Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (USA) (CNQ)
A Canadian based senior independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing and sale of crude oil, NGLs, natural gas and bitumen production.
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Experienced, capable management in all aspects of business - finding, developing, and operating. Strong balance sheet. Great assets with long lives in 'safe' jurisdictions. Watch for continuing growth in free cash flow.
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Can triple output without buying anymore assets. Oh boy.
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I'm from Calgary AB and although they have good management their cost overruns are going to be enormous. CNRL is continuously overbidding and over paying to secure labour and materials in the oil sands. They currently have the largest oil sands project going on, Horizon a 10 billion dollar project that can't be managed. Cost on smaller projects are being over run by 30-50%, Shell, Suncor...etc. Plus there is uncertainty politically with Oil revenue royalties and green house emission caps. Last is currency exchange, CNRL sells oil in US currency but reports in CAN, if the dollar continues to outpace the appreciation of WTI earning will be missed.
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Oil and gas; huge oil sands project to come on stream, will lead to higher P/E as no need to find reserves; oil prices will increase over time; great history of adding shareholder value
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Buy what everyone isn't. To me that is energy. One major world event, will put energy in the driver seat again. Now I am NOT hoping for such an event. But, let's be honest (or should I say a realist)... we are at war. People are forgetting this... The chart to me is currently at a double bottom. I am doubling up my holding in this stock, as well as other Canadian energy stocks.
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Well the Canadian gov't messed up income trusts. US investors are going to need to put that cash back into the sector.
CNQ is a solid oil sands play to produce more crude to feed US SUV demand.
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The Oil fields of Alberta are ready to explode on to the market. No one is better poised to capitalize than CNQ. Under-valued by many, and with oil getting slammed right now, great time to buy.
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I have worked for this company for 10 years now. When times are tough, managment spends strategically. We come out on top, just wait for oil prices to come back, by then we will have swallowed some junior companies, who didn't have the stability to pull through the low oil prices. The shares are at less then half value now, I have alot of shares in the company, but I am tempted to morgage the house to get more, thats how sure I am.
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This stock is so cheap it borders on the absurd. CNQ's top notch management (with a long paper trail of success), and outstanding underlying long-term fundamentals represents a compelling 3-5yr investment opportunity.
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The price of oil and gas are inelastic. A small drop in demand caused a large drop in price. The intrinsic surplus of demand over supply hasn't changed. This stock will rebound after the panic stops. People who fled the market in fear of losing money on the way down will flock back to the market for fear of missing gains on the way up.
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http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=24568181
Enough said.
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Long term play, but I believe that the rocky road is still higher for the next five plus years.
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CNQ might be a good play if it only involved the oil sands, but it is far more than that. It is actually a diversified, established, money-making energy company with gas and oil holding holdings. I love this stock.
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BUSINESS SUMMARY
Canadian Natural Resources Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing, and sale of crude oil, natural gas liquids, natural gas, and bitumen. It also provides midstream activities that include pipeline operations and an electricity co-generation system. The company's crude oil and natural gas operations are focused in western Canada, the United Kingdom portion of the North Sea, and offshore West Africa. The company was formerly known as AEX Minerals Corporation and changed its name to Canadian Natural Resources Limited in 1975. The company was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Recs
Well run business with a low PE in a highly-profitable yet cyclical business currently in a down cycle. Public focus on alternative energy sources and terror-free oil will increase sales while improving technology will increase profitability.
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This dominant Canadian energy player should experience years of outsized returns. The first phase of the company's wholly owned Horizon oil sands project is on track for first production in 2008. The economics of Horizon's upgraded oil are promising, and the project should provide large resource opportunities with low maintenance capital requirements for several years to come.
CNQ might be a good play if it only involved the oil sands, but it is far more than that. It's actually a diversified, established, money-making energy company with gas and oil holdings so as to enable it to ride out various economic conditions.
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The Horizon Project is long term and expensive, but strong insider ownership shows they believe in the mission. An additional driver for CNQ could be increased takeover potential, especially if the big oil companies are impacted by the possible nationalization of the oil projects in Venezuela and start looking for other future sources.
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[David] Winters loves the management of Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), a petroleum company with a large stake in the oil sands of Alberta. Led by Murray Edwards, a team of managers has acquired large oil reserves cheaply. If oil prices don't budge, Winters figures Canadian Natural will still do fine. Plus, managers own $1 billion of company stock. "They're in the boat pulling the oars in the same direction as shareholders," notes Winters.
Kiplinger 6/11/07 "21 Stocks to Make You Rich"
Recs
P/E = 17.7xv.16.9x for S&P 500
Price/Sales = 4.9x v 1.2x
Profit Margin = 23.4% v 6.7%
Return on Equity = 23.0% v 29.2%
Return on Assets = 7.2% v 4.0%
Long Term Growth Rate = 15.0% v 12.6%
PEG Ratio = 1.2x v 1.3x
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I think oil has hit the bottom and will stabilize and slowly increase in price from here.

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