Clovis Oncology (NASDAQ:CLVS)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

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Member Avatar LifeScientist (22.47) Submitted: 2/17/2016 3:19:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $19.78 CLVS Score: -36.79

technical near term bottom and nice upside two day trend; no insider selling of late since the drop last Nov. ( however no buying reported for 12 mos. ) top fools ZZlangerhaus and Seth15701 like it and former had a reasonable analysis .... Note, due to announce on Feb 25, so have to decide whether to hold it through earnings, but street's got a good negative expect of cash burn. Credit Suisse has picked it up with an analysis and an outperform since the Nov price drop.

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.78) Submitted: 2/16/2016 8:32:13 AM : Outperform Start Price: $19.67 CLVS Score: -38.69

Clovis isn't exactly flying under the radar ahead of the rociletinib Ad Comm on April 12. There's lots of commentary on the drug's prospects for approval, most of it negative. Of course, the shocking aspect of the whole situation was the blase way in which management downgraded the pivotal data from definitely approvable and highly competitive to questionably approvable and highly uncompetitive with AZ's Tagrisso. It's a solid reminder that "derisked" is always a relative term for biopharma stocks. It's also a reminder that trial design and semantics matter - those who carefully parsed Clovis's initial rosy press releases and recognized that the strength of the data could change in the future were definitely the winners here.

Zzporte currently has a tiny 80 share position that is underwater from 32. Clovis's share price has lost substantial ground even after what seemed a dizzying plunge in November. Thanks to a strong offering in July, Clovis had over 600M in cash at the end of Q3 2015. Of course, there is almost 300M in debt and a huge cash burn last quarter of 100M. If the Ad Comm treats rociletinib harshly, Clovis's ace in the hole is poly ADP-ribose polymerase inhibitor rucaparib, which has performed well in pivotal trials and will be submitted for FDA approval next quarter. Is the rucaparib data that Clovis has released "mature", or can we expect more nasty surprises? Hard to say.

It's hard for me to justify adding to our Clovis position now given the uncertainty of the approaching Ad Comm and the unwillingness of the street to give any benefit of the doubt ahead of catalysts. I think the sweet spot for Clovis might come with a decline into the single digits after nasty FDA briefing docs and a negative Ad Comm vote, ahead of the rucaparib NDA submission. There's precedent for this with Clovis: the recent journey to a share price over 100 followed a drop down to 11 after the blow-up of the original lead drug. Perhaps history will repeat itself with rociletinib and rucaparib. Of course, given the current state of pessimism in the sector, this could be yet another of those rosy theories that ends up going nowhere.

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Member Avatar LMNOPQRStallion (56.00) Submitted: 9/16/2015 12:17:14 AM : Outperform Start Price: $92.75 CLVS Score: -82.37

CLVS is officially in beast mode! Rociletinib positioned well for FDA-approval/robust launch, and rucaparib not far behind looking like best-in-class PARP inhibitor.

As of 15 Sep 2015 market close, $4.0 bin cap still significantly undervalued short-term. Call $5.5 Bln cap by EOY 2015.

$10-15 Bln cap can easily be rationalized as buyout target in near future, anything less would be a steal... if no BO cap grows much higher than this range long-term.

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Member Avatar TMFTypeoh (77.56) Submitted: 9/9/2015 12:38:41 PM : Outperform Start Price: $115.45 CLVS Score: -93.38

Winners keep on winning. I'm bullish even after today's monster move.

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Member Avatar 1russianguy (46.23) Submitted: 8/20/2015 3:29:53 PM : Outperform Start Price: $71.78 CLVS Score: -82.90

Playing for a bounce from a correction.

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Member Avatar navychop2 (30.42) Submitted: 6/11/2014 8:45:02 PM : Underperform Start Price: $43.34 CLVS Score: +73.91

Negative side affects to it's primary experimental cancer drug, burning through cash, can't find a buyer

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Member Avatar getrichdietrying (82.00) Submitted: 9/25/2013 1:59:53 PM : Underperform Start Price: $63.92 CLVS Score: +100.10

Buyers are not interested at unjustified market cap valuation. sell and take the profits a great short sell now.

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Member Avatar TMFBiologyFool (91.92) Submitted: 9/18/2013 7:00:29 PM : Underperform Start Price: $74.20 CLVS Score: +100.16

Pipeline doesn't justify $2.2 billion valuation.

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Member Avatar HoldThatWinner (31.87) Submitted: 6/5/2013 12:12:51 PM : Outperform Start Price: $65.32 CLVS Score: -106.03

$100 Target

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Member Avatar IBDContrarian (50.01) Submitted: 4/6/2013 1:49:18 PM : Underperform Start Price: $29.05 CLVS Score: +85.00

IBD EPS, RS, SPROE, Acc ratings plus P/E and div yield
MEDICAL 5 95 -B+ NO EARN

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