ConocoPhillips (COP)

I bought it recently at $42. Huge write downs this year have hurt the price and as usual the market has responded by revaluing it just above its book value. What is clear is that Warren Buffet knows how to identify a shareholder friendly company and COP is that in spades. These factors combined with the debacle of last years hedge fund squeeze of the oil commodity market and the subsequent crash in the commodity price mean that COP has shown some horrible numbers this year. Assets are written down, oil prices have taken a massive hit, Buffet has reduced his stake, to free up cash for bigger returns in the financial sector, and yet there's no reason why this company shouldn't be hugely cash generative in the medium term with reasonable oil prices. In the mean time, you benefit from a better than risk free return of 4.5% dividend on the dividend, and a bigger real term return as the company buys back it’s own stock.

No matter how much of the current run up in prices is being driven by speculation, increasing demand for energy and constraints on the supply side makes energy a strong play. COP is better positioned than most to continue to cream the S&P

COP is way undervalued at current price of oil. PE is ridiculously low for a big cap company like this. To make them even more attractive is they are the largest refiner in the U.S. at a time when refining is profitable.

COP has a 20% interest in russia's LUKOIL. Lukoil has hydrocarbon reserves second only to exxon mobile with a market cap of only 80 billion. As far as proven oil reserves they actually exceed exxon mobile. These proven reserves have risen more than 5% anually.

Conoco itself has massive refining capacity at a time when there is a huge refining shortage. New refinaries cost well over 3 billion, take years to construct, and take a lot of regulatory approval. It is very unlikely that any new refinaries will be constructed in the united states in the nerm term future.

Conoco also holds a 10% interest in the leading oil sand reserves in canada. If canada's sand oil reserves prove viable it will leave them with 150 billion barrels of reserves and make them the next saudi arabia to the north.

Undervalued on just about every measurement basis you can get. Their stock price assumes $30-40 oil prices, and we are not getting anywhere near there. The production drop announcement is overblown, and their acquisition of Burlington is undervalued.

? not sure why.

This financially secure company will benefit from high energy costs over the next year. It has plenty of income to support it's current 2.1% dividend. This should be a good place to keep some money if you believe markets will be weak over the next year.

ConocoPhillips is one company that is serious about expanding their energy portfolio. They have just released more in-depth details on their plans to develop their newly purchased Boulder site. In addition to that, they're an Oil Company. This means they have the infrastructure in place to support their commitment and drive to this operation.

I anticipate that COP will be the leading player, or at least one of the top players, in the diversified energy market we will see in this coming decade. In the meantime, their oil revenue will continue to support their growth.

Conoco Phillips trades at 6X earnings and is wildly profitable. Compare this to their peers such as Chevron (9X) , Exxon Mobil or BP (both around 11X) and you see a bargain. Throw in a decent dividend (current yield is 2.2%) and you have a nice long-term stock.

ConocoPhillips, the name goes with the number three oil company in the US and the sixth largest publicly trade oil company in the world. Adding to the highlights, it is the second largest refiner and the largest natural gas producer in North America. The Company operates as an integrated company and has presence in the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream segments.

The Company is primarily dependent on the oil and natural gas prices which are highly volatile in nature. The NYMEX crude oil futures prices for the next 12 months hover around $64 per barrel as compared to $56 per barrel for the near month future directly increasing the company’s top-line. The prices are dominated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries better known as OPEC, which pumps approximately 40% of the world oil. Further, production cut anticipated by OPEC in its upcoming meeting, is likely to fuel up the prices.

ConocoPhillips has already eyed the possible drop in the production levels in the North America and Europe which constitute almost 80% of its oil and gas production. The Company has diversified its operation by entering Russia, which has a huge future potential. However, the company will face high political risks by operating in this region. In addition to that it has also announced an equal partnership with Encana Corp., Canada’s largest energy company, to develop its Foster Creek and Christina Lake oil sand projects. This venture will give ConocoPhillips access to the lucrative Canadian oil sand market. In a snapshot the company will step up the ladder at the blink of an eye.

Oil isn't finished. It's only taking a break. The continued belief that the Saudis can open the tap and make up any supply deficiency is technically wrong. World demand is using up world supply. New oil is not being found fast enough. COP is the major that is most levered to the price of oil. They have access to Russian reserves and have beefed up their exposure to natural gas. Political unrest in the oil producing world + China and India drinking up all the oil they can get = hello higher oil prices. $30 oil is only a memory now.

Virtually no exploration, no new big oil fields to develop, virtually no people working on technology, LUKOIL - moves at the Russian pace rahter than what COP wants, some refining managers may have never been to a refinery - headed for trouble; no clear path for next chairman, POOR dividend relative to other oils. Sell your COP and buy CVX to increase earnings by 50%

1) Estimate of future growth have significant impact on my valuation of COP. If I use average analysts' growth estimate if about 7% for the next five years, COP is currently priced slightly below its FMV of $67. However, its historical BVPS growth indicates much stronger long-term growth of the company, putting current stock price at deep discount of its fair value.

2) Current 6.7x P/E is at the low end of historical its P/E. If P/E go up by 1x, COP stock price will go up by $10.

3) Per Berkshire Hathaway's annual report on March 1, 2007, it holds 1.1% of COP's stock. I estimated that BRK's average purchase price of around $58.

I would trust Buffet's judgement even if I don't know too much about the oil and gas industry. I believe COP's stock price will go up in the long term

Sticking with this pick even though it's down 7% from my recommend date. If this drops below 60 bucks I'll buy more at the discount. I already own this under 60 and think for the long term this will be a good buy.

Average P/E for the Integrated Oil and Gas giants is 8.6. Exxon Mobile sports a P/E just over 10.

COP's P/E is 5.38. Holding income steady, the stock goes up 60% to come in line with the industry average P/E.

I know everyone is excited that oil (and subsequently gasoline) prices have been coming down lately, but does anyone really think prices aren't headed back up in the longer term?

COP is simply undervalued.

SAFE BET WITH MANAGEMENT AND CURRENT RESERVES.

an oil play- well run -what else is there to say?

More oil companies, heavily into refining which is short capacity, low PE ratio provides lots of up potential. Looking around low PE seems to be associated with risks in foreign investments. I don't think these risks are that high

buying back stock with free cash flow...fcf over
$ 7B per year...able to continue to increase dividend and to have share buyback increase...with these two initiatives have rate of return of 4% along with capital appreciation..