Direxion Shares ETF Trust Large Cap Bull 3x (BGU)
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testing what's been said here on CAPs.
Do shorting all 3x ETFs mean easy net returns?
YES, IF, you rebalance once ratio goes 1.7 (or 1/1.7)
In a sideways or down market this would also translate into net points on CAPs
But your accuracy will be hurting, you'll mostly be 50% accuracy at best on this strat.
Current batch I am redthumbing here on CAPs today (at these levels):
BGU/BGZ
MWJ/MWN
TNA/TZA
FAS/FAZ
Further on my personal thoughts on this strat:
using hypothetical scenarios, actual 3x #s from '09, and 2x funds from differing periods:
Worst case scenario, this strategy loses in a year: (5%)
Best case scenarios in a year: 10%+
Should expect most returns in a year: 3-7%
In implementing this strat, pray for two things: 1) Hope your short shares don't get called back by broker & 2) if in rebalancing you wish to increase position, hope you can short more.
This strategy may be a good play to allocate comparable to the fixed income/bond allocation of portfolio or completely replace that bond allocation with this.
I would say maximum amount you sell each position is 23% of face value of account. IE a $10,000 acct, short sell a maximum $2,300 worth of each ETF.
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the run is over for now
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Ultra-shorts and Ultra-pros are all bad investments due to daily rebalancing
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Going down 3x the market
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See pitch by goldminingXpert.
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When the overly optimistic FOMC says that household spending will be "constrained" by sluggish income growth, ongoing job losses, lower household wealth, and tight credit AND Shanghai stocks hit a seven-week low, then you know this bear market rally is finally over!
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QUICK! Pick a reason to exit a market that has risen too fast and gotten too expensive. Here are three to choose from: buying power is getting exhausted according to DeMark indicators; daily sentiment indicators are 88% bullish; RSI’s and oscillators are over extended.
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I know Disneyland has an area designated as "Fantasyland" but I just don't remember BGU being a part of it...guess I missed it.
UltraLong
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Volatility kills leverage.
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Half-life period of leveraged ETF is inversely proportional to its volatility.
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ultras go down
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Based on my call that the rally is going to see a pull-back over the next few weeks I am giving all Bear ETFs a thumbs up and all Bull ETFs a thumbs down in the short run. I am only invested in a small sampling of these bear ETFs but in order to raise my CAPS score I entered several here.
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I am a long term bull. This will prove me right-3x faster.
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trying to boost my accuracy
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Many high quality large cap companies with leading market shares are selling at very reasonable valuation.
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Fading every pick made by Ultralong
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Market neutral arbitrage strategy. Has yielded around 200 points since mid March. The accuracy, as expected, is 50%. See blog.
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Market is going down...
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This market is about to head south. Like geese migrating away from the lovely Canadian north to the less desirable American lakes, the S&P will migrate from its vacation cottage in the 800s and return to its habitat in the 600s.

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