Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)

chk2595 (40.38) Submitted: 11/3/2009 1:45:28 PM : Start Price: $11.73 CLNE Score: +4.16

This stock and industry are going to depend on government support. They are heavy on hope and handouts and very lite on producing very much electricity. This is A Nancy Pelosi favorite but it future in a viable producer and profit center is off in the future.

OldEnglish (27.62) Submitted: 3/30/2009 9:21:18 AM : Start Price: $6.30 CLNE Score: -49.80

Green energy will be the least of America's concerns after four or five years of double digit unemployment.

Catt99 (55.36) Submitted: 2/11/2009 12:07:24 AM : Start Price: $6.58 CLNE Score: -57.65

Surprised by the esteem with which CLNE is held at CAPS. Pickens and Pelosi and "clean energy" plays understood. But mgmt is gambling big with government subsidy business model. Really needs lots of cash to continue to grow and the stock price is dependent on rapid growth - I don't believe the actual growth prospects map to growth expectations that bulls assign to the company.

CLNE's last capital raise involved tremendous dilution to investors, and that was before the crashes of late 2008 and their impact on businesses seeking capital. CLNE needs to raise cash in the very near term (or not grow and become a business valued an order magnitude below its curent market cap), and I expect, if CLNE is able to raise cash, it will be at a tremendously dilutive cost to current investors (with another unit offering consisting of shares at a discount to market and warrants with significant price protection). Huge current overhang of stock-equivalnets if the stock recovers significantly; I believe that overhang will be materially increased in the next capital raise.

But the board and mgmt are very well paid (equity and cash)! Particualrly Pickens who gets large equity grants for service ('cause his majority ownership interest apparently doesn't provide enough incentive to devote attention to the business). I believe serious pain for current shareholders looms.

Disclosure: No current real money position, but I keep looking for opportunities to take an effective short position. Neither shorting outright nor option plays present themselves to those unwilling to take on very significant positions and risk, and to commit significant capital.

BSHumphreyII (89.48) Submitted: 1/19/2009 1:00:44 PM : Start Price: $6.62 CLNE Score: -47.25

CLNE hasn't posted a quarterly profit in three years, so any investment here is purely speculative. The two theses I can see for speculating in this stock is a recovery in oil prices or spending by the new administration. Neither thesis is a terribly good reason to buy this stock.

A recovery in the price of oil, which I do think is likely, will help this stock eventually, but CLNE will lag behind the companies that actually directly profit from increased oil prices. In other words, if you want to bet on a bull market in oil, buy an oil stock! Better yet, since CLNE is a bet on demand for natural gas, buy a company with good gas exposure, like XTO or COP, both of which are on sale right now.

If you're betting on government money, good luck, because you're gambling. There's no way of telling just what company will profit. Congress doles out money in a completely arbitrary and capricious manner that follows no real economic principal. Trying to game what 535 people cloistered in Washington feel like throwing money at is a good way to lose your money. If you really want to play with that, place a "field bet" by buying a larger company with a bigger exposure to the things Congress will likely be spending our money on.

Finally, even CLNE does profit from government largess, it will be quite some time before this stock feels it. Do yourself a favor and buy a company that's actually making money. There are plenty that are dirt cheap right now.

georgialax (85.52) Submitted: 10/24/2008 10:22:00 AM : Start Price: $10.14 CLNE Score: +14.01

If you are betting on this company you are making a bet on "big government". CLNE can't turn a profit without massive government handouts, land grabs, and regulations. Look at the contracts that the company has gotten so far. By and large they are all government contracts. What does this mean? Well it means that if you are a business with a big heart and limitless funds you can invest in Natural Gas vehicles. Only government (which doesn't have to worry about proftis) can buy into something that has no economic return value. There has been no value for private companies to buy into the technology because it doesn't increase financial returns. The public is in no mood for any new company government subsidies at a time that oil is plummeting and the new technologies are unproven. Pickens is a man that is in business for himself and himself only, not his stockholders. His commercials are a sham. He pretends to be in business to help the country when we all know that is entire life has revolved around building up the countries and industry which he now pretends to be against. If he doesn't get the government subsidies he needs he will high take himself, and his investments right out of the company before any investors know what hit them. CLNE is leveraged on Natural Gas technologies, and wind farms. Windfarms?? Windfarms cost more to produce than they ever produce in actual energy. Everybody wants them as long as they don't have to ever see them. Natural gas is competing with electric cars, hydrogen technology, ethanol, etc... Will they win? Depends on government subsidies. I would never make an investment that is dependent on government involvement in ANYTHING. He is pressuring the government very hard with his repetitive commercials, and hounding to give him taxpayer money to fund his investment. He is a billionaire. If he believes in his company he should put his money in it. Not mine. Capatalism means surviving or failing on your own without the government. Just reading a headline that mentions CLNE as "a Hot Stock" tells you you should probably sell it. If your veternarian is telling you to buy CLNE it is time to sell, sell, sell...

arm847 (31.34) Submitted: 11/13/2007 10:47:07 PM : Start Price: $18.37 CLNE Score: +12.71

These fellas are a proxy for a CNG hedge operation. They make or lose money based on their ability to buy NG contracts at less vs. the price they will sell at in their supported outlets. While they may grow, they face the exact same profitability issues that any gas station operator would- can futures contracts be managed profitability. I choose to say the expertise provided by even Boone Pickens (on the board) isn't sufficient to eliminate risk from this play, and the company has seen the big, negative impacts from the negative swings the market can impose- evaporating 50% of their working capital would be my best guess.