Brookdale Senior Living, Inc. (BKD)
Operator of senior living facilities in the United States. The Company offers its residents access to a full continuum of services across all sectors of the senior living industry.
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"Hey, let's buy some more losing properties and take on some more yummy debt. It goes so well with our 0.62 current ratio!"
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Demand will increase as baby boomers age.
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Doctrow says BUY
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can't go much farther down
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Can you say baby boomers?
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Baby boomer will need assisted living as they hit age 60 at the rate of too many, too fast.
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Conan Holder < 1.5 (bankruptcy risk > 75%), Altman for private companies Z score < 1.23. This company is in bad shape; other companies with valuation problems: BOW, CMS, TRY.B, LUK, LPX, SNSTA, TECUA, XRIT, CAR, VOD, GDP, MDZ, MCF, EPL, VMED, MIC, LINE, BKD ,AAV, EROC.
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Private equity possibility, nice divvy, flat chart for years with good growth and low exposure to RE issues.
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strong, undervaluated industry
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Older Boomers = more business. Increased dividend.
Insider buying after stock sale.
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I know that they don't have any net income on a US GAAP basis, but they are generating cash from operations. If you look at this from a property investment play, the "depreciation" that is recorded in net income really doesn't mean a lot, b/c it will (hopefully) be recovered from the gain on the sale of the properties. However, I don't think you ever see this potential in the financial statements, so you really have to know a lot about the company's properties to get this perspective... like some insiders might know (ala Toys R' Us and K Mart). With the large insider purchases, this makes me wonder.
All of this by the way is just a guess, and purely something I would only do in CAPS. I'm sure someone who actually takes the time to read their SEC filings may find some flawed logic in all of this, but in the meantime, I'll let the bingo chips fall where they may.
Recs
Brookdale will overextend it's purchasing of properties for another year.

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