American Axle & Manufact. Holdings, Inc. (AXL)

I have seen this movies before.Stockholder are being diluted again.If the 500 milion isn't enough, there is always prepackaged bankrupty. Look at Lear. I find it amazing that management will get 10% of the new company and shareholder get the shaft.Shareholder own these company and must get better representation. Look at FR price when they did their secondary offering 7.00 and now 4.20 and they have a book value in the positive side I'm taking a walk on the short side ,

General Motors and their affiliated companies will continue to struggle until a real recovery associated with an improvement in the job market arrives. Until then these companies will likely burn through their cash reserves, hoping for that recovery to get here soon. Unfortunately, the government bail-outs that are helping to keep the GM companies alive are also delaying the real recovery.

This feels like betting against GM in the fall of 2008.
Nice run up in price today looks like a good entry point for a sell recommendation.

S13S50 BBB

Bad sector, Bad part of the sector, too much debt, no shareholder value. What's not to hate?

It is an automotive supplier. The automotive companies constanty and consistantly ask for price reductions from thier suppliers. Year after year this went on at the automotive supplier I was laid off from. The car companies asked for price reductions like a 15% decrease over the next 5 years. Then a 5% reduction the year after that. And on and on. Like-wise go the profits of automotive suppliers.

Though they were able to cut thier labor costs substantialy, raw materials go in the opposite direction.

They are comming off historic lows, yet I think they are already over priced at $7.00.

I looked at a Ford crossover the other day and said to myself I could buy that, I don't think I have thought that about 'standard' american cars in 10+ years, AXL has been to the bottom and from the steel lawsuit lost this year they have learned to stay lean when needed.

this is either going to bust within the next few months or its gunna skyrocket... its all up to GM if this company is going to go under or stay afloat...

See pitches by OldEnglish and TSIF.

3........2......1.........

crash.

"Dead company walking. Dead company walking. We got a dead company walking here." -From "The Green Mile".

Let me break this down so that even the publicly schooled can follow:
GM gave $100 million to AXL. True. AXL also agreed to take on UAW workers with liabilities in excess of $800 million and let GM out of a contract. A cheap price to pay.

This company has $48 dollars in liabilities and $1 in cash. It's losing more money per month than it has in cash. This company will probably try an offering to raise cash. An irrelevancy. It will still be out of money by next year even if it succeeds.

UAW workers and AXL shareholders should sue after this thing goes bankrupt. They have been completely duped.
Note: I was publicly schooled so don't give this post to much credit.

Recent run up has seriously inflated this

Still in big Debt , and the outbrke in the last few days was in response to the news not to the real weight of the company .

Will refinance on August 31, 2009

Credit Suisse upgraded American Axle to Outperform. Stock is still oversold...

AXL is not likely to make a profit for at least a few more quarters. GM gives 210 Million? That number is somewhat insignificant, given AXL's debt.

This should be the high-point for the spec bubble. Sell off will likely return the price to around $3-4.

I missed the wagon...WHAH!

I've been watching this company since May when it was trading in the low $3s. It's been a roller coaster ride since the spring. It was trading at $1.13 (this stock got as low as 29 cents in March!). Now it's well over $6. I've missed a huge gain by watching from the sidelines, but I still think that there's money to be made, if not in this stock, but the sector in general

A lot of good things have gone right for AXL in the last three months. They got a credit reprieve and GM is going to give them $210 million. Credit Suisse just upgraded them.

I know that auto manufacturing in this severely crippled, but it's not going to die.
DAN, ARM, and TEN also deserve a second look. Beware, these companies have huge losses, little cash flow, and balance sheets that are still evolving. Still, all these companies are trading at fraction of sales.

Profits will not determine the short-term viability of these companies. Profits are a distant dream for these firms. Only one thing will move these stocks: restructuring. Positive news of covenants and credit facility extensions will lead to analyst upgrades and an uptick in investor sentiment. Monitor the price of credit default swaps.

This is a test with a huge curve; a 60% will get you a B+.

Up over 100% in one day... Gambling that people will take a profit or two...