Chuy's Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHUY)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

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Member Avatar terrydabear (47.25) Submitted: 1/27/2014 9:41:58 PM : Outperform Start Price: $36.62 CHUY Score: +5.76

If you had eaten here, you'd know what I like about it: a tasty bit of SoCal junkyard with a lot of Tex-Mex choices...good food, great ambiance; really like the chrome wheels covers n' pet pix! These two restaurants I visit are almost always full of patrons. I will be watching this for a
few months...

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Member Avatar Smitter11 (44.15) Submitted: 1/15/2014 11:51:44 PM : Outperform Start Price: $37.34 CHUY Score: +7.11

This chain is just starting to pick up steam and has a solid path to growth through new restaurants in many new markets in the next 5 years.

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Member Avatar NFender (99.41) Submitted: 12/24/2013 2:51:17 PM : Outperform Start Price: $35.84 CHUY Score: +11.12

Highly speculative . . . if they can continue opening new locations at 20% annually for 3-4 more years they can get margins in line. Fast-casual Mexican food is getting pretty crowded, though.

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Member Avatar Sicb (< 20) Submitted: 10/10/2013 2:10:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $37.31 CHUY Score: -2.46

Chuy’s Holdings, Inc. (Chuy’s) is a full-service restaurant concept offering a distinct menu of authentic, freshly-prepared Mexican and Tex Mex inspired food. Consumables are a staple...

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Member Avatar TMFInnovator (36.69) Submitted: 8/19/2013 10:35:31 AM : Outperform Start Price: $36.06 CHUY Score: -0.13

A great restaurant concept from my home state of Texas.

- Superior unit-level economies to other restaurant chains. 30%+ growth in both store count and overall revenue towers above BJRI and BWLD. Per-restaurant volume of $4.9 million/yr is also much better than peers.

- The average check of $13 is still cheaper than most other casual diners. I noticed that the average check had a 19% alcohol mix. Alcohol has much higher margins than food, which could be a key to their best-in-class profitability. Chuy's 22.5% margin is 4-5% greater than peers. And trust me, the margaritas are worth it. =)

- Plenty of opportunity for growth. Chuy's only has 43 restaurants as of May and plans to open 9-10 per year.

- 40% Cash-on-Cash return allows for an extremely short payback period.

Here is a link where I've shared their Company Presentation: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B2XLuWVE3QivMlBoTEhoNmRDVkE/edit?usp=sharing
Also, here is a link to their Q2'13 Conference call: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1611742-chuys-holdings-ceo-discusses-q2-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo

Chuy's food is great (/addicting), they are growing quickly, and management is motivated. Their comparable restaurant sales are low (~2%), but still better than the overall industry. And Chuy's valuation doesn't exactly make them cheap, but I think they can grow into it.

Outperform.

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Member Avatar rknapton (< 20) Submitted: 8/6/2013 7:26:05 PM : Outperform Start Price: $39.80 CHUY Score: -8.58

Long. Potentially a super-performer. 42 Chuy’s Mexican (Tex Mex) restaurants. Revs up 24%. $172M, $130M, $94M. (years 2012,2011,2010). # of stores (each year going back) (43,39,31,23,17…) “If you’ve seen one Chuy’s, you’ve seen one Chuy’s!” 5 year target to open 59 to 64 new stores. Targets 1%-1.5% same store sales growth.

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Member Avatar yhkpenguin (< 20) Submitted: 6/10/2013 7:39:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $32.89 CHUY Score: +7.62

Purely going by my trusting TMF1000 and the folks on the Cloning board. :-) Silly? I am seriously considering a position just based on that.

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Member Avatar TMF1000 (99.77) Submitted: 5/28/2013 11:22:23 AM : Outperform Start Price: $34.05 CHUY Score: +7.30

Entered in on caps at $34.05, the PE ratio is 65.48 - so its expensive. I purchased a small position anyway to get some skin in the game of what could be a large concept someday.

Chuy was founded in 1982. That was about the time many of the greatest growth chains in the U.S were started. Applebees was started in 1980 and today has about 2000 restaurants. Outback Steakhouse started in 1988 and has about 700 restaurants. Cheesecake Factory was started in 1978 and has grown very slowly but they have 174 restaurants. Of course there is Chipotle that started in 1993 and has over 1400 restaurants. So what is happening that Chuy’s only has only 41 restaurants after 31 years of operations? I don’t know.

But they seem to be picking up steam. They opened 9 restaurants since last year which is up 28%. If they can keep that type of growth going profitably than this concept could be big. They are a moderately priced restaurant with an average check of $13.34 Since 2010, they have bumped up the speed at which they are opening restaurants.

They have debt $5 million in debt and $5.3 million in cash. I prefer young concepts to have zero debt. It proves they can grow via cash flow. So far they have generated negative cash flow. They went public July 24, 2012 – it closed the day at $15.06.

They do have a few signature sauces which might be interesting.

