthright in stating that they wish to redirect ALL (including previous dividends) cash-flows to accelerate development of the Marcellus region.

As I also previously wrote RRC has been kicking ATN's butt in recent drilling. Now while ATN may still have the lead (slightly) in total # of producing wells, RRC has many more horizontal wells and about 3 or 4 times the # of recent permits on on file in Pennsylvania, not to mention higher total Marcellus production. (This is important as ATN used to market themselves as the top producer in the region) And in some cases properties overlap, it is in ATLS's best interest to delineate those nearby properties to keep RRC from sucking the gas right out from under them.

This will take a couple to a few quarters so I wouldn't expect ANY dividends until this has been addressed properly, most likely 1st new dividends a pittance in 2Q10 or 3Q10. We are no longer an income oriented stock we are now a GROWTH oriented stock > i.e. 100% increase in production from Marcellus = 50% increase in total production 2010. Personally with the focus on drilling horizontals for our own account I believe we can exceed those figures, assuming we can get similar results to RRC once we get a little practice under our belt.

MarketEdge 2nd Opinion Weekly 10/16/09 (From Scottrade)

Second Opinion® Weekly - ATLAS ENERGY (ATLS)
Exchange: NMS Close as of week ending 10/16/2009
Opinion
Opinion LONG Date Opinion Formed 4/13/2009 Price Opinion Formed 12.97
Score 0 C-Rate 0.0
Recommendation
Stock is a Buy.
Comment
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bullish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Strong Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
Look for Support at 28.48
Week's Activity (Close as of week ending 10/16/2009)
Week Close 29.55 Week Change 1.08
Week Open 28.47 Week High 29.61 Week Low 27.14
Price Analysis Volume Analysis
Yr. High 29.61 Ave Daily Volume(00) 8,075
Yr. Low 6.98 MO Chg.(%) 46.1
MO Chg.(%) 28.9
Resistance N/A Up/Down Volume(U/D)
Support 28.48 U/D Ratio 2.1
SELL STOP 20.8 U/D Direction UP
Volatility(%) 3.7
Position 99 On Balance Volume BL
ADXR 34 Positive OBV BL
Negative OBV BL
MA Price % Slope
10 Day 28.14 105 UP Money Flow(MF) 66
21 Day 26.38 112 UP MF Direction UP
50 Day 24.42 121 UP
200 Day 16.98 174 UP
Technical Analysis
Alpha 0.11 50-Day R.S. 1.31 OBOS 0
Beta 1.8 STO(Slow %K) 88 B.BANDS 30
MACD ST BL STO(Fast %K) 98 RSV 88
MACD LT BL Wilder's RSI 83 POWER RATING 86

Legend:

BL=Bullish
BR=Bearish

Long 0 Stock is a buy. Market risk is low.
Long -1 Stock is a buy with minor deterioration. Market risk is low.
Long -2 Stock now experiencing technical deterioration. Market risk is moderate but increasing.
Long/Neutral -3 Warning sign if you own the stock. Significant technical deterioration. A good point to begin evaluating your individual Buy-Hold-Sell strategies. Market risk is significantly increasing.
Long/Neutral -4 Warning sign if you own the stock. Extreme technical deterioration. Market risk is high.
Avoid 0 Stock is an Avoid. Market risk is high for buyers.
Avoid +1 Stock is an Avoid with minor improvement. Market risk is high for buyers.
Avoid +2 Stock now experiencing technical improvement. Market risk is moderate but decreasing for buyers.
Avoid/Neutral +3 Warning sign if you are short the stock. Significant technical improvement. A good point to begin evaluating your individual Buy-Hold-Sell strategies. Market risk is significantly decreasing for buyers.
Avoid/Neutral +4 Warning sign if you are short the stock. Extreme technical improvement. Market risk is low for buyers, but not as low as a Long with a score of 0.

EricHbs (97.76) Submitted: 10/7/2009 1:04:47 PM : Start Price: $27.59 ATLS Score: -11.24

Finally merged with ATN, LLC. I was bullish on ATN and I believe ATN will only make ATLS better. I am not, however, sold that the merger will make everything positive from this point forward. I am being optomistic.

SequoiaStocks (< 20) Submitted: 9/18/2009 9:50:41 AM : Start Price: $23.62 ATLS Score: +5.79

This account tracks the performance of the investment firm Ruane, Cunniff, and Goldfarb - the investment manager of Sequoia Fund.

kkconway (90.27) Submitted: 5/6/2009 9:55:30 AM : Start Price: $16.71 ATLS Score: +32.54

Insider buys. Marcellus Shale the next big thing: 100 year supply of nat gas unlocked with modern technology (horizontal drilling, fracturing and high water pressure extraction) Enough nat gas production to make good profits even at modest commodity prices.

harrytong (85.53) Submitted: 10/21/2008 2:43:29 AM : Start Price: $21.89 ATLS Score: -1.09

expensive.

dothedow (77.09) Submitted: 5/8/2008 4:02:25 AM : Start Price: $46.90 ATLS Score: +26.98

HighGain+ HighPE

EMG114 (24.64) Submitted: 4/22/2008 9:16:24 PM : Start Price: $42.33 ATLS Score: -22.21

The price of this stock reached a new 52-week high on an intraday basis. Good investment!

demonhawk (< 20) Submitted: 4/16/2008 5:08:53 PM : Start Price: $44.32 ATLS Score: -25.95

If one looks at their holding in ATN, AHD and APL the company trades a significant discount to its stock holdings. The lack of any debt will lead management to substantially increase the dividend and buy back stock in an effort to return money to shareholders. The fact that they have an asset management business on the side that invests solely in energy infrastructure rounds off the assets of this incredibly undervalued company.

lpatti11 (71.63) Submitted: 1/6/2008 7:56:39 PM : Start Price: $38.20 ATLS Score: -13.64

development, production and transportation of natural gas and, to a lesser extent, oil. $$$ for oil!

Vthug (< 20) Submitted: 11/4/2007 9:27:57 PM : Start Price: $36.69 ATLS Score: -6.99

they are a solid company, with a solid past background in pe #'s , etc..........