Boise, Inc. (NYSE:BZ)

Adding on a drop ahead of earnings report. Expecting good things ...

Boise is a paper and packaging business. It was owned by Private Equity (MDP) pre 2008. Imagine they would have trimmed a lot of the operational fat. Also has paid some healthy dividends. Nonetheless, look where it trades to its peers:

BZ: 4.8x EBITDA

Paper peers (EV/LTM EBITDA):
Domtar: 4.1x
Sappi: 5.3x
Neenah: 6.0x
International Paper: 8.8x

Packaging peers:
Kapstone: 9.5x
Packaging Corp of America: 9.1x
Rock-Tenn: 8.3x

2012 performance
193M in paper EBITDA
163M in packaging EBITDA

so taking the lowest multiple from each group of peers, you end up with:
(4.1 * 193) + (8.3 * 163) = 2144.2 Enterprise Value

subtract debt (780)
add cash (50)
Equals 1.414B

discount by 20% because these analyses are always sketchy
Equals 1.131B

Current Equity Value: $865M

Upside: 30%+

Two strong divisions, paper and packaging, are poised for steady performance as our economy returns, at last, to a better growth trajectory

My conservative Graham-Dodd based 5 year valuation projects a 303% return on this stock.

Stock is cheap. Good value play!

Low P/E. Shares being accumulated by insiders and institutions

Here is a vote for the home team! Growth potential will continue to be there.

With a recuperation of the economy, however gradual, Boise is poised to take advantage of increased demand of its paper and packaging products for office supply and shipping purposes. Also, the company has a niche carved out in the Northwest and another in the Midwest, enjoying limited competition in these areas.

Good bounce back after Dividend was paid.

Owned this stock off and on in the last two years. Should have bought more of it when it briefly dipped below 5 recently. Like this as an innovative paper maker and packaging supplier. Like the explosive price moves up recently. Admit to have taken some off the table too. Looking forward to a long-term play here.

Low Price/OCF

Technicals

low p/e low p/b

Well below book value.

In this Bear market only the basics, makes sense. BZ resources match up with real manufacturing needs during a recovering economy.

very well run Company and has the ability to outperform the competition

Id be carefull with this one in real life as the net profit margin isnt big, 3.7 or so.... and debt ratio 1.8 , but ill definetly pick it here

Bosie will outperform because of the management. This a well run company. Paper is a never ending industry. I like this company because it is priced well, with a lot of head room in the long position.

low p/e and makes containers will rise after xmas.