BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:BCRX)

no no no

BioCryst stock has roared northward from the December low of 2.29 along with many other dubious biotechs in the counterintuitive rising tide of 2012. In some cases it was a recovery long overdue. In the case of BioCryst, not so much. The activating catalyst seems to be gout drug BCX4208, whose phase IIb data was released to a loud collective yawn last October. The lack of awesomeness of the data is well-summarized here http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11269023/1/biocrysts-gout-drug-fails-to-impress.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA . Does BCX4208 look like it's worth a 130M enterprise value?

Fodosine hasn't been mentioned since weak phase II data in 2010. That leaves peramivir, a troubled infuenza drug that the company has been struggling to advance for more than ten years. In fairness, the intravenous form of peramivir is now in a phase III trial with results expected in mid-2012, but given prior failures I have low expectations. BioCryst may be rising on broad market strength and biotech acquisition froth but I think they're going to be one of the first stocks thrown under the bus when the worm turns.

I am breaking my CAPS rule here, picking what I think is a dog stock to outperform the market. However, the flu hype drives this stock, and with the latest outbreak in Asia, I am going with history on this pick.

The next flu scare will send this stock flying as did before

Will rise during next pandemic flu. When will that happen? I have no idea, but at this cheap price, it's not that hard to wait.

swine flu trade

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/swine-flu-surge-leaves-15-dead-and-100-in-intensive-care-2161629.html

Struggled the past year. Will correct.

a product that's been proven 90% successful in worst case flu situations, EUA with full approval within 12 months maybe sooner, stockpiling orders lined up, 3 years of cash on books, strong potential gout drug in pipline...what's not to like...

following tmf on this one

The "Emergency Use Authorization" Bcrx is pushing the stock in the short term. Production of their life saving IV drug "Peramivir" is currently limited. The final authorization to use the anti viral drug will coincide with the ramping up of production capacity, all to give this stock a steady upwards rise for many quarters.

If flue turns really bad, these guys have an IV solution. Working hard for international sales.

From the president's council recs “HHS is moving forward with the purchase of intravenous antivirals for use under EUA for individuals who may require them.” $2.7B has been identified for anti-virals and vaccines; peramivir will be stockpiled, and an EUA will be coming shortly. If this doesn't happen, the stock will tank and many more people will die from H1N1 than should have.

N1H1 Viris Drug

Expect FDA approval of its anti-viral and substantial orders thereafter.

Going up if emergency flu use granted and then again if approval of Premavir. Good chance of one or both happening,

Speculative play based on bullish sentiment from Michael Murphy; big potential if Emergency Use Authorization is granted in the next few weeks.

Swine Flu vaccine, need I say more...

Swine flu? Are you kidding me? This will blow over and these companies will have produced enough product for billions of people who are all perfectly healthy. Thanks, 24-hour news cycle, for making a mountain out of a molehill...

Biocryst still has some time before it will be able to get peramavir approved. Although peramavir is a slam dunk, Biocryst will still lose plenty before it makes gains. I'd wait until peramavir (intermascular and I.V.) gets pushed into phase three in the US.