AVANIR Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AVNR)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

A pharmaceutical company focused on developing, acquiring and commercializing novel therapeutic products for the treatment of chronic diseases.

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 9/17/2014 9:16:00 AM : Underperform Start Price: $10.94 AVNR Score: -50.18

Avanir's share price doubled on Monday morning after the pre-market announcement of positive topline results from a placebo-controlled phase II trial of Nuedexta (AVP-923) for Alzheimer's agitation. I red thumbed it reflexively when the stock seemed to be topping, even though I hadn't had time to review the stock for seven months and wasn't aware of the impending catalyst. I've always been skeptical of Avanir and Nuedexta, as I am for every biopharma that discovers that old generic drugs have an amazing unrecognized ability to treat diseases that may not actually exist (restless legs syndrome, female sexual dyfunction, pseudobulbar affect). Nevertheless, Avanir has done unexpectedly well selling Nuedexta and lately I've left them alone to do their thing. On the other hand, the Alzheimer's agitation data was just a phase II trial, albeit placebo-controlled, and the claim is for a palliative rather than a disease-modifying effect. With the resultant two billion dollar valuation, the odds say that Avanir won't hold the highs.

Why haven't I shorted the stock? Because Acadia. I lost a good chunk of change betting against this stock in the teens for similar reasons. Since then just about everything has gone well for Acadia, with the FDA seemingly curled up and purring in the company's lap. The final straw was a mystifying Breakthrough Therapy Designation, for a drug that is essentially a sedative for agitated patients with Parkinson's dementia. What kind of designation does that leave for a new drug that actually slows the progression of Parkinson's or cures it?

Avanir and Acadia bulls endlessly play up the negatives of the vast array of generic sedatives and antipsychotics already used to serve the purpose that Nuedexta and Acadia's pimavanserin will eventually be marketed for. Sure, there are black box warnings (as for many drugs) and ominous published studies, but the generics are already in wide use and generally accepted. Will that change when new, expensive options are available? Possibly, but the impact is questionable.

Avanir still has several wild cards that haven't been dealt yet. A tiny phase II crossover trial of AVP-923 for Parkinson's dyskinesia is enrolling and could easily lead to a claim of positive topline data in the near term. A larger phase II trial of deuterium-modified dextromorphan AVP-786 for depression recently began enrollment. Nuedexta has been approved in Europe but the company has been quiet about their marketing plans. Finally, the company has a PDUFA for AVP-825 intranasal sumatriptan for migraine on November 26. I don't expect any commercial impact from this drug but an FDA approval is definitely a positive in the short term at least. So after a more in depth review, I'm still comfortable with the red thumb but don't see this as a safe short unless there's some additional irrational inflation in the stock.

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Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 9/16/2014 8:58:57 AM : Underperform Start Price: $11.12 AVNR Score: -47.66

89M shares trading after positive Phase II data shows the short covering this stock had garnered, but the reupping, daytraders and speculators adding in. Even without Adam's negative article referring to Neudexta as a cough syrup, this is bound to retrace as time wans.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12879164/1/avanirs-over-priced-cough-syrup-touted-for-role-in-alzheimers-agitation.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
Uncontrolled laughing/crying is not generating medical reimbursement. Agitated Alzheimer patients is not likely to either.

Revenue well below expenses. About a year left of funds unless revenue increases.

Playing a retrace. Not going to dive into the market side on a Phase II.

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Member Avatar a410traveler (50.87) Submitted: 8/10/2014 9:42:32 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.43 AVNR Score: +203.84

Neudextra will drive profits in 2015 and 2016.

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Member Avatar rogue66 (52.68) Submitted: 2/8/2014 12:44:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.58 AVNR Score: +355.73

just a guess

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Member Avatar fatmoneyrz (99.04) Submitted: 9/16/2013 10:01:29 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.38 AVNR Score: +263.66

$30 dollar price target by Piper Jaffray. Sell off overblown, some significant upside here after Delaware court ruling.

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Member Avatar jmontgomery86 (73.01) Submitted: 6/13/2013 8:49:04 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.45 AVNR Score: +252.75

$8 PT on Nuedexta growth and European acceptance.

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Member Avatar WakeUpInvestor (39.02) Submitted: 6/5/2013 5:19:03 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.85 AVNR Score: +309.55

Lead product will be marketed in Europe this year.

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Member Avatar headyinvestor (88.89) Submitted: 4/11/2012 8:43:27 AM : Underperform Start Price: $3.14 AVNR Score: -386.20

This company is trading at 50x revenue! Really!?

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Member Avatar 1stMartian (< 20) Submitted: 12/6/2011 1:25:08 PM : Underperform Start Price: $2.50 AVNR Score: -510.59

Declining sales, declining cash flow, horrible ROI.

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Member Avatar ramirogon (< 20) Submitted: 5/3/2011 7:23:43 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.18 AVNR Score: +250.89

avnr

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Member Avatar dgoldmeier (34.10) Submitted: 2/9/2011 5:23:42 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.02 AVNR Score: +262.22

If sales on Nuxedta go well this company can hit a homerun. Well worth the risk.

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Member Avatar bw64588 (< 20) Submitted: 2/8/2011 6:20:12 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.18 AVNR Score: +246.76

AVNR is going to surprise everyone. I look for it to start running in March when we hear the first reports of sales figures for Neudexta.

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Member Avatar peter1568 (< 20) Submitted: 11/25/2010 12:28:41 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.30 AVNR Score: +218.55

avnr is a takeover target for big business, has approved drug, little or no debt and enough money for its production and distribution, I believe that large company that already has spoken waiting for the Q4 11/30/2010 to offer for the shares, the next month I see some of these big companies could get started talking to avnr to buy next year

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Member Avatar upordownimup (< 20) Submitted: 11/16/2010 3:21:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.60 AVNR Score: +190.96

New drug approved in hostile climate for new drugs. I think Abreva works like magic. Love their discovery method.

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Member Avatar BadCopNoDonuts (< 20) Submitted: 11/1/2010 11:52:45 AM : Underperform Start Price: $5.10 AVNR Score: -156.80

I just bought March Puts for cheap. Kind of a no-brainer.

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Member Avatar BioInvestor217 (< 20) Submitted: 9/29/2010 12:08:15 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.32 AVNR Score: +326.97

Solid fundamentals and very good drug pipeline. See below for more info on their drug AVP-923 which is due for FDA review October 30th 2010. Expect to see major run-up and positive news. Conserative target before news: $4.25-$4.50. Clinical tests and trials look good, overall very good outlook.

"AVANIR is developing AVP-923 for use in PBA (also known as involuntary emotional expression disorder (IEED) and emotional lability) and diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain."

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Member Avatar ebitdat (23.36) Submitted: 9/16/2010 8:16:26 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.72 AVNR Score: +436.79

Expect a run-up to approval date

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Member Avatar venkybt (< 20) Submitted: 7/13/2010 2:24:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.51 AVNR Score: +291.66

As a new drug in the market with good safety profile always clicks,,,,,

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Member Avatar Cosmo21 (30.34) Submitted: 6/12/2010 7:03:08 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.75 AVNR Score: +425.87

Approval coming soon. Potential 9 $ stock.

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Member Avatar LonWa (< 20) Submitted: 5/29/2010 10:46:01 AM : Outperform Start Price: $2.38 AVNR Score: +517.38

Looks good but will hold off buying for now, think it will go down a little more before it starts to move up.

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