+ Watch BPI
on My Watchlist
This is in technical freefall and has further to go, methinks. It recovered from a previous freefall on suspicions that things really aren't so bad. I personally think they are very bad, right down to the very business model. There are just better and cheaper ways to get a quality education. Profit motive really has no business as a motivator in education.
Accreditation issues are behind it. New student enrollment is turning around. With college tuition costs so high, I expect students to look for more valuable alternatives in the future.
Jim Gillies round table 11/7/2013
Motley Incredible Value Pick
This looks like a case of a solid company being excessively punished for the poor results of a single quarter. Never mind the $300M+ cash or the consistent, $100M+ cash flow capabilities... Lol. If only I had about $800M, I would buy out the entire company and make an absolute killing in the future.
Solid financials, got busted for regulatory issues and changing landscape of commercial education but well positioned going forward
Net cash position (including investments) of $515 million, which implies $9.51 of cash per share. The main raincloud over this stock is Ashford University losing its accreditation, which accounts for 96% of Bridgepoint's revenues. Though I do not claim to predict the outcome of this situation, the stock is worth at least $18 even if enrollment at Ashford is more than cut in half. At a price of $10.47 this stock is such a bargain that there is a large margin of safety: the "worst-case" scenario of Ashford losing its accreditation means that revenues may slowly decline for a few years then fall precipitously (assuming management does absolutely nothing), but with the current cash position, Bridgepoint's stock is already massively depressed. The risk-reward on this one is quite favorable.
The feds are on to this scam of an industry....
Provider of education over the internet. The world is looking for education that is easily accessed and can be affordable.
Stock market overreacted to delay in accreditation on the west coast. Any news of improvement on the accreditation status will improve the price.
Kids need jobs. Degree job % > non-degree %. Employers do not check the accreditation of colleges. Unfairly punished. Outperforming its current price by far.
losing accreditation pos going to zero
They will get new or maintain old accreditation.
They cannot afford to lose accreditation and once it is solid, the market will restore its price.
I'm doubling down. If they achieve accreditation then my gain will be greater than my loss if they dont.
A better company than any of the others in its sector, and recent downtrend from bad news presents an excellent buying opportunity.
Simply put, they are oversold. BPI will not allow their accreditation to be revoked, without it they go out of business. At the moment the news is horrible, but the selloff has literally brought them down to little more than their cash. It simply doesn't make sense.
"The HLC has asked Ashford University to prove that it has an effective way to monitor student learning and outcomes. It has also been asked to establish its autonomy from Bridgepoint, and prove that it spends sufficient money on student retention and education."The Higher Learning Commission has to have some credibility itself or it's going to be viewed as a sham commission. If you read above what the HLC is asking Ashford to do, I come to the conclusion that it won't be difficult or expensive to comply with HLC's requests. They don't want to put Ashford out of business, they just want them to shape up a bit. Ashford may contribute a little less to BPI's profits but at this point BPI is trading at a PE of less than 4 with NO debt and $327 million in cash!! With 50 million shares outstanding, BPI has a cash position equal to $6.25 per share. Remember too that they have a share repurchase program in place and are likely repurchasing shares as we speak. If they get a feeling that HLC will continue their accreditation, expect this share repurchase program to be accelerated.
I have ALOT of money in this stock do you think it will recover soon?
short term play
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