Codexis Inc Com (NASDAQ:CDXS)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

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noobtery (50.59)
Submitted October 12, 2010

Founded in 2002 as a spin-out from drug developer Maxygen (which now owns an approximately 21.3 percent stake), Codexis counts oil giants Shell, Chevron, Pfizer and CMEA Capital among its backers. The company’s technology involves taking a natural… More

line70day (32.85)
Submitted June 22, 2012

net income -16.553/31/12 deficit of $20.30 million have lost millions for few yrs will be required to find more finaning to continue business

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Member Avatar TMFBlacknGold (34.51) Submitted: 4/11/2016 1:02:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.00 CDXS Score: +138.54

I owned Codexis back when it was pursuing cellulase enzymes with Royal Dutch Shell from the C1 license from Dyadic. Everyone I have ever talked to thought Codexis had the best cellulase enzymes available (it still comes up in conversations with scientists from time to time, as if they're romanticizing about the past, "Man, that was some excellent tech"), and the data seemed to back that up. But of course, renewable fuels are difficult to commercialize and Big Oil bailed on many investments in upstart technology platforms. Shell ran to Iogen in Canada instead of Codexis, but only because Iogen had more manufacturing / process experience and technology. Codexis only had the enzymes.

Now it's been a few years, management has been shaken up, and CEO Nichols has pivoted the focus to one of Codexis' core strengths: pharmaceuticals. You don't win three (3) EPA Green Chemistry Awards by mistake. That's up there with big, bad, blue chip companies that have been around for decades, if not centuries.

Codexis is growing at a healthy clip, although one-time milestone payments will cause some volatility in year-to-year revenue and income comparisons at these relatively low levels. Given the low-risk tendency of management (the company hasn't raised financing since its IPO in 2011), I don't see it making a big push to take on debt, expand rapidly, and attempt to grow at 50% or more per year to nab market share away from the giants (Novozymes, Genencor, BASF). They're playing the long game. And although this is excellent technology at the core, Codexis isn't but a spec of dust on the mite on the shoe of the leaders in the industry.

That works, too, but that means it will take many years to grow to an appreciable level. For instance, it appears Codexis needs to double product revenue to generate net income on an annual basis. That's certainly in the works, but it will be a few more years. No matter, the growth they have, plus landing a few more big pharma contracts in the next few years for additional milestone / upfront payments will be enough to keep the stock heading up and to the right. Throw in the potential to work in biologics and food manufacturing -- where there are tremendous growth prospects -- and the deal gets even sweeter. I don't put much value on their wholly-owned therapeutics project(s), but it's very early on that anyway.

Recs

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Member Avatar griderX (97.75) Submitted: 8/15/2014 10:11:58 AM : Outperform Start Price: $2.23 CDXS Score: +128.72

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Member Avatar 2win (< 20) Submitted: 1/13/2014 4:10:16 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.38 CDXS Score: +276.32

rebuying lower

Leaderboard

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Score Leader

2win

2win (< 20) Score: +259.86

The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in CDXS.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
2win < 20 1/14/2014 Outperform NS $1.38 +313.04% +36.73% +276.32 1 Comment
Timer7 59.27 12/3/2013 Outperform 5Y $1.47 +287.76% +38.70% +249.06 0 Comment
DCD1253 < 20 10/18/2013 Outperform 5Y $1.79 +218.44% +43.19% +175.24 0 Comment
Currency < 20 7/30/2014 Outperform 3Y $1.96 +190.82% +26.09% +164.72 0 Comment
steelhead13 92.72 8/19/2013 Outperform 5Y $1.87 +204.81% +50.46% +154.35 0 Comment
CrapOnAstick < 20 8/8/2014 Outperform 5Y $2.10 +171.43% +30.17% +141.26 0 Comment
This player feels very strongly about this pick and has marked it a Top Pick. Top Picks do not affect a player’s score. TMFBlacknGold 34.51 8/14/2013 Outperform 5Y $2.00 +185.71% +47.17% +138.54 1 Comment
griderX 97.75 8/15/2014 Outperform 5Y $2.23 +155.61% +26.88% +128.72 1 Comment
hayrettin 70.55 11/14/2014 Outperform 5Y $2.32 +145.69% +21.99% +123.70 0 Comment
boardsecurities 28.87 8/2/2013 Outperform 5Y $2.48 +129.84% +46.36% +83.48 0 Comment

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