AVANIR Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AVNR)

the numbers do not work for me

As I expected, the last quarterly financial statement was pretty ugly with Nuedexta revenues of 3.7M, 17M in SGA expenses, and an 18M loss. Nuedexta has a long way to go before it can come close to making Avanir cash flow neutral, and the company only has enough cash reserves to sustain itself for another year of heavy losses. However, the share price has been on a paradoxical upswing for the last month that leads me to think that a dilutive financing may be imminent.

$300m market cap, Nuedexta is doing $25m/yr, even at $50m this company is overvalued... not to mention near-term dilution to generate cash

Technical bounce.

There are currently 2300 AVNR shares in my "fund" with break-even of around 2.30 USD.
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/fund-trades/678775.

recycle -30

Declining sales, declining cash flow, horrible ROI.

Insider 3.8% Buying shares.
Dropped after the drug was approved.

Only worry is large institutional holding. But the cap should be around 500 mil.

avnr

If sales on Nuxedta go well this company can hit a homerun. Well worth the risk.

AVNR is going to surprise everyone. I look for it to start running in March when we hear the first reports of sales figures for Neudexta.

I own it I hope it does well. I thiink they have a good product now it all depends on their marketing and sales.

Throwing darts at this point. Numbers look good, 100M OS, inside and institutional look great for a 4-dollar stock.

avnr is a takeover target for big business, has approved drug, little or no debt and enough money for its production and distribution, I believe that large company that already has spoken waiting for the Q4 11/30/2010 to offer for the shares, the next month I see some of these big companies could get started talking to avnr to buy next year

AVNR's drug Nuedexta will reap more revenue than the skeptical market thinks.

They just raised cash, so they are in a position to fund production and marketing as they reach profitability.

New drug approved in hostile climate for new drugs. I think Abreva works like magic. Love their discovery method.

I just bought March Puts for cheap. Kind of a no-brainer.

If approved there should be a nice run up. They have made the change the FDA has asked and the STAR trials indicate that approval looks possible.

Solid fundamentals and very good drug pipeline. See below for more info on their drug AVP-923 which is due for FDA review October 30th 2010. Expect to see major run-up and positive news. Conserative target before news: $4.25-$4.50. Clinical tests and trials look good, overall very good outlook.

"AVANIR is developing AVP-923 for use in PBA (also known as involuntary emotional expression disorder (IEED) and emotional lability) and diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain."