Bionovo Inc (NASDAQ:BNVI)
A drug discovery and development company,which focuses on cancer and women's health.
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Recs
I took my first bite of Bionovo a few months ago but made a note of their troubled past history. I was rewarded for my risk-taking with a near double, only to see the gains rapidly evaporate in the face of the debt crisis. I decided to dust off that old game from 2008 - end the pick with a positive score close to the price I opened it, then green thumb it again at a lower entry price. Once again a sizable gain evaporated with a broad market decline and I barely escaped with a positive score.
Here I am for the third time, with only a week left before the company has broken its promise to initiate the first phase III trial of Menerba for menopausal hot flashes before the end of Q3. The share price really should take off at some point after the trial is initiated and before it finishes towards the end of 2012. Unfortunately, the company still doesn't seem to have learned to preserve cash and is already down to 13M despite raising 27M just six months ago. I'm foreseeing another capital raise with a bump on initiation of the phase III trial. If they don't get that bump, they're in trouble. That's too much risk for my real portfolio given the number of safer alternatives, but it's a fun experiment for CAPS.
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Company is developing snake-oil products and management constantly dilutes. Company will probably go under.
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Should bounce back with some good news.
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short term play
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- Bionovo published a new class of therapeutic compounds showing promise for the safe, effective treatment of menopausal symptoms such as hot flashes in the journal: Molecular and Cellular Endocrinology. (Nov. '07)
- Bionovo presented the mechanism of action data behind its anti-cancer agent, BZL101, currently undergoing Phase 1/2 clinical testing for late stage breast cancer at the American Assoc. of Cancer Research (AACR). (Oct. '07)
- Positive phase 2 trial data for Bionovo's lead menopause drug, MF101, was presented and deemed the top scoring abstract at the North American Menopause Society's annual meeting. The abstract, entitled, "A Novel Selective Estrogen Receptor-Beta Agonist for the Treatment of Menopauysal Hot Flashes," was presented by the company's principal investigator, Dr. Deborah Grady, the world's leading expert on menopause. the abstract was also published in the journal, Menopause. It is not possible to overstate the importance of this "proof of concept" trial, which was an unqualified success against the objectives set. (Oct. '07)
- Bionovo's lead menopause drug candidate, MG101, showed positive sagety, tolerability and efficacy in its Phase 2 trial. As mentioned above, this trial quite successfully met its objectives, and can now move forward in developing this safe and efficacious treatment for an indication that is poorly served by the current pharmaceutical offereings. (June '07)
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it is a very good druge,and it is going to take some time but it will be big....
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Secondary offering of $25 mill at $2.5 a share. Eastern homopathy meets western medicine.
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The menapause drug and breast cancer drug, pending approval, will carry this stock into double digits.
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Way too high price/sales and price/book
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These guys will essentially have a monopoly in the
$2-6 billion menopause mkt when MF101 gets approved with virtually no side effects.
Not to mention the breast cancer drug in phase 2 that has a $800M-$2BILLION MKT per year.
Here is a great article on BNVI writen by a former MotleyFool writer.
Check it out!
http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/070618/38634_id.html?.v=1
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They have a great product pipeline and the recent trials were positive. Quite a large number of shares became free trading recently which is temporarily keeping the sale price dowm. This stock is going to outperform!
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Four drugs in the pipeline just waiting for the first one to pop. Target $25 in three years
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New drugs will enter the market successfully
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Director sells 30k worth of stock at $5.50. Good time for me to rate this an underperform, although it may hit it out of the park someday by curing cancer.....
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Risky - but looks very promising for BIG returns - their main drug is not out of trials yet, but it treats postmenopausal women, which is a huge market
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