Collectors Universe, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLCT)

Collector's Universe (CLCT) provides authentication and grading services for rare and modern coins, trading cards, and autographed memorabilia. The company's experts examine and assign a grade to items ("PCGS" for coins, "PSA" for trading cards, and "PSA/DNA" for autographs). This grade allows the item to be sold or auctioned with its authenticity and quality assured by professional and respected experts - allowing even on-line, "site unseen" transactions to be executed with confidence. In return, Collector's Universe receives a fee for their services. In 2012, the average fee per item was $11.64, although fees can range from $5 to $600 depending on the type of item and the turnaround time required by the customer.
Last year, roughly 60% of CLCT's graded items were coins, 30% were trading cards (mostly baseball cards), and 10% were autographed memorabilia. Coins alone account for 66% of revenue.

The company has handled some pretty cool items, ranging from Mark McGwire's 70th home run ball, to Babe Ruth's bat used to hit the first home run at (old) Yankee Stadium, to a 1794 Flowing Hair Silver Dollar, which sold for a record $7.9 million at auction!

Certainly there are some intriguing investment aspects of this tiny ($90 million) company. First, this is a pure niche play, something I love in mini-cap stocks. Collectibles authentication is a very small market - CLCT faces no more than 1 or 2 competitors in each of its 3 item categories. Additionally, its grade marks are widely recognized and accepted as trusted and consistent brands. Finally, there are some barriers to entry here, as experienced graders are in short supply. Overall, I would characterize competitive advantages as better-than-average, especially for such a small firm.

There is some growth potential. CLCT is expanding operations into Asia, aiming to grade Asian collectibles, primarily coins. The company attended its first Asian trade show in Hong Kong this past year. E-commerce solutions, primarily the management of Certified Coin Exchange, an online trading and information portal for collectibles, is another initiative.

Financial performance has also been strong. Since (now former) CEO Mike McConnell took over in 2009, CLCT's margins improved from under 10% to nearly 20%, on top of steady 10% compound annual increases in revenue from 2010-12. This led to a more-than-tripling of operating profits. Free cash flows have scaled closely along. The balance sheet is a rock, with over $20 million in cash and no debt.

All of this makes the stock's primary attraction - a 11.3% dividend yield - a good proposition. This yield does strain free cash flows, representing a 100% payout ratio. As a result, I don't expect it to be raised soon, but the balance sheet gives enough support to prevent it from being cut, also.

At present, the stock is selling at a EBIT/EV earnings yield of 12.5%, far above its five year average of 8.5%. What gives?

A few things. First and foremost, modern coin submissions - about a quarter of revenue - have been dropping precipitously for the past 2 quarters. They dropped 31% in Q4 (ended June), and preliminary Q1 results indicate another 11% year-over-year drop in revenue. These drops strain the firm's mostly fixed cost structure, eating into margins. Collectibles volume, including modern coins, is dependent on overall economic strength, as well as ebbs and flows in interest. If this weakness continues, CLCT could see operating income fall 30% in fiscal 2013.

The second headline risk is management turnover. The company recently hired new CEO Bob Deuster. He has no particular experience in the field of collectibles, although he was successful during a CEO stint at Newport (NEWP). We have little idea as of yet how well Deuster will fit into the role.

MagicDiligence's opinion on Collector's Universe is a bit nuanced. I believe it makes a decent choice, especially for income investors. The 11% yield should be stable. Coin volumes will always be lumpy, and the company has already moved to cut some cost to protect margins. Revenue performance will largely be a function of U.S. economic confidence, although the Asian initiative could show some legs, especially if Deuster goes after it hard.

On the other hand, my model shows that the company is likely only worth something in the $12-15 range. While that does represent some upside from current, mid-$11 prices, it is not a substantial margin of safety. While I'll give it the "positive" rating, there still look like other opportunities with more upside in the Magic Formula® screens, at present.

What a dividend. Might as well make some money in my hobby.

High quarterly dividend of 9.5%

Well what is anything worth nowadays!

TMF1000

Great FCF yield!

Caps starting price $14.34:

I have watched this company for a long time with great interest. It is a very small cap company - a market cap of about $112 million. It is small. Earnings had some one-time charges and they discontinued part of their business so Net income is down from last year. However, Cash flow was up from last year which is important since they pay a $1.30 per year in dividends which gives them a 9.1% yield.

Now I am sure you are thinking well that dividend is going to be dropped or lowered. And they may lower it. But their financials are solid. Last year, they paid out $9.944 million in dividends and made $9.808 million in cash flow. They have no debt and $21.926 million in cash. But if they wanted to lower the dividend even by 50%, it would still be a solid dividend yield which they could easily afford.

There are problems – They are dependent on the economy. Their growth is suspect, but they should be able to pay a strong dividend. There are no analysts following the company, so one has to piece together the history of the company.
I believe they provide a very important service to the collectible industry. I think this little company may help me monitor a key piece of macro information.

I know there are others that have CLCT on caps. I will be writing a full page report on them in time. This one highly interests me for many reasons

The stock in cheap with a great yield. It has momentum and it will carry especially into 2012.

Good fundamentals

Great business model.

Good div, well-covered, current>1

High, very well covered yield. With the major rise in silver and gold there will be a huge increase in coin sales. CLCT should see a dramatic rise in revenue and will return this to shareholders with dividend boosts. They can already afford to do it, but are being conservative with thier cash position.

mfi

Nothing fancy here. As a former card collector, the PSA grading system is the most trusted. What's more, in the card world it becomes hard to buy/sell cards without a grading system to objectify a gut feeling about the condition of the card. Now they are in the coin business too. And 8% dividend yield.

great growth play with nice dividend.

Great hard asset inflation play. Great dividend. No debt. Could be a sleeper.

What farmerellis said.

PEG is 3.45.

Please. Collectors Universe? This thing is gonna' tank, big time. The definition of irrational exuberance.

CLCT relies heavily on only a small handful of clients to generate the vast majority of their revenue. Losing any one of these clients would have a far reaching affect on the company's bottom line. The diamond grading business could also prove to be a difficult path of acquiring clients, as the diamond industry would have to ultimately accept them as a market standard. Unlike dealers of coins or baseball cards, gemologists are generally highly trained and certified experts and may not take to the idea of someone else meddling in their job.

Contributing to a possible downfall is the fact that PSA, their card grading division, recently received publicity as the imfamous Honus Wagner baseball card they had authenticed and graded was sold for $2.35M. However, a book ("The Card" by Michael O'keeffe) is set for release in May 2007 which will be exposing the fact that the $2.35M Wagner is nothing more than a reprint created in the 1950's, and is altered on top of that. Depending on the fallout, PSA could face a tremendous amount of negative publicity and/or face a costly legal case.

5-star $115 million market cap on 11/4/06
Services for collectors.
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