We don't want to be Chili's," Chuy's CEO Steve Hislop told the Austin American-Statesman. "We don't want to be [TGI] Friday's. We don't want to be one of the restaurants that look the same. I don't want to be thought of as a growth company or a chain."

Well I actually want to think of you as a growth stock that is why I am investing in the concept. So I am hoping he meant he doesn’t what Chuy’s to become mundane or ordinary. Their sales are growing well, but my confidence would get a boost if cash flow went positive. Their cash flow isn’t too much in the red.

Last week I purchased a few shares to get some skin in the game. They said they don’t want to be like Chili’s, but Chile’s opened in 1975 has 1400 restaurants, so I would like them to be something like Chili’s. hehehe

Short track record – so it bears some monitoring.

February 25, 2013 4Q:2012 earnings’ highlights:
** Revenue was $46.7 million up 46.7% from $33.3 million
** Fiscal 2012 revenue was $172.64 million up from $130.583 million
** TTM revenue per share was $10.31
** 4Q earnings were $0.05 up from $0.00
** Fiscal 2012 earnings were $0.37 up from $0.20
** Diluted share count 16.737 million up from 10.869 million
** Same store sales were up 5.2% or 3% excluding impact of the extra 1.5 operating days in 2012 because of the timing of the Christmas holiday.
** Opened one new restaurant in the fourth quarter: total 40 restaurants.
** Cash $5.855 million: debt $5 million
** Cash flow for the year negative ($2.31 million)
** Trading range from February 25, 2013 and May 6, 2013 was $25.62 to $34.98: PE ratio range was 69.24 to 94.54: PS ratio range was 2.49 to 3.39: Cash flow range NA

May 6, 2013 1Q:2013 earnings’ highlights:
** Revenue was $46.698 million up 24.6% from $37.476 million
** TTM revenue was $181.86 million or $10.97 per share
** Earnings were $0.16 up from $0.01
** TTM earnings were $0.52 per share
** Diluted share count 16.577 million
** Cash $3.096 million: debt $5 million
** Cash flow for the quarter was negative ($3.573 million) up from negative ($3.61 million)
** TTM cash flow was negative ($2.273 million)
** Trading range between May 6, 2013 and the present May 28, 2013 was $29.28 to $35.63: PE ratio range was 56.3 to 68.52: PS ratio range was 2.67 to 3.25

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Member Avatar TMFserjing (51.92) Submitted: 5/28/2013 11:06:08 AM : Outperform Start Price: $34.50 CHUY Score: +5.61

Because TMF1000 says so!

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Member Avatar CallaHummel (36.26) Submitted: 2/18/2013 6:33:11 PM : Underperform Start Price: $28.29 CHUY Score: -20.55

Chipotle is cheaper and better than Chuy's for both consumers and investors. With that competition, Chuy won't grow into its current valuation.

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Member Avatar GundersonGroup (29.25) Submitted: 10/17/2012 10:51:04 AM : Underperform Start Price: $24.06 CHUY Score: -39.99

Over 75% of the IPO proceeds went to owners that are cashing out of this company. This offering is not about a legitimate company but about hustling ignorant investors.

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Member Avatar CPHookEm (< 20) Submitted: 8/31/2012 1:07:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $20.81 CHUY Score: +61.84

Great food, Great price, Always crowded. Need I say more.

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Member Avatar bzhayes (98.91) Submitted: 8/15/2012 1:00:50 PM : Underperform Start Price: $18.74 CHUY Score: -83.08

Zombie IPO with negative book value and negative free cash flow: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/08/14/attack-of-the-zombie-ipo.aspx?source=itxsitmot0000001&lidx=3

Where do you think your money is going?

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Member Avatar TheNightFool (< 20) Submitted: 8/9/2012 3:59:42 PM : Outperform Start Price: $19.37 CHUY Score: +76.05

Being from Texas I have been to many locations of this restraunt, and this restraunt chain packs customers in every night. Add to that they are expanding across the southern US, and have had consistant and growing revenues and net income.Outperform

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Member Avatar bclear2 (< 20) Submitted: 8/2/2012 5:15:26 AM : Outperform Start Price: $17.35 CHUY Score: +96.37

Austin original, my favorite restaurant, buy what you love

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Member Avatar FreeFlyingFool (97.03) Submitted: 7/25/2012 6:29:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $17.34 CHUY Score: +95.85

I've been eating at Chuy's for a long time now. Their brand of high quality tex mex has appeal far beyond Texas, and they should be able to triple their restaurant count without too much trouble. The IPO paid off a lot of debt, which will free up a fair bit of cash for future expansion.

Despite my optimism, there are three cautions here:
1) A private equity firm holds more than 50% of the stock but is locked out from selling for the first 180 days. Will they cash out after that?
2) Rising ingredient costs may put the squeeze on profitability, slowing expansion.
3) They've taken on a fair bit of debt in the past (which they paid off with IPO cash). Will they fund expansion from growth going forward, or lever up?

All that said, I'm optimistic about the business.

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