Brookfield Homes Corp (BHS)

3 words- real estate market

fransgeraedts

Stagflation will kill home builders, unless they are marketing the homes to foreign nationals looking for a vacation home.

Cash/debt > 1000x

Only 1.7c cash per share.

Unsold inventory (land and real estate) means property tax liabilities.

Luxury and move-up home market hit hard.

Primarily operates in California (basket case of debt and taxes, unemployment and overregulation)

Housing is falling to free. If you do not have a job, you cannot pay mortgage, if you cannot pay a mortgage, you cannot buy a Brookfield home. With out the ability to bundle and package mortgages (aka AAA rated garbage) and sell them to inept, naive, corrupt moronic pension fund and Fannie and Freddie.

Banks will revert back to real banking which means: "Loaning money to people, who can prove they don't need a loan"

How many fools, who can afford to buy a home, did not buy one in the boom?
I did not see any hands go up.

How many FOOLS, are going to stop paying their mortgage if they loose their job?
I see some hands, there.

21 year land supply. Do I need to say more? Also, look at their write offs as a percent of equity the last 2 years. It trails the other builders significantly. Thus, they are hiding problems on their balance sheet instead of writing them down over the last 2 years. This will be a significant drag on earnings going forward

oil turnaround

Oversold (but then again, what isn't?!)

Maybe luxury homebuyers can do something, but you need to wit for the economy in order to invest in this one. So maybe long-term...

Brookfield builds a lot of homes in California. The data shows that California is one of the states that has been hit hard by foreclosures. BHS had a narrow profit margin at last report and will report quarterly earnings May 1, 2008. It is unlikely the company has been able to expand sales and improve income in the California market. This company is an underperform until the housing market turns around in California, which doesn't seem to be anytime soon. Hopefully, with their weak liquidity, they will survive this downturn.

housing sector has to work its way out before things get good....massive foreclosures coming...bottom has not been reached and may be retested before we see a true bottom.

Purely a long-term pick ... Insider buying as recent as Feb 2008 & good mix of building projects; from jumbo homes to retirement condos ...

homebuilders make comeback!!

Housing stocks are on the rise and this one will be on top once again.

Very strong company. Despite its recent increase in stock price, the company is still undervalued. As day traders slowly sell off, the real value of the company will come through at around $20.

Housing

Homebuilder. This market is still collapsing...

Market still crumbling, but execs are snatching shares up as prices continue to drop. I'll go along for the ride, at least in the CAPS system.

mortgage