Chelsea Therapeutics International Ltd. (NASDAQ:CHTP)

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Insider Trades, Tailing some fools

If you find yourself offended that I change my opinion on stocks like Chelsea on a regular basis, feel free to read no further. You see, my only goal in the stock market is to buy stocks at a low price and sell them at a higher price, or to short them at a high price and cover at a lower one. The larger the difference between those two prices and the quicker that the stock travels that distance, the happier I am. If Chelsea goes up 10% between Monday and Wednesday and drops 20% between Wednesday and Friday, I want to be long on Monday and short on Wednesday.

The only thing that matters to me is the bottom line. If you make money, you're winning, and if your brokerage account is shrinking, you're losing. It doesn't matter if you made your money on gold, Apple, biotech, or some .PK stock no one ever heard of. There's no extra credit for profiting on a trade on a stock or commodity that has a higher profile. Another thing you don't get extra credit for? Loyalty. Faith in an investment may be a good thing if you have a solid long-term thesis (and a good track record), but in biotech faith is usually unfounded. "I think the phase III trial will be positive" and "I think the FDA will approve this" is not a thesis, it's a gamble. Even the hugest outperformers of recent years such as Dendreon and Human Genomic Sciences eventually got in touch with their inner mediocrity. So chuck your faith out the window and start to buy low and sell high.

The reaction to the CRL for Northera may eventually set up a nice long play on the stock. Regarding Northera itself, the most optimistic view is that the FDA will consider the results from the ongoing study 306 as sufficient confirmation of Northera efficacy. Of course, study 306 has to have a positive result first, which given the inconsistency in prior Northera phase III trials is hardly a foregone conclusion. The real reason for the green thumb is the possibility of a rebound ahead of topline phase II data for antifolate CH-4051 in rheumatoid arthritis, which is expected in June. CH-4051 intended to have similar efficacy to methotrexate in inflammatory conditions with lower toxicity. The potential market for CH-4051 is enormous and interim data from the phase II trial late last year seemed very solid. I've always seen CH-4051 rather than Northera as Chelsea's most viable pathway to profitability.

In real life, I may buy with stabilization below 2.5. Remember, I'm hoping for a run-up in share price ahead of phase II data, and then I can reassess whether there's a play on the data itself. In CAPS of course, I would probably hold my green thumb through the data because of the distorted weighting of points towards low starting picks. Regardless, I want to be out again and possibly short ahead of the Northera study 306B topline data in late Q3.

It will pass

Chelsea has a committee approval by 7-4 recommending FDA approval for Northera. The FDA is voting on or before 3/28 and it is expected to be approved.

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Beaten down for a simple matter... will get back on its feet in few day (target 5,50$)

american pharma

The latest trial studies have proven successful. Plus this drug has been put on the "fast track" in order to get it to market faster.

currently 600 shares in my portfolio.

CHTP's been a darling of mine for about a year; We've seen the initial jump due to the successful NOH results of Droxidopa's recent phase III result RETEST.

A 35 Million dollar share offering at below market on friday was fully subscribed; following what has been an absolutely incredible showing of institutional support for this stock since April.

Chelsea has management of all ex big pharma who left nearly simultaneously to form CHTP. The failed initial NOH was due to a miscalculated endpoint that was subsequently corrected.

What has happened in the meantime is extraordinary; it has been proven without doubt that patients participating in the clinical trials suffering from ADHD AND FIBROMYALGIA, two enormous markets, experienced near total elimination of symptoms...an unbelievable development that one recent article referred to as the potential "blockbuster drug we all dream of". The FDA agreed to such a strong degree they granted Chelsea fasttrack status to both, and now we await the phase II results, whose initial indications point to unbridled success; if true, the potential revenues for this drug are nearly impossible to quantify; several have guessed at PPS's from thirty to eighty and more.

An early indication that this was a slam dunk; the venture capitalist, Venrock, behind a recent (Feb?) revenue deal accepted AT PAR stock...and Venrock isn't dim money; they're all ex Goldman. The fully subscribed sale at 4.90 this past friday saw a volume spike of incredible proportions, and a stock rise as well.

This is a company whose upside is so great it is hard to fathom; but remember this; there has not been an insider sale of this company's stock in over two years. Not one. Institutions, since April, have supported it nearly five to one in buyers to sellers...

Management, liquidity, solid product, incredible upside (they have near global rights), insider and institutional support, and the buy in by perhaps one of the best VCs in the area...

Find me a reason not to love it.

insane upside for Droxidopa, a drug already approved and in therapeutic use in Japan for 17 years. CHTP has all global rights to this drug excluding Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan.
The NOH therapeutic benefit (as per Japan) is in the final stages of a phase III clinical trial. therapeutic benefits for ADHD and Fibromyalgia and Alzheimers...yes, those are all legit...are founded, to the point two of them (ADHD AND FIBRO) are in phase II clinical trials. The company is all ex big Pharma from Roche, is heavily invested in it's own product (zero insider sales in 2 years), and is incredibly valued at a total market cap of a mere 127 Million. For a company with a drug with Droxidopa's approval likelihood and potential upside, this is the most likely multibagger I have personally ever seen.

hop on...it'll head to seven/ten, then if the phase II trials advance to 20-30...and up from there should those ever pan out.

On October 1st the company announced that their Phase III trials of Droxidopa show significant benefits in the treatment of neurogenic orthostatic hypotension. Stock price was up 20% on a day that the S&P 500 was down 2.58%. Recently there has been significant insider purchasing by one 10% owner which increased his holding by 12%. One analyst has set his price target at 3 times the current price. To quote Freddie Prinze from the 1970’s …“Looking good!”

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CH1504 is not a real new drug, chtp just improves it by replacing the acid component which causes some side-effects. The risk is low in getting rejection from FDA. If and when approved CHTP is a $50 stock.

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