Central European Distribution (CEDC)

low relative PE, good star & 2010 earnings. Bottom fishing week of 11/2

HT UL fair valuation 41-43$s.

p.s. I hate vodka. So this pick may come back to haunt me.

Toppy...

Two consecutive quarters of negative EPS and a price that has exceeded the book value -- although what does that really mean, anyway? I'm no longer bullish on this stock until it shows stronger EPS. Europe will always want its vodka, though. It's like the Coke of Eastern Europe. The company just needs to tighten up. It has to be a management thing.

The company has a monopoly on the Polish vodka market and a stake in the Russian market. No matter how the economy goes Russians and Polish people with still drink.

Alcohol sales continue to be strong in a down economy.

What a bargain. Buying this in real life and waiting for the money to roll in.

My target for Central European is 23.37. I used my new method for determining a fair P/E (based on G and K). The growth factor was extracted from the PEG found on the web. K was 10%. I hope it works!

Strong company that will have large gains when the world economy picks up.

Its simple. When times get tough people drink and smoke more. Plus stock is trading at 5.5 December 2009 earnings. Check out the article today on the street. I like the swing factor here.

Nice entry point for a great company. Thanks tenmiles. Buying.

Solid company that's been beaten down.

This seemingly unpredictable company is actually a highly predictable seasonal company in disguise. These next two quarters are historically the strongest for the company. This last month has been historically ridiculous as far as stock price goes for this company. Friday, fear drove it down 17%. My opinion is their opinion. They confirmed their previously stated company guidance which is very strong. They are priced as if alcohol is illegal to drink and we are going into a European Prohibition. The technical analysis says it’s oversold and it meets a bullish pattern: “Long Tail Down.” If I was going to make a guarantee about price appreciation, I’d bet it on this company; right now. In fact, here goes nothing. I guarantee this company will outperform the market over the next month and the next year.

Low P/B. Low P/E. Small cap value play with ample room for growth in eastern European markets. My favorite alcohol stock!

I love this stock and decided to start tracking it... with a global recession booze consumption will grow in Eastern Europe.... Its sales and earnings growth rate both check in over 30% today... lets see what those numbers are a few months from now... but today, there are very few companies with a billion market cap checking in with these types of growth numbers

My only big concern is the 6% short position on the stock... i have found historically that short positions over 5% more often than not go down in price.... considering the number of totally bad companies to short today, why would someone put huge dollars in shorting this stock? Just something to think about

over-hyped stock. russian and polish currencies have collapsed since august (see charts). quality of revenues/earnings issues. accounting opacity. underlying business organics don't support financial results.

I guess they stopped drinking booze in Europe.

Grog here.... I look at everything when I investigate stocks... 10Q, 10K, pitches, last 3 month news, most recent all star CAPs rating, industry information, etc.... Here are key points

Industry.... CEDC in food beverage alcohol industry group... this is one of the top 20% industry groups today... people frightened want to get drunk... makes sense... largest cap company in this group is BUD... they make American swill beer and their growth rate low because they as big as a brontosaurus...

but here most important point... there are 13 stock over 100m market cap in this industry group.... CEDC leads all 13 in sales growth, 39%, and earnings growth, 32%.... that impressive in this global warming environment... soon dinosaurs come back

News Items.... read news items from 8/13 to 10/13... everything positive and good

CEDC reaffirms earnings and sales for 2008 and 2009....
Van Kampen fund largest holding
Smartmoney.com 8 stocks poised for rapid growth
Street.com / Jim Cramer thumbs up
Deutsche Bank analyst initiates buy
Added to Nasdaq Q-50 index

wow everything rosy

Finally, two top 50 fools (great satan and down with pumpers) both in last 45 days green thumb stock... that so hard to be top 50 fool

Evidence is clear... many people like stock... and community rate 5 star... this seems like both recession proof and high growth... you can't ask for better

Grog

This stock has been crashing in sympathy with the Russian market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=avnXswSKtm4E

That article is an eye opener. It amazes me the high percentage of stock trades around the world that are done on margin today. It was similar in 1929. In Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, Philip Fisher talks about how most stock transactions were done on margin by rich individuals in the 20's and the markets became gambling pits. By the 50's when the book was written, very few transactions were done on margin and trading volumes were actually LOWER than they had been in decades. The American public began investing in stocks as did institutions for the first time. Now the pendulum has come back the other way and wild speculation took over global markets up until 2007. Now we are seeing the deleveraging process in action with a decline of 66%+ in Shanghai, 50%+ in Russia, and 35%+ in India, the burst of the oil and commodity bubbles, along with the collapse of US financial institutions that bet heavily on the real estate bubble. Maybe, just maybe, the credit crunch can end the era of cheap money and we can enter an era of good, old fashioned investing like in Mr. Fisher's days. But I doubt it.

Anyway, I don't own this company in real life as it has never been cheap enough for me and is no longer a "hidden gem" like it was a few years back. That said, I still admire this company and think they will continue to grow at a solid rate. Even if the Russian and Eastern European economies go into recession, their people will still drink tons of vodka (maybe even more than usual)!