Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL)

Stormy weather will continue to cloud Carnival Corp.’s outlook for some time, particularly if unfortunate incidents continue to accrue. Lawsuits will complicate quick recovery.

Bad news keeps on coming in.

Its been beat up enough. Carnival is geared to a young crowd and this bad news will blow over.

This is already a tough business to operate within -- tough competition from RCL and other cruise lines, rising fuel prices, etc.

One of the last things this company needed was to be put on the world stage with one of their boats capsized in the water with stories of divers searching for bodies in the wreckage for the past couple of days. As Tom Gibbs mentioned in his article (http://beta.fool.com/gibbstom13/2012/01/31/ccl-and-look-successful-pr/1517/?source=TheMotleyFool), CCL has not come out to address this disaster with the public. It's been over two weeks since the disaster occurred, how long does it take a large company to come out and address the public with an apology, a statement that they're going to fully cooperate (in an investigation, cleanup, etc.), and propose a plan to make things right for all affected parties? The lack of expediency and cooperation that the company is displaying damages the company's brand with each passing day.

Based on how things have played out thus far, I imagine that this will drag out in the media for quite some time. There will be continued coverage when: criminal charges are announced, large civil suits are filed by passengers, local governments and businesses claim that they've been impacted by the disaster and need to be reimbursed, etc. Not as many people will want to cruise with CCL as they watch how the company poorly handles the situation and treats the victims -- they will lose customers and this will affect their top/bottom lines.

I also believe that the actual cost of the disaster will be far greater than the intial estimates that they've proposed. Cruise ships cost several hundred million dollars to build, environmental cleanup is not free, paying lawyers and settling lawsuits will be costly, etc. In fact, the stock price will take a hit each of the next few quarters when the company reveals that the actual costs exceed the estimates from the previous quarter...

Damage to the brand name, drop off in bookings, costs of disaster exceeding estimates... This stock hasn't hit bottom yet and there's no way it's going to beat the S&P over the next year or two.

The people who go on carnival cruises are not the people who check the news everyday... they are not the people with money to go on a princess cruise instead... They are kids looking for great deals over spring break and modest families looking for a summer vacation with their kids.
This crash has spooked some investors and is what I would refer to as a good opportunity to make a modest gain off of something that will be forgotten in 3 months.
And sometimes you have to wonder if the media which makes such a big deal out of this event does make it such a big deal so that they can make a gain themselves... I know it's conspiracy... I'm just saying

Sinking a ship during a pass and review can't be good for business.

Ahhh , the pain.. The ship will be cut into scrap, insurance will resist payment, due to negligence, and the poor fish and reef will suffer. Never I for a cruise.. Pray for safe clean-up.

The Italian disaster is tragic, but the news will fade fast, and the selloff is disproportionate to any liabilities that will come from it.

After it plummeted today i expect it to come back up atleast 10%

Italian crash will fall out of the news and people will keep on going on vacations.

With the recent cruise incident, investors are allowing emotions to take controll and sell off a company tht they shouldn't sell off. Economy is slowly startin to return and this is the best cruise line and newest of them all. 5 years from now they will be trading in the $40s and if they arnt then a stock split occurred and you would still be in a great position for the future

This reminds me of the reaction to the BP oil spill. Panicked investors ran for the doors, but those who bought in when the situation looked bleak were rewarded handsomely.

Boldly buying bad news. I'll do some more analysis on this later.

Market over-reacts to sinking ship news

This type of news takes some time to recover from, customers could be turned off from CCL for awhile.

I think the next couple of months are going to be hard on CCL. I wouldn't expect any rebounding during this time.

Uh oh

In light of the recent disaster at Giglio, Italy, who could possibly bet on shares OUTPERFORMING ?

will drop from recent cruise crash, will reverse to outperform soon after (unless really screws up PR)

12/18