CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF)

charts say up. ! what do I look for? a breakout, within a rising channel.

Everything perfect for them right now, nat gas prices have to reverse course at some stage or production will crater.

Management is generating cash for the owners of this company, and cash returns on investments are very good. Earnings quality is solid (FCF out-pacing NI), and sales and earnings are growing very nicely (earnings is actually growing faster than sales). To top it off, this is selling at an outstanding price right now ($144.98).

Making a fertilizer basket of stocks for a long term play on nutrient depletion in farmland (as Jared Diamond predicted in "Collapse"). They are decently valued with single digit P/Es and have adequate interest coverage. Risks are that war/depression reduce population growth, or cheap inputs (e.g. natural gas) create an excess of supply.

With a low single digit P/E, this is the cheapest the stock has been, on a valuation basis, since the Great Recession.
Loaded with cash. Good ROE & other fundamentals.
Forward P/E: 6.1
2011 expected EPS growth: 162%
2012 expected EPS growth: 2%

The worldwide demand for food and higher food protein is growing at an exponential rate. To meet this demand, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer products are a necessity. Although this industry experiences commodity pricing, CF’s competitive advantages is its access to a reliable and relative inexpensive source of natural gas.

Cash flow from operations has grown by almost 50% over the past four years and the stock price outperformed the S&P by 55% over past five years. At a 5.6 FPE and a FPEG of .32 it seems its priced for disaster.

12/14

Fears of reduction in fertilizer demand seem short-sighted. Need for food isn't going away anytime soon, and despite the potential for short-term cyclical drops, the long-range prospects here look very good. Especially like exposure to 75%-owned Terra Nitrogen.

world population going up.
we need to feed them.
Fertilizer needed to grow food

Agriculture commoidity demand increasing. This fertilizer maker will profit from the long term trend.

if i add some fertilizer to my portfolio will it grow faster? my screens say "yes!"

bent

I think the fertilizer companies are very important holdings for me. I own Potash, but I feel CF is another good one. They recorded net earnings of $6.75 per diluted share, compared to $105.1 million, or $1.54 per diluted share, in the 2010 second quarter. They quadrupled their dividend. Last year, farmers held off on Potash purchases, but you can't just keep delaying fertilizer purchases. If you do, the soil becomes depleted of nutrients and crops yield less. You can put it off just so long. This year, Potash recorded some big numbers which may have been a clue that CF would also do better. Calendar year 2011 looks to be a good one for fertilizer companies. And I think CF is a goog buy today. I entered into my Caps in 2008 at a price of $141.37. If the market isn't moving up after today big Dow rise, I think CF will be my next new stock target for my portfolio. I would like to get it under my caps price, but with record quarters being reported by CF and Potash and may not happen. But that is my target price to add this stock to my portfolio. If I don't get it, I am very happy with Potash.

momentum, recent price break out, 2 of 4 quarters increased earnings, 18% under industry value, 15% under sector value

valueline

Market is taking off right now

Of course now we all want to profit from the coming food shortages, so CF is a logical choice; however, I do admit to being worried about future oversupply due to all the fertilizer being produced on a daily basis by congress. .....

The need for food in this world will only increase with increasing population and with developing nations getting richer. On top of that, good land is now being used to grow corn and sugar for ethanol and soy beans for bio diesel. All that land needs to be fertilized; hence my thumbs up on some of the best-known fertilizer producers.

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