CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF)

CAPS Rating: 5 out of 5

The Company is a manufacturers and distributors of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products in North America.

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Member Avatar nonzerosum (92.56) Submitted: 7/10/2014 4:10:45 PM : Outperform Start Price: $239.46 CF Score: +6.22

I'm getting into defensive positions and fertilizers are one sector I like now because their demand is not correlated with GDP or S&P. CF has good valuation and possibly nice surprises like lower nat gas and higher Ukrainian prices.

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Member Avatar racoveanul (82.68) Submitted: 7/3/2014 1:44:03 PM : Outperform Start Price: $245.42 CF Score: +4.58

I expect at least a point a week from this stock, for the next five years.

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Member Avatar waldhof (50.99) Submitted: 4/12/2014 9:31:42 AM : Outperform Start Price: $233.12 CF Score: +1.83

http://wall-street-for-main-street.blogspot.com/
PE ratio below 10 - for a company with very good return on equity/asset numbers. Not many stocks as reasonably priced as this one currently.

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Member Avatar Reddragyn (69.72) Submitted: 3/30/2014 5:37:49 PM : Outperform Start Price: $257.05 CF Score: -6.06

ModBuff

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Member Avatar bassnman45 (33.31) Submitted: 1/8/2014 10:46:15 AM : Outperform Start Price: $123.63 CF Score: +49.06

we need food

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Member Avatar cachecropp (55.20) Submitted: 11/25/2013 10:03:59 PM : Outperform Start Price: $212.58 CF Score: +10.92

Agriculture company with great valuation.

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Member Avatar HVSTmoon (24.41) Submitted: 8/13/2013 9:47:01 PM : Outperform Start Price: $185.19 CF Score: +21.28

Reverse DCF = -3% Growth on Earnings
Going forward:
Putting 3% growth for next 10 years, and 0% terminal growth, at 12% discount = $275.
About 30% margin of safety.
Seems like a bargain to me. Will analyse the business to understand why is it so low.

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Member Avatar cyclomics (66.89) Submitted: 8/1/2013 12:22:19 PM : Outperform Start Price: $192.97 CF Score: +16.43

Leader in nitrogen fertilizer. "It’s a dirt-cheap company with thick margins. And it’s
benefiting from the biggest commodity trend in the world:
cheap U.S. natural gas."

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Member Avatar 1smallfry (63.14) Submitted: 7/26/2013 11:38:05 PM : Outperform Start Price: $177.66 CF Score: +26.44

Yes

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Member Avatar NovaTodd (79.83) Submitted: 7/26/2013 10:56:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $179.02 CF Score: +25.90

CF Industries trades at a little less than six times FCF once you net out the cash on hand. That's awfully cheap for a company that generates superior returns on invested capital to most of its peers (e.g., POT, MOS and AGU), has grown free cash flow per share at a rate of about 30% over the past five years, and has been using a portion of its excess cash to opportunistically repurchase shares at depressed multiples.

With ~40% of nitrogen fertilizer still imported from overseas, there is room for growth even with additional capacity set to come on-board in North America between 2016 and 2018. CF will benefit from cost advantages vis-a-vis foreign competitors due to the lower costs of production in the US, not to mention lower transportation costs. On the latter point, the company is especially well positioned thanks to its strategically located facilities in the heart of the corn belt. This is also a bet that natural gas prices won't be revisiting the $6+ range again any time soon, although CF is hedged against rising prices.

Bottom line: at less than six times free cash flow, I'm comfortable with the risks here and will be looking for an opportunity to pick up shares in the next few weeks.

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Member Avatar DrLinks (49.99) Submitted: 7/20/2013 2:47:37 AM : Outperform Start Price: $181.41 CF Score: +24.02

Best AG stock for Potash, Nitrogen, and Ammonia. Much better than POT, MOS, MON, and EVEN AGRIUM (AGU), though AGU is also an OUTPERFORM

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Member Avatar Chemdawg (70.54) Submitted: 7/14/2013 10:17:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $181.87 CF Score: +22.69

this fertilizer is Dirt Cheap.......hard to lose money if earnings stay consistent

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Member Avatar MizzouEric (76.72) Submitted: 6/24/2013 10:36:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $174.83 CF Score: +21.35

Undervalued market leader in an emerging niche market. Currently valued at BV + 2x earnings.... Way too cheap

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Member Avatar GrahamJervis (33.38) Submitted: 6/14/2013 11:04:30 AM : Outperform Start Price: $181.62 CF Score: +19.82

cheap and great free cash flow

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Member Avatar Nehams (33.84) Submitted: 5/2/2013 10:38:29 AM : Outperform Start Price: $173.27 CF Score: +19.92

Demand for nitrogen, CF's core product, is relatively inelastic because it is also the most widely applied nutrient. Corn can't do without nitrogen, and the U.S. is all ready for record spring planting this year. Industry leadership, low debt, solid cash flows, great margins -- CF is a complete package. For all the goodness, CF is trading the cheapest among peers at current price. A golden opportunity for Fools. Read more at: http://beta.fool.com/nehams/2013/04/16/call-for-action-this-golden-opportunity-will-slip/30996/

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Member Avatar buffalonate (94.98) Submitted: 4/5/2013 3:48:44 PM : Outperform Start Price: $185.44 CF Score: +10.40

Agriculture stocks are a great place to be for the long-term. The population keeps going up so fertilizer is going to be very important to increase productivity.

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Member Avatar KenMcG6150 (61.49) Submitted: 4/3/2013 2:41:33 PM : Outperform Start Price: $183.32 CF Score: +12.38

CF provides a critical product to a critical industry and is priced below its competitors and the market.

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Member Avatar konradgateau (35.90) Submitted: 3/19/2013 11:40:52 AM : Outperform Start Price: $194.77 CF Score: +3.88

good fundamentals, cheap on EBIT basis, good profitability

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Member Avatar Wifeb123 (76.26) Submitted: 3/1/2013 3:16:53 PM : Underperform Start Price: $197.36 CF Score: +0.11

Limited growth upside due to US farm constraints. Plus corn acreage is at a huge 75 year high.

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Member Avatar marc64 (64.77) Submitted: 3/1/2013 12:41:42 PM : Outperform Start Price: $198.24 CF Score: -0.64

Risk is on farmers who hit big or fold bad depending on weather conditions. Regardless, fertilizers will flow, because the incentive is to produce bigger when there is a decent chance production will crash somewhere.

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