Caterpillar, Inc. (CAT)

The U.S. market is not all that important to Caterpillar - probably represent no more than 20% of their total sales volume. The majority of their product is not made in China, and before long their corporate offices will be outside of the U.S. Caterpillar is a private company and is not beholding to the U.S. - the tax rates are much lower in Brazil.

Poor fundamentals, near 52 week high.

People are pumped up on earnings. I think this is a time to take the opposite side. It missed on revenues. Made the number by cost cutting. They also projected FY-09 higher but adding the difference in of their beat, looks like the company is projecting to miss analyst estimates next quarter.

Downthumb. Will be hard to compete in tomorrow's market with Chinese manufacturers. Good cash flow. Low sales growth rate. Low cap-ex. Very high debt load.

With EPS growth at -52% year over year, and revenue down nearly 40%, I think this stock is very over valued. With that being said the stock is up 37% year over year. Which means this stock is due to go down.

Can't understand why this has gone up so far with so little evidence.

We're coming to the end of a roughly 30 year commodity cycle and with the second leg of the recession only a quarter or two away, the earnings projections seem to optimistic to me.

Has had a great run with this overextended mkt banking on a V shaped economic recover, which will not happen and when the mkt realizes that,soon it will be back down the slide for a little while. Also the assumption that China will create contnuous demand for infrastructure build is also a little overhyped...

test pitch

Although CAT has a great brand name, the equipment that they build now is not what it used to be. Competitors such as Komatsu and Liebherr are offering very good equipment without the name brand premium.

Too much optimism surrounding this company. Now looking expensive. Plus, free cash flow doesn't cover the dividend.

The recent run up in this stock is overdone as is the optimism for a V-shaped recovery in housing which would seem to be requisite to justify the current price.

There is a strong likelihood that the company will cut the common dividend later this year and that will have an adverse impact on the stock price when it happens as this outcome is not fully priced into the stock price.

Furthermore the company's growing debt load is concerning as are the tax proposals before congress regarding the taxation of foreign profits for US multinationals. Both the debt and uncertainty surrounding US tax policy going forward are really going to hamper the financial flexibility of this firm in the very near-term.

To put the debt burden in perspective, the company's operating margin last quarter was insufficient to even cover the interest expense for the period and their sequential quarterly revenue continues to shrink. They have already cut-out share buybacks and the dividend will be the next to go.

If they don't get their operating deficits under control or if there is an adverse tax policy outcome in Washington (which is likely given the government's own burgeoning deficits) then their marginal cost of borrowing is likely to continue to mushroom out of control.

This all does not bode well for near-term stock price performance.

I give them a near-term underperform.

Impact of the China stimulus is overdone, especially if the new administration opts to tax the heck out of those profits.

I'm watching out for a dividend cut in the short term. After that's been factored in, and the stock gets beaten down much further, I'll consider buying for the long term.

We are in what will soon be called the great recession and later on down the road will be called the 2nd depression. How do you think CAT fares in that scenario?

This company is worst than a casino the global industry sales is down 47% Caterpillar got its boost from the 7x expansion of wealth from 2001-2007 and from emerging markets. If the USA is having a cold right now the rest of the world is having pneumonia South Korea GDP's is down 20% and Japan's 12%. Just making the rationale if the sector sales are down almost 50% The stock best scenario would be EPS of 2.90 - 3.20, now, that's just focusing on sales, now look for the layoffs benefits, inventories markdown and an overproduction of equipment that will need to be depreciated if the turnaround doesn't comes quick enough. If you want to know what's the problem with this market is called overproduction, the same happened in 1929. There's a lot of everything but no consumers for it. Machinery equipment prices isn't the exception, right now the prices for heavy equipment are dropping big time and squeezing any possible profits. Short stock or wait aside, might be a buy in the low 20's high 10's.

They will lay off more workers yet.This one's going back down.

Insane amounts of debt! I thought the casino industry had lots of debt! obamas stim pack will not be enough to increase it's revenue/margins, plus overcapacity, i don't know if china's stim pack will save this. Oh yes! if banks cant finance construction,then were the hell are construction and small mining companies going to get the money to buy this. I think credit expansion in the last 20 years has been a large factor of its growth and will be its downfall.

This recession will continue for at least one more year.. there will not be a demand for Caterpillar's equipment

steel too high, no building new or otherwise. Tough times ahead.