+ Watch AZO
on My Watchlist
The Company is a specialty retailer of automotive parts and accessories.
AZO has an A for financial health and a PEG less than 1 on Morningstar, so it's one of my long picks.
rebuying. mkt being held up by QE. nothing can bring it down. party (ha! ha! ho! here we go!) and that's when mkt goes down. we don't care.
AutoZone outperform 12-18 month target 568-623 bucks (AZO) perhaps even higher
AZO's party, financed with debt, will come to an end when interest rates rise and investors realize this company has $1.7 billion less assets than liabilities.
Cash flow powerhouse!
The book value for Autozone is unsettling and some other ratios are not doing too good. The stock might be overpriced.
I grew up changing my own oil, doing my own repairs, but I think those days are long gone. Cars aren't the erector sets they once were. For obvious reasons, this is bad for AutoZone.
I added AZO to Caps at 362.96. The PE ratio then was 16.36. I like this company because it has had a long history of success. Earnings continue to grow at an amazing rate. Earnings grew 24% for the latest quarter. Autozone tends to better in recessions when people do more of their own repairs. So in a way its a defensive play. A recession would drop the price. During the Great Recession, the price fell to $84.66 and a PE of 8.43. But then the earnings were only $10.04. A similar PE today would bring the price down to $186.98. I just want to keep that price in mind. TTM cash flow for the second quarter was $24 a share. That would be a cash flow yield of 6.6%. That wasn't too far off its Great Recession cash flow yield low of 7.7%.September 20, 2011 4Q:2010 earnings’ highlights:** Revenues were $2.642 billion up from $2.445 billion** Fiscal 2010 revenues were $8.073 billion up from $7.362 billion** TTM Revenues were $8.073 or $192.29 per share** 4Q earnings were $7.18 up from $5.66 per share** Fiscal 2010 earnings were $19.47 up from $14.97 per share** Diluted share count 41.984 million** Cash flow for the year was $970 million or $23.10 per share** Cash $97.606 million: debt $3.35 billion** Trading range between September 20, 2011 and December 6, 2011 was $307.16 to $343.90. PE ratio range was 15.78 to 17.66: PS ratio range was 1.59 to 1.79: Cash flow yield range was 6.7% to 7.5%December 6, 2011 1Q:2011 earnings’ highlights: Before the opening bell** Revenues were $1.924 billion up from $1.792 billion** TTM revenues were $8.205 billion or $200.79 per share** Earnings were $4.68 up from $3.77** TTM earnings were $20.38** Stores 4,551 up from 4,404: Same store sales were up 4.6%** Diluted share count 40.864 million** Cash flow for the quarter was $280 million down from $311.5 million** Capital expenditures were $61.924 million up from $45.811 million** TTM cash flow was $938.5 million or $22.97 per share** Trading range between December 6, 2011 and February 28, 2012 was $313.11 to $367.59: PE Ratio range was 15.36 to 18.04: PS ratio range was 1.56 to 1.83: Cash flow yield range was 6.3% to 7.3%February 28, 2012 2Q:2011 earnings’ highlights:** Revenues were $1.804 billion up from $1.661 billion** TTM revenues were $8.348 billion or $207.47 per share** Earnings per share were $4.15 up from $3.34** TTM earnings were $21.19 per share** Diluted share count 40.237 million** Stores 4,867 (including 4,580 domestic stores) domestic same stores sales were up 5.9%** Cash flow for the six months was $328.8 million down from $332.8 million** TTM cash flow was $966 million or $24 per share** Trading range between February 28, 2012 and May 22, 2012 was $362.66 to $399.10: PE ratio range was 17.11 to 18.83: PS ratio range was 1.75 to 1.92: Cash flow yield range was 6% to 6.6%May 22, 2012 3Q:2012 earnings’ highlights:** Revenues were $2.112 billion up from $1.978 billion** TTM revenues were $8.48 billion or $214.25** Earnings were $6.28 up from $5.29** TTM Earnings were $22.18 per share** Diluted share count 39.59 million** Stores 4,910 (domestic stores 4,613)** Cash flow for nine months was ** Trading range between May 22, 2012 and the present was No cash flow for the third quarter yettom e
AZO's management has identified two factors as having statistically significant correlation with their sales growth: (1) miles driven and (2) # of of vehicles 7 years or older on the road. Regarding point 1: the average price of gasoline is a significant factor in determining the number of miles driven for average people. While prices have declined since the end of their last fiscal quarter, it has been increasing recently and likely only going to continue to grow. Therefore, while I believe this quarter's earnings may be robust, future guidance could be less than optimistic.Regarding point 2: as fuel costs take a greater chunk out of consumers’ wallet, they have less money to potentially put towards a new vehicle. Therefore, the number of 7 yr + vehicles on the road may continue to trend in AZO's favor. These 2 points sort of cancel each other out in the short term, but I think that in the long term AZO's prospects are dimming. Increasing fuel costs are almost a certainty, and should the economy continue to see signs of improvement, people may begin to ditch their old clunkers and embrace new automobiles.
Only bad thing about this company is its level of debt, which is increasing. They get a hold of this, and the stock is still a value.
issuing debt to buy back stock at all time highs. they are targeting a leverage ratio that i learned how to do in mba school. i asked the teacher why it would ever make sense to do this and that's when i effectively mentally dropped out of mba school because i couldn't get a legitimate response. This is a suicide mission.
the trend of Fix It Yourself vrs Paying Someone Else will continue for some time
I'm still holding on to my Auto-Zone. While they do have a lot of debt outstanding, and the payments on it could be a problem if they stumble, so far they've done well in a mediocre economy, and don't seem likely to plummet if it improves.
This company has excellent management with a fantastic long term track record. Who would ever want to bet against them?
Been going up since adding to watchlist63 59 5072 83 89
Great company. The numbers don't lie, though. This company will do well in the future, but it's likely (in my opinon) that it will either match or underperform vs. the S&P going forward. It's just too expensive at these prices.
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