iPath DJ AIG Livestock TR Sub-Idx ETN (AMEX:COW)

MOOOOOOOOO!

Record drought in Texas forcing cuts in herds, pushing prices downward in the short term. Should be followed by rises in beef prices in 2012.

As oil prices increase, people will do less discretionary spending. Beef is expensive, producers are dependent on cheap oil, and there are cheaper alternatives to eating beef (like beans, chicken etc)

Is It Time to be Bullish on Cattle?

In my last post: Is It Time to be Bullish on Cattle? I said this:

binve says "Moo" [translation: If it makes a higher low at support ~64-65, then there is an inverted H&S setup that targets ~80, which is also the 38% retrace from the top]..... cows have a very concise language, leaves more time for grazing.

Here was the chart from the last post

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/S7qJaJzeAMI/AAAAAAAACbs/hik91An6XgE/s1600/0binve-001-201.png

The last week has been showing a bottom being put into place where I was anticipating. Here is what the chart looks like today:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OpWmYZm7O8I/TBkAlqzwiKI/AAAAAAAAC5E/mifNWhB5NUk/s1600/0binve-001-201.png

The ETN COW is showing a similar pattern. It somewhat tracks this underlying index (i.e. it is supposed to but doesn't do a very good job all the time).

So, is it now time to be bullish on cattle? binve says "Mrraaa Mrrooooo mo moo Moooo" [translation: yes]

Disclosure: I am long COW

Nancy pick

Beef prices have never been lower.

Lots of cows being taken to market by farmers due to low milk prices which depresses meat prices. This will eventually end and there will be a shortage.

Continuing issue of new stock will water down S&P500. Increasing population making less money will make practical items more utilized, more valuable. The quickening slaughter of livestock will eventually come to an abrupt halt, as this Nation cannot wipe out our cows/hogs indefinitely. Supply will dry up not just on livestock, but also byproducts (& milk). Lower middle class population increasing!

Supply will dwindle in coming months as farmers fight higher grain prices by taking livestock to market.

The grain prices have gone to extreme highs and it is causing some problems in Rural America. Feeding livestock has gone up and is forcing farmers to take extreme measures to help accomadate those feeding costs but as time goes on people will learn how to more cost effectively accomadte the high feed prices and things will level out. I dont see this happening in the next year, not untill the grain and gas prices level out.

there has been a huge run up in almost every commodity out there- livestock won't be left out of the equation. next time you roll through your local drive-thru for a quick burger think about what it costs to feed that cow, transport their food, meat, etc., and maintain large areas of land for the grazing of livestock... Many of these costs have risen, especially as of late... Plus, global demand for livestock is on the rise and will continue to grow for years and years... All of this adds up to a pricey "MMMMMMOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO" ($$$)!!!!!!

Lots of young cows sent to the market over last 12 months = depressed meat prices

No cows left to slaughter = higher prices

Food riots in 3rd world = insane profits.

Meat prices will go through the roof once they slaughter them all since the price of feed is too much.

Trader Mark. Meat is the next shoe to drop? "All commodities are being inflated"

I can't resist it...I have no choice but to be cow (bullish) on this stock. How can you go wrong when your ticker symbol matches your business like that? Besides, with milk and meat prices going through the roof, these guys have to be beneficiaries somewhere along the line. It doesn't show any signs of getting better any time soon, so I'm jumping on and riding it to $46.50.

Livestock hasn't yet taken part in the commodity boom

Selling cattle because you can't afford to feed them corn only causes the price to escalate in the future.

This ETF is supposed to track live cattle and lean hog price with AIG livestock index. live cattle price has risen 20% since march, 2003 (http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LC/M) . Lean hog price has also slightly risen (http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LH/M), but the AIG livestock index showed a 20% drop since march, 2003 (http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJAIGLI). Why does the index performance contradicts with the underlying security performance? Can anyone tell me how this index works? I would like to long livestock, but I don't want to lose money when meat price does go up.