American Express Company (AXP)

Cramer says so

Watch this fridays job report as I think that report will set the tone for the market, and my guess is it will be worse than expected...there are still companies laying people off work, they saying now that unemployment won't peak till the end of 2010....with the job market a lot worse than it was back in the march lows. How is wall street forcasting growth to continue this rally when people still losing jobs? makes no logical sense at all...if people are spending then it wouldn't take a rocket scientist to know they're spending money they don't have on credit cards that they likely won't be able to pay back...and on top of that banks are trying to raise interest rates...unbelievable!

Increasing relative price strength

I am going to do a Cross Sectional Analysis on five of the largest credit card companies, analyze the risk involved with the industry and determine on a relative basis which stock is undervalued. The companies I am evaluating are Discover Financial, American Express, Visa, Capital One and MasterCard…

Read the report at
http://stocklook.blogspot.com/

Or after Wednesday, October 28
http://stocklook.blogspot.com/2009/10/credit-card-stocks-dfs-axp-v-cof-and-ma.html

This company has had a nice rise in price over the last three months, although its price has been somewhat flat recently. Even though it built its business on the high net worth/high income credit card holder, it has diversified its business to a broader market. This diversification many have been ill timed as higher unemployment, higher taxes and depressed wage growth will likely increase the late payments and credit card defaults. The only thing that will save them is their new status as a bank, which gives them access to government assistance. Unfortunately, government assistance for losses doesn't mean that profits will grow. There fall will likely be gradual over the next few years.

Excellent, wide moat company

Strong CC brand with loyal cardholders. AMEX card logo still holds value. Unlike Visa and Mastercard more selective in lending credit.

For those unfamiliar with Walstreetpro, he's a hillbilly that smashes things in his garage while berating the state of the economy. It's highly cathartic to watch. He's unemployed and recently charged up his credit cards. He has since stopped paying.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2fVqDzjVis&feature=channel_page

Watch at least until he starts smashing foreign made products in his garage. Walstreetpro is the quintessential working class American.

This account tracks the performance of the investment firm Ruane, Cunniff, and Goldfarb - the investment manager of Sequoia Fund.

I don't think that the recession has ended in spite of what Bernanke or anyone else says. With that in mind I think that AXP still has more challenging times ahead. Once the market does begin a correction, I think that AXP will decline more than the market does.

AXP cannot thrive in the coming credit environment; they'll be lucky to survive.

AX just can't establish its competitiveness against Visa, Mastercards and Discover...

Is what it is.

American Express just saw a decline in its credit card defaults. They are well diversified to weather the storm and should outperform its peers

fool

Businesses wont use it to allow purchases as they try to cut costs. They have lost users by cutting credit limits for no reason other than reducing risk. And other credit card companies are now offering the same level of service. The financial advisory side is full of weak advisors that recommend products clients don't need, just to turn a profit. Greed has blinded and reduced the value of American Express.

#36 Best Corporate Citizen
http://www.business-ethics.com/node/75

As unemployment rises, credit card companies such as American Express are going to experience greater losses than formerly anticipated. I don't expect them to meet earnings expectations.

I developed a tool called "liquidation ratio" (LR) for financial institutions. It is a quick and dirty method but captures a lot of data. LR = Cash + Account Receivables-Accurred Intereset / Long-Term Debt. Mr. Market seems to be punishing AXP because it has lower Net Earnings than expected as well as a large long-term debt obligation. Digging through their finanicial statements over the past 10 years showed me that it could consistently retire its' short- and long-term debt in a year or two using only Cash and AR-AI. This currently holds true. Also its' payouts of the debt are relatively small each year with the best interest rates available. Additionally, it currently has a decent amount of Retained Earnings. AXP has a much lower reserve of Treasury Stock than it has had in the past but on the other hand it doesn't have ongoing operating expenses that can make a good company a poor investment--R&D, Patents, Depreciation, etc. Two other positive indicators are steady Price Per Share Earnings and a consistent amount of outstanding stocks in the past 10 years. And of course, people who use a good portion of their services whether for credit, travel, or advice/planning have better than average earning powerr. It doesn't hurt to have a "billion dollar" brand name either. So as the economy picks up so will this stock. Its' underlying business economics have proven the test of time and their stocks are ripe for the picking at $23 a share.