AVI BioPharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVII)

Profit is the impossible dream here

I dumped AVI close to the bottom in December for a loss, and didn't get a chance to pick it up again before the surprise biotech bull market (I wanted it at the 0.5 threshold). Now I find myself gingerly handing out red thumbs to the baby bios that all started running up in late December without catalysts, hoping I'm not pushing against the edge of some ridiculous new biotech bubble.

Over the last five years AVI has been a consistent underperformer, with slow progress and little clinical success from their antisense pipeline. The current projects in clinical development bear little resemblance to the coronary stent and hepatitis C-related compounds I remember from 2007. The enterprise value of the company seems largely dependent on the results of the phase IIb trial of eteplirsen in Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Given the shaky nature of the positive topline data from the phase I/II trial of eteplirsen, histologic evidence of dystrophin-positive muscle fibers, I believe there is low likelihood of seeing a clinical effect in the phase IIb trial. I don't see any clear pathway towards profitability in the foreseeable future through the antiviral compounds that remain in phase I.

Good reports, low valuation

It's very low right now, but AVII has a proven technology used by the Department of Defense to quickly manufacture vaccines in two weeks in case of a bio-threat.

This puppy just went on sale. Time to load up the truck.

90% increase in price from April lows to Sep 3 (52 week) closing high. Like all sub$5 biotech issues, this is a speculative stock, and I think it was no surprise to see it retrace in September while all the other big name NASDAQ workhorses offered great performance in lower risk companies. I think it will rise again the 45 cents it rertaced before Christmas (in other words, 25% in the next 90 days - - you can be sure that no index fund will do that in the remainder of this year!). And make big new highs in 2011.

Rex, a physician in the midwest.

29,25,0
61,70,96

Anti-sense holds potential to provide potent anti-viral agents. Data on clinical impact of morpholinos on DMD due before the end of the year. Large government contracts anticipated in the near future. Early studies show their flu drugs more potent then Tamiflu.

AVII has a great product pipe-line. This is a great longer-term play if you can buy on dips and can stomach some up and down until the company sees results. Might be some time before product is brought to market so patience is needed, but I am confident patient investors will reap rewards in 5 years time.

Jerry lewis-fighting MD-but, really it is. Things just are panning out.

I watched HGSI go in one year from 40 cents to $28.00 with approval of its Lupus drug. If AVII gets approval of its MD drug i believe it will soar.

This stock is still performing strong even after today's quarterly report which was worse than expected. If that doesn't hold this stock down than I can't see anything in the immediate future which would reverse it's direction.

Just read Barons issue of Oct.5, 2009

This is one good pharma stock that will outperform in a few months

This will take off by mid sept.

Great stock.

Good growthand earnings ahead.

CDSN

This company recently changed it's management team and has made progress in obtaining govt. work. As with many companies, growing the federal allotment of funds provides stability & cashflow to accelerate growth. Look for federal funds to increase as well as new ventures.