$49.32 -1.91 (-3.73%)
11/27/2009 10:52 AM

Direxion Shares ETF Trust Large Cap Bull 3x (BGU)

CAPS Rating: 1 out of 5

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Member Avatar fooletfs (60.45) Submitted: 11/8/2009 8:48:44 PM : Underperform Start Price: $46.99 BGU Score: -2.67

testing what's been said here on CAPs.
Do shorting all 3x ETFs mean easy net returns?
YES, IF, you rebalance once ratio goes 1.7 (or 1/1.7)

In a sideways or down market this would also translate into net points on CAPs
But your accuracy will be hurting, you'll mostly be 50% accuracy at best on this strat.
Current batch I am redthumbing here on CAPs today (at these levels):
BGU/BGZ
MWJ/MWN
TNA/TZA
FAS/FAZ

Further on my personal thoughts on this strat:
using hypothetical scenarios, actual 3x #s from '09, and 2x funds from differing periods:

Worst case scenario, this strategy loses in a year: (5%)

Best case scenarios in a year: 10%+

Should expect most returns in a year: 3-7%

In implementing this strat, pray for two things: 1) Hope your short shares don't get called back by broker & 2) if in rebalancing you wish to increase position, hope you can short more.

This strategy may be a good play to allocate comparable to the fixed income/bond allocation of portfolio or completely replace that bond allocation with this.

I would say maximum amount you sell each position is 23% of face value of account. IE a $10,000 acct, short sell a maximum $2,300 worth of each ETF.

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Member Avatar satansfolly (< 20) Submitted: 11/6/2009 10:54:48 AM : Underperform Start Price: $45.32 BGU Score: -5.42

the run is over for now

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Member Avatar ShortUltras (94.28) Submitted: 10/26/2009 6:31:27 PM : Underperform Start Price: $46.29 BGU Score: -3.38

Ultra-shorts and Ultra-pros are all bad investments due to daily rebalancing

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Member Avatar spundun (86.57) Submitted: 9/9/2009 10:34:05 PM : Underperform Start Price: $42.11 BGU Score: -10.18

Going down 3x the market

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Member Avatar edwjm (99.31) Submitted: 8/19/2009 10:23:43 AM : Underperform Start Price: $36.52 BGU Score: -22.71

See pitch by goldminingXpert.

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Member Avatar JerryDreamer (< 20) Submitted: 8/17/2009 1:17:18 AM : Underperform Start Price: $36.41 BGU Score: -23.05

When the overly optimistic FOMC says that household spending will be "constrained" by sluggish income growth, ongoing job losses, lower household wealth, and tight credit AND Shanghai stocks hit a seven-week low, then you know this bear market rally is finally over!

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Member Avatar Paramnesia1930 (97.64) Submitted: 8/12/2009 11:27:43 PM : Underperform Start Price: $39.43 BGU Score: -15.39

QUICK! Pick a reason to exit a market that has risen too fast and gotten too expensive. Here are three to choose from: buying power is getting exhausted according to DeMark indicators; daily sentiment indicators are 88% bullish; RSI’s and oscillators are over extended.

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Member Avatar UltraLong (100.00) Submitted: 8/4/2009 2:09:19 AM : Underperform Start Price: $37.93 BGU Score: -18.92

I know Disneyland has an area designated as "Fantasyland" but I just don't remember BGU being a part of it...guess I missed it.

UltraLong

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Member Avatar SteroidBear (< 20) Submitted: 7/23/2009 12:38:44 PM : Underperform Start Price: $35.72 BGU Score: -24.62

Volatility kills leverage.

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Member Avatar mikemasland (97.59) Submitted: 7/16/2009 12:30:55 AM : Underperform Start Price: $30.49 BGU Score: -42.16

broken

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Member Avatar SteriodBear (87.97) Submitted: 6/27/2009 12:12:57 AM : Underperform Start Price: $30.00 BGU Score: -43.66

Half-life period of leveraged ETF is inversely proportional to its volatility.

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Member Avatar addedupon (96.94) Submitted: 6/23/2009 4:54:37 PM : Underperform Start Price: $27.99 BGU Score: -52.73

ultras go down

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Member Avatar timetodrive (< 20) Submitted: 6/17/2009 3:45:22 PM : Underperform Start Price: $29.17 BGU Score: -46.95

Based on my call that the rally is going to see a pull-back over the next few weeks I am giving all Bear ETFs a thumbs up and all Bull ETFs a thumbs down in the short run. I am only invested in a small sampling of these bear ETFs but in order to raise my CAPS score I entered several here.

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Member Avatar nino347 (< 20) Submitted: 6/5/2009 11:07:23 PM : Outperform Start Price: $31.42 BGU Score: +37.76

I am a long term bull. This will prove me right-3x faster.

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Member Avatar JustAsWell (99.54) Submitted: 5/29/2009 2:59:49 PM : Underperform Start Price: $28.76 BGU Score: -48.68

trying to boost my accuracy

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Member Avatar Sovestor (96.81) Submitted: 5/28/2009 1:38:28 PM : Outperform Start Price: $28.58 BGU Score: +49.37

Many high quality large cap companies with leading market shares are selling at very reasonable valuation.

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Member Avatar gmXmkttiming (26.26) Submitted: 5/7/2009 12:52:19 PM : Underperform Start Price: $29.78 BGU Score: -43.47

Fading every pick made by Ultralong

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Member Avatar slackerwealth (82.71) Submitted: 5/5/2009 12:15:17 AM : Underperform Start Price: $28.88 BGU Score: -47.18

Market neutral arbitrage strategy. Has yielded around 200 points since mid March. The accuracy, as expected, is 50%. See blog.

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Member Avatar Option1307 (30.60) Submitted: 5/4/2009 12:23:51 AM : Underperform Start Price: $27.10 BGU Score: -55.53

Market is going down...

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Member Avatar goldminingXpert (99.98) Submitted: 4/21/2009 1:18:41 PM : Underperform Start Price: $23.33 BGU Score: -78.43

This market is about to head south. Like geese migrating away from the lovely Canadian north to the less desirable American lakes, the S&P will migrate from its vacation cottage in the 800s and return to its habitat in the 600s.

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