Sotheby's (BID)

Telechart Pick

There is less momentum, less volume, and less buying going on. We are in the last part of this rally.

The 1929-1930 equity rally (coming out of The Great Depression) lasted 147 days and the market was up 46%. It has been the same amount of time since the March, 2009 low and we are up about the same percentage. It’s déjà vu (paramnesia), so prepare for a drop of about the same percentage (85%).

bought 'a lot' at average of 9.
But on fwd PE of 33 in a bad year I figure 10 -12 is a bargain. Paying 14 will show a return in two years.
brigid

Will survive recession

Think about how the comming inflation will affect the BID.

should see better days, rich people will go back to conspicuous consumption. Arguably a cyclical so the time to buy is when the PE appears to be high

Big Dividend, Bigger Moat

This is the rich man's pawn shop. It should do well in a recession. The stock has been hammered by short selling and is yielding 6.8% with plenty of coverage. It is an $8.80 stock with $5.58 per share of cash.

Deeply depressed recovery play - now with $250m credit line drawn to cash - and great brand for the future. In "normal" times this will trade in the twenties.

The wealthy will begin throwing money around again eventually. BID will suffer greatly throughout the recession - it's not a stock I'm buying that will be strong while times are bad. But I'm banking on the inevitable eventual rebound. $10 will be a steal in 3+ years.

Sotheby's at $12 = ridiculous.
Little hedge fund bears running it down day after day (20%+ short at the end of trading today). I don't think they can bring this company down, like they tried with few financials. Besides, this looks so outlandishly ridiculous that sooner rather than later will pave a way to a bullish stampede. In a very short term the small squeeze should be coming. This is downright insane to be short on this stock at these levels, yet it is going on.

Company has tons of cash, virtually no debt to speak of, auctions rake in more than ever (recession = more Cezannes bought and sold).

It's too good to be true ...
Own it for long-term, short-term, doesn't matter, great upside. No downside whatsoever.

Openned new offices in April. Only big name in-person auctioneer. There will always be rich people jetting off to bid on items too good for the rest of us. Their paying Sotheby's is one way they "prove" that they are better than us.

The market sucks, the economy is getting worse and it's affecting rich people way more than poor people. What happens when sugar muffin needs a new bentley? They have to sell some weird looking art to other weird people. Who does this better than Southeby's? No one.

Sotheby's auctions doing well, lot's of rich people around to buy pickled animals in boxes for millions (I don't get modern art!). P/e very low should provide downside protection.

I bought this today at $26.85 (price after commission).

Hidden Gem

The ultra rich are different from you and me. They are getting wealthier faster than any other group; wealth is concentrating in their hands; and they prop the value of this stock up.

Got 600 at $24.10, watch it run up to $30