ConocoPhillips (COP)
An international, integrated energy company organized into six operating segments: Exploration and Production, Midstream, Refining and Marketing, LUKOIL Investment, Chemicals and Emerging Businesses.
Recs
Will provide a decent dividend for the next couple of years, price shouldn't drop much. Hold for now, buying time to study and decide whether to sell or continue to hold depending on how it participates in alternative energy.
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Earnings are down over 200% year over year. Yet the stock is above where it was last year, time for a drop in price.
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I bought NOV puts. So therefore, I red thumb...
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I recently dropped COP. Great company, good industry, very bad situation. Two main reasons:
1) Gas market is flooded with product, production is high (and many players will guarentee continued production), and price is dropping.
2) Conoco invested heavily into gas while the price was high. Price crashed. They are paying expensive debt with cheap product. This company has a cash flow problem and is headed for a crash.
Recs
Currant recession will last for a few years. Recovery will be slow. This company has a large overhead and engages in a business that generates large expenses years before any return is seen.
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I really like COP in the long run, but they're going to have to digest the $32 loss announced on 1-28-2009. So for now, it's Underperform for COP. When crude oil recovers, look for them to be a top performer again.
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CoP might not survive this energy cycle. Several resason low cash on hand and harsh credit with oil expected to hit low 20 in Feb or March I see Exxon buying them out.
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? not sure why.
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OIL EXPLORATION WILL STOP SO THE OIL EXECS CAN LINE THEIR POCKETS WITH OIL PROFITS
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oil
dollar strengthen oil falls
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if congress keeps butting their head into the oil business we could see them force new regulations on the companies. depending on who are next president is will have a large decision in the future of how much money these oil companies make.
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May have reached a refinery peak; and slows with Venz. problems.
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Time for a 20% slide in energy prices.
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watch oil supplies that have built up in summer pull world mkt price down. as oil price drops, COP will follow
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Too bloated over time
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Conoco has significant investment in Venezuela.This country has lately turned against american investments and in favor of Russian, chinese and iranian investments in their oil industry
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st sell - at least for a month or so
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earnings earnings
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Near-term pan on almost all things commodities. Going a bit against the crowd on these but will use these pans as a reminder of how much they have gone down near-term to possibly nibble in select commodities plays on decent pullbacks. I won't be too greedy on this CAPS pan and hopefully just use it to support my CAPS rating.

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