Cinemark Holdings, Inc. (CNK)

last12 (< 20) Submitted: 6/29/2009 6:00:03 PM : Start Price: $10.96 CNK Score: -5.54

there seems to be a good lists of product coming out and helps a bit with 3D movies coming up as well. people are not shying away from the movies considering their economical status.

ALPHADividend (92.06) Submitted: 4/16/2009 1:33:06 AM : Start Price: $9.79 CNK Score: +2.00

This company was individually screened to verify that during the boom years ('04-'08), their Balance Sheet expansion appeared excessive or at the very least aggressive. At some point or another, something's gotta give with this company. Income will start collapsing due to debt levels, and/or dividends will be slashed or removed, and/or significant losses will be realized. The chances of this being a growth company or having significant growth is heavily muted due to its dividend paying obligations at the current levels of today.
This company was personally found after using a screener. The screener yielded many companies that often relate to the energy/commodity industry, or FIRE (financial insurance real estate).

google screener options:
Market cap over 400M
Dividend yield over 2%
1 Year price change better than -35%
price to book 0.9 or higher
total debt/assets (recent qtr) greater than 50%
total debt/equity (recent qtr) greater than 50%
13 week price change greater than 10%

After individually screening for companies appearing overvalued due to Balance sheet expansion, it yielded the following stocks to short:
EPE NRGP NRGY OFC EV EPB CNK ASCA MAA EVR

For the heavy shorting within the energy sector as part of the above picks, I will offset them with the following longs relating to energy/commodities:
LONG on PBT, BPT, SJT, GCC

blackfoot1967 (80.77) Submitted: 11/2/2008 3:46:58 PM : Start Price: $7.64 CNK Score: +47.22

in goood time and bad time people go to see them

IloveDwight (80.89) Submitted: 4/24/2008 11:57:30 PM : Start Price: $12.88 CNK Score: +15.11

During times of bad economy i feel more and more people will go to the movies, remember Shirley Temple it takes people's minds off things!!!!

SaltyGenes (66.25) Submitted: 4/21/2008 10:15:40 PM : Start Price: $12.76 CNK Score: +15.33

You have to remember that theaters are profitable at around 25% occupancy. The big problem historically has been that they stay empty most of the week, fill up on the weekends and have to turn people away from blockbusters. All of these problems are a result of the expense of making and transporting prints, which limit the manager's programming flexibility because the studios, who pay for the prints, will only send so many to each theater.

Transition to digital projectors in 2009-20011 will do for exhibitors what magically expanding/contracting airplanes would do for airlines. Managers will be able to expand and contract screens depending on demand, and fill up otherwise off nights with alternative content (sports, concerts, etc.) They'll be able to experiment with films that suit local tastes with very little risk, and cater to niche markets. If a digital print of a Chinese language film costs next to nothing and a manager has a big Chinese community nearby, why not experiment on off nights? This kind of flexibility is completely new and exciting to theater managers.

Then there is the new generation 3D. Even if it turns out to be a flop (which most people who have seen it think it will not), attendance will spike for a few years following their installation. All 300 million of us are going to want to experience it at least once.

The amount of leverage these companies have means that it doesn't take too much extra profit to move their share price. CNK also has about 25% of its theaters in Latin America, where the middle class is growing very quickly, competition is less fierce and they get a certain amount of dollar hedge.

The final thing that they have going for them is the huge moat. There was a period of over expansion starting in the 90s, but nowdays, it is very hard to find space to build a new theater in any of the important markets. They have some of the best real estate in the country.

It may take a year or two, but with a 5% dividend, we can afford to wait.

adoggsemipassive (90.86) Submitted: 4/14/2008 2:04:22 PM : Start Price: $11.60 CNK Score: -21.91

This seems to be the best choice to short out of the movies, I don't like it as a business due to the high price of movies, peoples gravitation towards watching at home, and just cutting back the entertainment budget in general through some turnbulence in the market.

Not to mention that they've done nothing but went down the past few years, maybe they are at an attractive valuation right now, but I dont see anything improving for them in the forseeable future.

Ajcoom01 (43.49) Submitted: 4/9/2008 1:11:19 PM : Start Price: $11.33 CNK Score: +25.93

Recession is a great time to bet on movie stocks.

josephhofmann (77.96) Submitted: 4/9/2008 9:03:26 AM : Start Price: $11.87 CNK Score: +21.71

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Funksta (50.38) Submitted: 7/27/2007 4:00:58 PM : Start Price: $14.00 CNK Score: +9.83

This company already makes as much money as AMC with about 1/6 the employees on less than half the revenue. I don't see any reason why this company can't become as big as Regal if not bigger. People will always go to the movies because the studios will insist on releasing films to theaters first and people want to see movies when they are new. Sure people have fancier and fancier home entertainment systems, but there will always be people who need to see it as soon as they can.

And plus, they have a good P/E, are near their all time low, and are just getting rolling. Also they are acquiring more companies to expand their business. Look for this stock to at least double in the next 3 years.