Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

A fast-casual restaurant chain, Chipotle Mexican Grill focuses on fresh and organic ingredients, tempting diners with gigantic burritos, salads, and more.

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Member Avatar Merlinsmoney (85.94) Submitted: 7/31/2015 2:27:20 PM : Outperform Start Price: $743.47 CMG Score: +0.97

Well- run company.

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Member Avatar discokinged (89.45) Submitted: 7/14/2015 12:22:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $657.95 CMG Score: +14.11

Great growth company - rightly a Motley Fool favourite.

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Member Avatar ChuckerDee (< 20) Submitted: 7/8/2015 1:02:54 PM : Outperform Start Price: $619.56 CMG Score: +18.54

Lots of room for more restaurants in the US and overseas. Also, management has a greater recipe for success in the food industry, look for the emergence of other brands.

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Member Avatar Lawrence56 (< 20) Submitted: 7/7/2015 7:58:33 PM : Outperform Start Price: $619.40 CMG Score: +19.97

Expanding into more food categories

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Member Avatar dstwhit (84.15) Submitted: 6/24/2015 11:39:01 AM : Outperform Start Price: $612.20 CMG Score: +23.10

strong leadership; sa/rb/tom e.; new concepts; strong culture and employee dev't
concerns: p/e=40 (but always pretty high); will new concepts (shophouse and pizza) grow well?;

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Member Avatar ShowMeTheMoat (90.08) Submitted: 6/22/2015 10:28:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $621.35 CMG Score: +21.56

PE around 40.5 represents a good (not great) entry point considering such a long runway for growth and highest ROIC in the industry. Each new restaurant costs only $800K and they can earn that in less than 2 years per store. This helps them grow their foot print at a pace they choose. Very profitable business.

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Member Avatar cahhorn (< 20) Submitted: 6/15/2015 4:58:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $602.41 CMG Score: +23.82

Chipotle's food meets an emerging demand for quick service food that is better than you typical burger and fries. Our family doesn't eat any other fast food regularly but hits up a Chipotle at least once a week. Every time we go, there is a line of people excited to hand over money for a delicious burrito.

Going forward, hopefully Chipotle will continue to open new stores in the US and Europe.

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Member Avatar redhead77 (< 20) Submitted: 6/15/2015 1:48:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $604.03 CMG Score: +23.47

I eat there often, I've owned this for a long, lovely ride and I'm not getting off this horse. The food's good, management has their head on straight and owning their own locations (no franchising) means I get to keep the upside there too.

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Member Avatar jdkosmicki (29.41) Submitted: 6/10/2015 5:09:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $612.00 CMG Score: +23.25

A very strong balance sheet that should allow chipotle to keep opening new restaurants and selling burritos. A fairly valued PEG at 1.6. Even if same store sales slow they should be able to maintain solid EPS growth. Wouldn't be surprised if it trades at $900 in 3 or four years.

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Member Avatar TMFInnovator (74.89) Submitted: 6/5/2015 4:21:15 PM : Outperform Start Price: $611.93 CMG Score: +22.22

http://newsletters.fool.com/30/coverage/alerts/2015/03/31/buy-chipotle-mexican-grill.aspx

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Member Avatar huddaman (99.34) Submitted: 5/29/2015 4:15:01 PM : Outperform Start Price: $617.12 CMG Score: +22.19

It is selling at 40x trailing 12M EPS. In aug-2014, at $683, the trailing 12M PE was 60x.

The MAJOR risk here in the short term is, PE can shrink further. Apart from that, they may not be able to grow their store base without cannibalizing the business.

What is impressive is they grew revenue per store to $2.5 million from around $2 million in 2012. In 3 years they grew their store base from approx 1200 to 1783 (50% rise) without cannibalization (instead quite the opposite). That shows the power of Chipotle.

Because of unit growth we can expect 12% revenue and atleast the same EPS growth per year. We can expect higher EPS growth because they only need 800K per new store, so a lot of their cash flow is free to be re-deployed for buyback or dividends. That can augment the return to 15% per year. If they can do that for the next 5-10 years, this might become a solid market beater. Another reason they can grow EPS faster is, they can improve their net margins further as they have more stores and G&A expenses shouldn't rise as fast as the revenue into the future.

I would really prefer if this were selling for only 30x or 25x, but that's very rare for CMG. In Nov-2012 at $282, the 12M trailing PE was only 30x. What a bargain for anyone who bought back then! S&P400's PE in 2012 was around 14 versus 18 today. By that token, today's PE is not unreasonable. But we cannot expect to see 25% increase in revenue per store yet again in the next 3 years, so next 3 years won't be as remarkable as the last 3. Also, S&P500 PE could itself shrink by 2018, and if that happens, all stocks will see multiple compression including CMG.

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Member Avatar MattM (77.76) Submitted: 5/28/2015 10:21:33 PM : Outperform Start Price: $628.00 CMG Score: +20.38

This has the makings of a 100 billion dollar company. Not sure when, but some day.

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Member Avatar wsualum95 (46.69) Submitted: 5/26/2015 6:30:30 PM : Outperform Start Price: $623.16 CMG Score: +20.78

Stock pulled back significantly this last quarter. However, they continue to open new stores and there's always a line.

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Member Avatar AutoDelivery (67.92) Submitted: 5/21/2015 12:49:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $629.66 CMG Score: +20.56

Sure, just fast...

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Member Avatar magconpres (55.98) Submitted: 5/19/2015 11:25:06 PM : Outperform Start Price: $632.93 CMG Score: +19.81

Lots of cash and there's always a line.

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Member Avatar jdbow (68.01) Submitted: 5/19/2015 9:55:17 AM : Outperform Start Price: $634.85 CMG Score: +19.42

Subway & CMG are the only restaurants I never get tired of.
I'm looking forward to trying their pizza.

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Member Avatar txlonghorn (85.20) Submitted: 5/18/2015 5:50:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $632.49 CMG Score: +19.88

Popular model of food preparation in the upscale fast food segment, with the potential to translate burrito success into other food styles.

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Member Avatar RedbirdNation (< 20) Submitted: 5/16/2015 11:01:02 AM : Outperform Start Price: $632.56 CMG Score: +19.46

Amazingly well run company with a strong, loyal customer base. Every location I go to is always busy. Recent sell-off is an over reaction to a moderate slow down in comps. Still plenty of room to run for this company, plus they will start expanding Shop House and Pizzaria Locale at some point.

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Member Avatar andrewtraylor (81.76) Submitted: 5/14/2015 12:54:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $637.21 CMG Score: +18.45

High Valuation? Good that means they're growing!

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Member Avatar weasel7 (79.45) Submitted: 5/11/2015 5:48:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $630.50 CMG Score: +18.61

Lots of room for expansion in US. Has not even hardly begun overseas.

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