Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (NYSE:BZH)

westhawkoreo (29.45) Submitted: 4/19/2007 5:07:51 PM : Start Price: $32.04 BZH Score: +85.98

The weak housing market makes this stock undesireable over the next 6 to 12 months. Once interest rates begin their decline, this company could once again be considered.

Allstar13913 (99.85) Submitted: 3/30/2007 3:19:13 PM : Start Price: $28.63 BZH Score: +89.12

This stock, much like other homebuilders and subprime lenders is just waiting to collapse. I look forward to watching it fall in the next several months.

On Wednesday, (3/28/2007) it was revealed that Beazer Homes USA (nyse: BZH - news - people ) was being investigated by a number of government agencies for its mortgage business. On Thursday, in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Beazer said it had received a federal grand jury subpoena.

Shares of Beazer were down 20 cents, or 0.7%, to $29.08, in Friday morning trading. A year ago, the stock traded above $60.

fOOLSONPARADE (98.42) Submitted: 3/27/2007 6:18:51 PM : Start Price: $28.31 BZH Score: +88.92

Maybe it is my environmental side, but I am smiling at the recent news on a FBI investigation. It is payback time for the homebuilders and all the trashy loans they have been dishing out. At least the rampant development that has been eating up all the beautiful countryside around my home town will be spared for awhile.

shiloh116 (69.83) Submitted: 3/27/2007 4:23:07 PM : Start Price: $28.31 BZH Score: +88.92

Another one that has default issues and now an FBI Investigation; not good!

NetscribeHomeBui (< 20) Submitted: 2/28/2007 8:51:43 AM : Start Price: $40.04 BZH Score: +93.28

Beazer designs, builds and sells homes for single families across five geographic regions namely, West, Mid Atlantic, Florida, Southeast and Other. These regions also form the reportable business segments as well. Catering to such a large number of markets help the company to deal with risk in case some markets are weak.

Revenues for the year 2006 had improved 9.3% while the 1Q 07 witnessed a 27.4% decrease. Average sales price has improved 1% in the first quarter to $280,300. The number of homes closed declined by 30.5% and the net loss stood at around $59 million. Additionally a debt of almost $1.7 billion and a cash position of only $150.2 million mean that the company is highly leveraged.

The homebuilding industry had an amazing run from 1995 to 2005 with around 13.5 million homes being built during this period. But things have gone downhill since then. Speculative buying, inflated prices in some hot markets and variable interest mortgage have taken their toll on the industry. Endorsing the same, the first quarter of 2007 faced extremely low levels of demand, high cancellation rates and significant levels of discounting. Even competitors like Toll Brothers, a leading builder of American luxury homes have reported lower revenues.

Industry experts do not expect this weak environment to end anytime soon. The backlog at the end of the period was around 4221 homes and $1.29 billion in units and sales dollars respectively. The unit backlog is down 54% from last year and 17% from the previous quarter. Beazer has already announced that it expects sales to be at the low end of their 12,000 to 30,500 homes outlook for FY 07. Additionally, even if the company has an excellent spring selling season, these sales would not close until after September 2007 which is its fiscal year end. In such a hostile industry environment, it would not be advisable to rely on this scrip, with the company’s going expected to be tough in 2007.

Texicaniraq (86.17) Submitted: 2/9/2007 10:59:40 AM : Start Price: $40.52 BZH Score: +90.28

BLP

redmust (60.22) Submitted: 2/2/2007 5:09:54 PM : Start Price: $43.84 BZH Score: +90.88

Housing will fall further

JNak (91.11) Submitted: 1/26/2007 11:22:26 PM : Start Price: $45.13 BZH Score: +92.99

Home prices have gone up too quickly (way too quickly in some parts) and there's too much inventory. Housing won't get back on track until home prices come down and that inventory gets bought up. Beazer themselves expect that this process will take the greater part of 2007. Historically home buying also tends to be seasonal, with Dec - Feb averaging fewer overall sales, so 2008 is the best case scenario.

liberty458 (< 20) Submitted: 12/7/2006 10:47:50 PM : Start Price: $46.32 BZH Score: +93.67

i believe Beazer homes and many other home builders will underperform the market, i belive we have reached the top sometime ago and it is time for profit taking if you have not done so in that sector

TrendIsMyFriend (< 20) Submitted: 11/30/2006 9:25:10 PM : Start Price: $45.23 BZH Score: -93.93

Next yr this company easy 60$.
Stop loss 40$

It's going to be so sweet to watch short squeeze :)

MCKInathan (97.65) Submitted: 10/27/2006 5:12:37 PM : Start Price: $42.82 BZH Score: +95.73

Lots of talk right now about whether the housing market will have a soft landing or is crashing. Either way, I see house building stocks heading south faster than the S&P. Speculation is high right now and since the economic growth report missed its expected mark, I think the pessimist will win out for most large scale investors.

After so many months of great returns, I think investors are willing to take their profits and look elsewhere, especially if the overall market really turns south.

advsys (< 20) Submitted: 10/3/2006 7:36:50 PM : Start Price: $38.41 BZH Score: +98.26

Housing market is a true bubble. As this slowly becomes apparent over the next 6 months, most housing stocks will start a steep decline. Traditionally in a bubble, the key players drop by at least 80 percent from their all time high.

gerrat7 (37.27) Submitted: 10/3/2006 1:31:57 AM : Start Price: $38.71 BZH Score: -98.70

good company trading at 3.5 times earnings. Following the herd gets you no where.

kris112 (< 20) Submitted: 9/20/2006 12:54:14 PM : Start Price: $39.55 BZH Score: -99.35

Coming off of lows.