Baidu.com, Inc. (ADR) (BIDU)
A Chinese language Internet search provider.
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Inflated stock, will likely have a pretty good correction here.
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I think this is a great stock but do not see its progress forward, especially if china opens its borders and allows Bing and Google to come in. I will put a long term underperform, though short term, I think they will ride high
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It's had a great run but I find no way to justify it's lofty rating, especially with the shady GDP numbers coming out of China right now.
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When the dam breaks here I will head for higher ground.
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looking over a cliff
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stepping in front of a train
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With the stock market likely close to its high for the year, I think that BIDU has a lot of downside potential.
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Baidu is overpiced here by any metric and valuation assumption. Price has been driven up by momentum players and irrational exuberance. Also one analyst has stated (and probably correctly) that up to 80% of Baidu's traffic is MP3 (illegal) searches. With chinese gov't cracking down they stand to lose some or all of this traffic which would be a huge blow to their revenue and traffic. I made my money on BIDU and now I'm out. Will revisit if it gets in the mid 100's to low 200 range.
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A high PE plus some big volume declines recently strongly suggests that BIDU's run is over for the time being. The market looks like it's going to cool down for the fall, and that's especially bad for stocks like this one.
This is probably still a decent stock for the long run, but now certainly isn't the time to get in. Take another look in a few months.
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Although it is a great company with a solid economic moat around it, a 70+ PE ratio shows the expectations of earnings growth implied in its price are ginormous.
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Baidu is bound to get in big trouble for running their mp3 service that allows millions of Chinese to download copyrighted music. Please read the report through the first link that studied Baidu for 6-months and concluded that their management is behind massive copyright fraud. You will not want to own Baidu after you read these links:
‘China’s nonstop music machine’ - Comprehensive 6-Month Forensic Study Slams Baidu, Implicates Management in Assisting in Massive Copyright Infringement
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/09/13/baidu_investigation/
Labels seek billions in damages over Baidu MP3 deep-linking
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2008/04/labels-seek-billions-in-damages-over-baidu-mp3-deep-linking.ars
The Dark Truth About China’s Baidu
http://www.music2dot0.com/archives/145
Being the Change: The Ethics of Baidu
http://siliconhutong.typepad.com/silicon_hutong/2008/09/being-the-change-the-ethics-of-baidu.html
2005 Chinese Govt Report Attributes Baidu Success to MP3 Downloads
http://libweb.uoregon.edu/ec/e-asia/read/searchmart.pdf
Baidu sued over music downloads
http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?pp_cat=2&art_id=1457&sid=4582527&con_type=1
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Yes china is attractive, but this is bordering on the ridiculous. There is no projection or metric that can make this one look attractive...I don't like either but given the choice between this and Google I'd back the latter, no contest.
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All good things come to an end. They are growing (price wise) too fast to actually stay there. I would look for it to pull back within the next month or so. The forward P/E is half of the current one.
Awesome job to all those that caught this run up though!
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BIDU is FAR from a deal at $333. Save your money.
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It s gone up too much too fast!!
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Just being "hip".
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High run up in price over the last 3 months.
Time for some profit taking in the next few weeks.
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HaHa China can use google too,and they will. Nationalism is dying but the nation might make this one die also.
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China has allot of people and an emerging middle class. Their middle class is not spending as much as the US middle class and this recession will stunt that growth. Also I do not like someo of the missing parts of reports when I look this stock up on the web. It looks like its been subject to crazy ammounts of manipulation. These scenarios usually end badly for stock holders
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It's game over for China

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