The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAKE)

Trend bullish since october 2011. The stock has tested 2 times his 20MA and since November 2011 is above 50MA.
Good fundamentals and P/E lower than industry.
Industry chart also is well oriented.
I'll take a shot at 29.46
My stop is at 28.74
First target 30.76 (~+4.95%)

What I see /read and expierance its an outperformer

For some reason, cheesecake sells in this economy. I quote from the NYT, "One thriving category in the treat-yourself economy has been cheesecake, with sales rising 22 percent in the last year, according to the SymphonyIRI data."

Will this translate to CAKE? Lets see...

Cheesecake Factory is a high quality restaurant chain that people don't have to pay ridiculous amounts for, call three months in advance to make a reservation, or dress up in their best clothing for. For these reasons all of their locations are very frequently crowded, and they have to form a waiting list. Just knowing that their products taste good is a very reassuring thought. Cheesecake is a family favorite. All these things add up to the one thing that makes us all happy. Besides their great food, Cheesecake Factory is going to be giving high returns in the future.

I reupped Cake because I felt the reasons I took them off changed. Oil prices are lower and the Company has reported good earnings. They changed their menu to include more light menu items. They reported earnings per share gains of 31% in the last quarter (2Q:2011). They only have 164 stores, but they grow that store base slowly.

My Cap price is $27.22 - the PE ratio is 18.27. They have $58 million in cash and no debt. Even after capital expenditures, they are producing $2.20 per share in cash flow giving them a cash flow yield of 8%. I think that makes them cheap.

Sliders and cheesecake, ftw.

Large Cap stock at 1.9b so PE is the focus. Avg 5 yr PE 22.7.
Q3, EPS=0.99. Based on Average PE, target 22.47. At that time it was 30.37, overpriced by 30+%. The new earnings from Q3 would put the target at (0.99+.36)*22.7=30.65 so people sold off on the Q3 report because the stock was priced right before the report. The sell off eventually reversed and trended up to 30.74 before pulling back so the correct price is still 30.65 before the Q4 report. Even if the stock hit the low estimate of 0.31, that would put the next target at (.99+.36+.31)*22.7=37.68 so the stock has some room to move even on the the worst case earnings.

over-valued

As we come out of the Great Recession companies like this one will reap dividends from their business model, which was good enough to get them through the tough times. This company will be one of the strongest competitors in the next upswing.

short watchlist
lny,pfcb,cake,lulu,thc,udr,eqr,mac,wynn,crm,pcln,ivn,anv,amzn,dan,open,cree,netl,bas

"fresh": lny, pfcb, cake, thc, eqr, mac, wynn, crm, ivn, dan, netl, bas

Good client flow in upscale market,I see good consistant performance in present & long term investment! dont delay on this one..(U snooze..)

sales beat expectations.

CAKE holding above 50dayMA

strength in restaurant sector

This CAKE has been yummy for years! I have seen this the first time CNBC had a short story on it and have been following it since. Although it got caught up in the pull back of March 09. It is still cheap and the growth of the company is motivating! I say BUY BUY BUY! When I get my tax return check I will be doing just that

OK folks, we have a value investor’s winner here!!! Look at its price chart over the past ten years and you can see that it, on average, has outpaced both the Dow and the S&P. This is in the face of an early decade recession and the current Depression 2. How does a quirky restaurant like CAKE generate its' net income? Let’s take a closer look at some of its' internal workings. First debt...worst case scenario it would pay out a little less than .50 on the dollar if it went heads up. Since it hasn't increased outstanding shares over the past ten years, seems to indicate good management. Its debt/equity ratio is .29 versus S&P's ratio of $1.11. So we can easily see CAKE isn't using debt to aggressively generate revenue. Many other positive indicators but lets move on. Its current P/E of 22.87 is lower than its ten year average of 27.5. Its depreciation and amortization is about 22% of its gross profits over the past five years which again shows smart management. Its gross profit margin has been about 20% over the past ten years, not great but definitely worth the risk. Now value investors, listen up. I calculate based on CAKE's last ten years of share holder's equity and current price that it is greatly undervalued. As a rough rule of thumb, I would say that it is going for 23% of what the current price should be for a 20% return over the next ten years. I can go on but I don't want to get one of those charms that show lengthily pitches. After I max out Hersey's, I am definitely turning to CAKE.

HaHaHa!!!!!! Strapped consumer, layoffs, higher oil and commodity prices - has been purely a momo play without NO REGARD to fundamentals.

GOOD CHEESECAKES

good cheesecakes

Ads in the menu are not my idea of upscale. I guess I just don't get this restaurant, but then I hate malls and cheesecake, so I'm probably not their target audience.

The name doesn't help either. It sounds too much like "cottage cheese factory", which is what women's thighs turn into when they eat too much cheesecake.

Overheard in 2007: "Let's go to the mall and have some cheesecake!"

Overheard in 2011: Lord Humungous visits the CF factory.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TL4XZdyo3g