Conatus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:CNAT)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

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Member Avatar pchop12316 (64.99) Submitted: 4/20/2016 10:25:21 AM : Underperform Start Price: $2.76 CNAT Score: +0.56

pessimistic

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.78) Submitted: 4/1/2016 11:54:51 AM : Underperform Start Price: $2.11 CNAT Score: -27.95

It's always fun to belly flop onto a rising knife in CAPS. When I go deep into the red, I can always tap over at look at my real brokerage account instead. That's usually doing better, if not always. I've become better over the years at using CAPS to mark stocks for future trades, rather than trying to accumulate points as an end in itself.

Right now Conatus could be rising for one of three reasons. First, the company is expecting six month data from their phase II trial of emricasan for cirrhosis this quarter. Three month data was released in January, so it's not unreasonable to expect six month data in April. The three month data release induced an immediate price spike due to the positive language in the headline, followed by a rapid and severe decline once people realized there was no significant clinical improvement shown. Therefore, when the six month PR comes out it will be very important to read it carefully right away. These are the situations that bring profit. The second possible reason is the upcoming Ad Comm for Intercept's OCA for primary biliary cirrhosis on April 7. The NASH/cirrhosis stocks have shown a tendency to run hand-in-hand despite the fact they propose to compete with each other. The third reason, as usual, is simple manipulation using these other catalysts as a cover.

Either way, Conatus and emricasan haven't shown much sign of being likely players on the future landscape of liver disease treatment. Ultimately this kind of run will end with a clinical failure, likely preceded by an ugly dilutive financing.

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Member Avatar oscillation (38.53) Submitted: 1/16/2016 11:28:48 AM : Outperform Start Price: $1.70 CNAT Score: +50.52

nev

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Member Avatar Hendrickson71 (< 20) Submitted: 9/25/2015 11:31:29 AM : Outperform Start Price: $5.76 CNAT Score: -59.77

still has a target price of $14

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Member Avatar km00nster (< 20) Submitted: 3/26/2015 3:05:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.89 CNAT Score: -61.91

Excellent news today! Should hit 12 dollars by the end of the year.

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Member Avatar joienpaix (< 20) Submitted: 3/13/2015 4:39:05 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.69 CNAT Score: -52.81

jeepdrew2 TP 8

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Member Avatar OKwarrior (24.04) Submitted: 11/9/2014 5:37:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.89 CNAT Score: -62.78

small biopharma company specializing in development of drugs for liver disease (think Gilead). They have ongoing trials for 5 different diseases, NASH, acute on chronic liver failure, portal hypertension, post transplant liver fibrosis w. clearance of Hep C

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Member Avatar aki92656 (44.99) Submitted: 3/31/2014 4:10:53 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.05 CNAT Score: -77.57

20140331 started at 8.20

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Member Avatar usubanas (99.74) Submitted: 3/25/2014 3:29:16 PM : Outperform Start Price: $9.35 CNAT Score: -82.55

Phase 2 NAFLD/NASH trial results expected 2nd half 2014. At 145M, great risk reward.

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Member Avatar sinvestor (65.16) Submitted: 1/14/2014 6:36:43 AM : Underperform Start Price: $12.16 CNAT Score: +91.73

Really???

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