The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. (CAKE)

HaHaHa!!!!!! Strapped consumer, layoffs, higher oil and commodity prices - has been purely a momo play without NO REGARD to fundamentals.

GOOD CHEESECAKES

good cheesecakes

Ads in the menu are not my idea of upscale. I guess I just don't get this restaurant, but then I hate malls and cheesecake, so I'm probably not their target audience.

The name doesn't help either. It sounds too much like "cottage cheese factory", which is what women's thighs turn into when they eat too much cheesecake.

Restaurant - Hate to come out bearish, but the run up on most restaurants is showing a lot more than the consumer confidence numbers. Earnings will be lower

Overheard in 2007: "Let's go to the mall and have some cheesecake!"

Overheard in 2011: Lord Humungous visits the CF factory.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TL4XZdyo3g

A stomach pick. Memories of dining there make my mouth water. Long term survivability is high.

There continues to be a long line for the Cheescake Factory at our local mall. you get large portions for your money which I believe people will see the value in. I don't think declining retail trends at the mall will significanlty effect CAKE. I believe that people go to the mall BECAUSE of the Cheesecake Factory (and then maybe do some window shopping). I don't think there is a significant factor of "gee I'm tired of shopping lets go stand in line for 45 minutes and have lunch". I think CF is the destination.

Has solid financial s and a proven formula for their restaurant brands. They have the ability to double the number of locations when the economy turns around. A good time to accumulate stock for the long haul.

Fundamentals: Here we are in a great recession and we STILL have to wait to be seated. Franchises don't come more solid than that. My only restaurant stock.

Down further in the short term. However I strongly believe this company will 'weather the storm' making this a good long term buy. I agree there may be some location closures in the short term.

Eating near the shopping mall? Only Burger King, maybe.

Should've done this months ago, but time to downgrade a slew of consumer discretionary/retail companies. We are going to see a change in the standard of living in this country over the next decade, and these companies are flat out not going to see the performance of the past.

I think CAKE has been hit below a P/E below 8 not only because of its status as a restaurant, but also in reaction to a current ratio of 0.8, possibly looking for it to go under due to credit problems. (even though its short interest hasn't really skyrocketed)

I think this is a mistake, however. The only long-term debt CAKE has is a revolving facility due in 2012. If we're not out of the credit crunch by then, we'll have bigger things to worry about. As CAKE slows down new store openings, its operating cash flow will turn into free cash flow. The stock buyback earlier this year was ill-advised in hindsight, but I think it is far from something that will doom the company.

A good time to get in I think they have a strong upside as expansion continues rapidly- strong management and the restaurants are packed means they will profit and grow even in tough times

Long term play

This customer is a scale or two above your typical casual diner and more able to afford, even in tougher times. Wait times are increasing which means more demand. They maintain high standards on employee performance and demand the best from them. Key to successful operation. Cheescake is also very good! Slow, calculated organic growth. I live near the new Allen TX store and doing fairly well given the multiple competitors opening around same time... Oh, and decent numbers also... sure they missed last quarter but.. duh. My term is longer.

If you're looking short term, very risky. I have no doubt, however, that long-term this is a chain that will not only survive, but flourish. Even as Americans tighten their belts and put a clamp on their wallets, the restaurants that have good tasting food and a pleasant atmosphere will survive. Few such restaurants are chains, and I can think of none that have the breadth and depth of the Cheesecake Factory. Unless we hit a depression (unlikely), it'll be at 30 within 3 years, if not higher.

If you're really unsure, then wait till it drops below $10 (40% chance of that, blind guess), and pick some up. I don't think it'll "jump" anytime soon, but I've got my alerts set to see if and when it does.

ick